on coping with C19 lockdown

[scottmitchell74]

The minute someone references "the MSM" I stop reading.

Good thing it was at the very end!

[Tuariki]

After 115 days of being "locked up", Aucklanders will,
be permitted to leave Auckland in 6 hours time.

[gm]

The minute someone references "the MSM" I stop reading.

[scottmitchell74]

The over 400K excess US deaths for 2020 are indicative (albeit not conclusive) of the actual COVID death toll for 2020 being equal to or somewhat greater than the reported 370K. And that 370K missed several thousand early in the pandemic when Covid testing was scarce, and over 99.9% of those 370K deaths were in March or later.

Unless you have some actual facts and statistics on how many Covid-attributed deaths are bogus, I'm going with 370K. The 370K in 10 months was with various forms of mitigation such as working from home and restrictions on sporting events, concerts, cruise ships shut down etc.

So that 370K in 10 months, or 37K/month, is a lower bound for what the death toll would be in a free-for-all USA -- no work from home, no masks, no vaccines, no audience restrictions for concerts and sports, no restaurant shutdowns etc.

Using 37K/month, that's 89 months to kill 3.3M people or 1% of the US population. If a complete lack of restrictions increased the death toll from 37K/month to 55K/month, that's enough to kill 1% of the US population over the course of 5 years.

Since we've entered a darker vein: Would that not slow down as the most vulnerable are taken? At a certain point the disease would burn through those most at risk. Those #'s won't extrapolate as a higher and higher % of the survivors are healthy(er).

[18.99s]

Please realize something else that isn't talked about in the lay press but the medical world knows about it. Doctors and hospitals are paid by the government in a lot of cases. We/they get paid by submitting diagnosis codes (ICD-10 codes for diagnoses or CPT codes for surgery). Adding a COVID-19 diagnosis to a patient's list of diagnostic codes will benefit the hospital by up to $15,000 in some states (it varies state-to-state because of the "gypsy" [GPCI = geographic practice cost index]), so it is encouraged by hospital administrators, even if such diagnosis has nothing to do with the patient's illness course or treatment, or even if they are minimally symptomatic. When you add in that sort of billing manipulation, it gets even harder to sort out who really has symptomatic disease and who does not.

The over 400K excess US deaths for 2020 are indicative (albeit not conclusive) of the actual COVID death toll for 2020 being equal to or somewhat greater than the reported 370K. And that 370K missed several thousand early in the pandemic when Covid testing was scarce, and over 99.9% of those 370K deaths were in March or later.

Unless you have some actual facts and statistics on how many Covid-attributed deaths are bogus, I'm going with 370K. The 370K in 10 months was with various forms of mitigation such as working from home and restrictions on sporting events, concerts, cruise ships shut down etc.

So that 370K in 10 months, or 37K/month, is a lower bound for what the death toll would be in a free-for-all USA -- no work from home, no masks, no vaccines, no audience restrictions for concerts and sports, no restaurant shutdowns etc.

Using 37K/month, that's 89 months to kill 3.3M people or 1% of the US population. If a complete lack of restrictions increased the death toll from 37K/month to 55K/month, that's enough to kill 1% of the US population over the course of 5 years.

[scottmitchell74]

You're making a lot of assumptions to get the numbers where you want them. I agree there are a lot of cases, probably many that have not been reported. However, massaging the #s as you are doing in the medical journal world is called data dredging and would get your article rejected, if this was an article submitted to a medical journal.

Please realize something else that isn't talked about in the lay press but the medical world knows about it. Doctors and hospitals are paid by the government in a lot of cases. We/they get paid by submitting diagnosis codes (ICD-10 codes for diagnoses or CPT codes for surgery). Adding a COVID-19 diagnosis to a patient's list of diagnostic codes will benefit the hospital by up to $15,000 in some states (it varies state-to-state because of the "gypsy" [GPCI = geographic practice cost index]), so it is encouraged by hospital administrators, even if such diagnosis has nothing to do with the patient's illness course or treatment, or even if they are minimally symptomatic. When you add in that sort of billing manipulation, it gets even harder to sort out who really has symptomatic disease and who does not.

This has been very, very obvious from very early on, but would be considered a "right-wing" talking point, or worse, shouted down as a conspiracy. What it is is evil, and has lead to way more fear and so many tendrils of trouble and problems that it might take decades, or more, to unravel it all. That kind of fear-mongering created situations economically, psychologically and socially that can't be put back in the box.

Thanks bambam1729 for being candid and sharing. You won't find info like this on the MSM.

[bambam1729]

There's already been 50M confirmed cases in the US since the start of the pandemic. Add the asymptomatic and mild cases which weren't tested, and the true number is probably somewhere around 100M. Then add the cases that would have occurred if the vaccines didn't exist, and that brings the total to maybe 130M. Then add another 35M cases that would have occurred without any precautions (masks, work from home, avoiding crowds, etc.), and that's 165M or half the US population. It's not so far fetched that the total could get close to 100% over 4 or 5 years if everybody followed the anti-vaxxers and Covid deniers, acting as if nothing should be done because the survival rate is 99% (not to mention those who spew BS like "99.9872% survival rate" or claim that Covid is a hoax).

You're making a lot of assumptions to get the numbers where you want them. I agree there are a lot of cases, probably many that have not been reported. However, massaging the #s as you are doing in the medical journal world is called data dredging and would get your article rejected, if this was an article submitted to a medical journal.

Please realize something else that isn't talked about in the lay press but the medical world knows about it. Doctors and hospitals are paid by the government in a lot of cases. We/they get paid by submitting diagnosis codes (ICD-10 codes for diagnoses or CPT codes for surgery). Adding a COVID-19 diagnosis to a patient's list of diagnostic codes will benefit the hospital by up to $15,000 in some states (it varies state-to-state because of the "gypsy" [GPCI = geographic practice cost index]), so it is encouraged by hospital administrators, even if such diagnosis has nothing to do with the patient's illness course or treatment, or even if they are minimally symptomatic. When you add in that sort of billing manipulation, it gets even harder to sort out who really has symptomatic disease and who does not.

[TN1965]

Man whose wife won a court battle to treat his COVID-19 with ivermectin has died

https://news.yahoo.com/man-whose-wif...ycsrp_catchall

Keith Smith, whose wife had gone to court to have his COVID-19 infection treated with ivermectin, died Sunday evening, a week after he received his first dose of the controversial drug.

[18.99s]

The only problem with your argument is you're assuming 100% of the population gets infected in the first place with those numbers - its nowhere near that contagious.

There's already been 50M confirmed cases in the US since the start of the pandemic. Add the asymptomatic and mild cases which weren't tested, and the true number is probably somewhere around 100M. Then add the cases that would have occurred if the vaccines didn't exist, and that brings the total to maybe 130M. Then add another 35M cases that would have occurred without any precautions (masks, work from home, avoiding crowds, etc.), and that's 165M or half the US population. It's not so far fetched that the total could get close to 100% over 4 or 5 years if everybody followed the anti-vaxxers and Covid deniers, acting as if nothing should be done because the survival rate is 99% (not to mention those who spew BS like "99.9872% survival rate" or claim that Covid is a hoax).

[bambam1729]

They also forget that a 99% survival rate for a very highly infectious disease would mean, that without the various mitigating measures, you would be looking at at over 70m deaths worldwide, over 3m in the US, about 650,000 in the UK etc.

The only problem with your argument is you're assuming 100% of the population gets infected in the first place with those numbers - its nowhere near that contagious.

[18.99s]

They also forget that a 99% survival rate for a very highly infectious disease would mean, that without the various mitigating measures, you would be looking at at over 70m deaths worldwide, over 3m in the US, about 650,000 in the UK etc.

And they wouldn't buy a car if they knew 1000 of its 100,000 units had a fatal explosion within the first year. Most wouldn't even buy that car at 60% off. They'd wonder why that model wasn't totally recalled long before the deaths reached that high. 1% is a pretty big deal when it involves death.

[Trickstat]

Meanwhile, the Covid deniers continue to shout "99% survival rate! Nothing to worry about!" as if nonfatal long-term side effects of Covid are unimportant or nonexistent. Meanwhile, they're scared to take a vaccine with a 99.9999% survival rate.

They also forget that a 99% survival rate for a very highly infectious disease would mean, that without the various mitigating measures, you would be looking at at over 70m deaths worldwide, over 3m in the US, about 650,000 in the UK etc.

[1.609]

Yep, and unfortunately Pfizer, Astra-Zeneca, and all the other pharmaceutical manufacturers still haven't been able to develop the STUPID vaccine.

Ha ha, that sounds like a classic anti-vaxxer. I think you mean the stupidity vaccine. ;-)

[bambam1729]

Yep, and unfortunately Pfizer, Astra-Zeneca, and all the other pharmaceutical manufacturers still haven't been able to develop the STUPID vaccine.

You can't fix stupid.

[Tuariki]

Meanwhile, the Covid deniers continue to shout "99% survival rate! Nothing to worry about!" as if nonfatal long-term side effects of Covid are unimportant or nonexistent. Meanwhile, they're scared to take a vaccine with a 99.9999% survival rate.

Yep, and unfortunately Pfizer, Astra-Zeneca, and all the other pharmaceutical manufacturers still haven't been able to develop the STUPID vaccine.