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  • Some good podcasts on the vaccines, vaccine logistics, and vaccination:

    Planet Money - Before The Shot In The Arm

    Coming up with a miracle vaccine in record time was hard. Making it in quantities never seen before will be harder. But the logistics.... There are so many things that have to happen before the shot that protects you from coronavirus gets into your arm.

    https://www.npr.org/2020/12/02/94171...hot-in-the-arm

    Johns Hopkins Public Health On Call - The New Technology Behind COVID-19 RNA Vaccines and What This Means for Future Outbreaks

    http://johnshopkinssph.libsyn.com/21...est_id=1899134

    Johns Hopkins Public Health On Call - The Ongoing Process of Determining COVID-19 Vaccines Safety

    http://johnshopkinssph.libsyn.com/21...est_id=1899134

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    • Originally posted by Atticus View Post
      It says I'm behind 391,100 (1M total) others in my county, but given the wariness and procrastination factors, I'd bet I'm easily in the top 100,000. Might be Feb or March?
      Initially a lack of trust in the vaccine is going to reduce the waiting time for those wanting to get the vaccine.

      Comment


      • assuming the rate of production stays somewhat constant, doesn't it stand to reason that the line is going to come to a crashing halt x weeks after the program starts, when the people who have had the first round need their boosters and they then insert back into the line ahead of people who haven't had their first?

        Comment


        • Originally posted by gh View Post
          assuming the rate of production stays somewhat constant, doesn't it stand to reason that the line is going to come to a crashing halt x weeks after the program starts, when the people who have had the first round need their boosters and they then insert back into the line ahead of people who haven't had their first?
          3 weeks as I understand it.

          We're about to see how good each country/state/locality is at logistics and optimizing throughput. Lean production models are quite good at both of these but we've never run one at this scale. If they optimize for throughput they will not start at 100% capacity. They'll look 3+ weeks down the line and plan to get to as close to 100% as possible at that point and stay there for the duration. Communication and lead time when there are changes in availability for a locality make or break these systems. The good news is that most of these are existing systems that are being scaled up, not built from scratch.
          bhall
          Former Resident Geek
          Last edited by bhall; 12-06-2020, 11:38 PM.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by bhall View Post

            .... If they optimize for throughput they will not start at 100% capacity. They'll look 3+ weeks down the line and plan to get to as close to 100% as possible at that point and stay there for the duration.....
            d'oh! pretty simple solution

            but now I have another one I'm eager to see the answer to: with accepting the honor of a shot completely voluntary (at least at this point), how the heck are they going to figure out where to set the eligibility points, shy of having "everybody" registered with not only their eligibility-profile but also whether or not they want to be part of the pool?

            Where's the list of who in your county is eligible for the first tranche? How long do county officials wait before they decide that everybody in that first group who's going to want a shot has already had one and they open up to group 2? I'm glad there are people who actually do this kind of stuff for a living; i'm getting a headache just thinking about it.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by gh View Post

              d'oh! pretty simple solution

              but now I have another one I'm eager to see the answer to: with accepting the honor of a shot completely voluntary (at least at this point), how the heck are they going to figure out where to set the eligibility points, shy of having "everybody" registered with not only their eligibility-profile but also whether or not they want to be part of the pool?

              Where's the list of who in your county is eligible for the first tranche? How long do county officials wait before they decide that everybody in that first group who's going to want a shot has already had one and they open up to group 2? I'm glad there are people who actually do this kind of stuff for a living; i'm getting a headache just thinking about it.
              My wife thinks in the same fashion. She gets near to being overwhelmed by information regarding the virus, treatment and vaccine and the changes within those subjects. I'm a bit more roll with the punches in personality which, on this subject, seems to drive her nuts.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by gh View Post
                assuming the rate of production stays somewhat constant, doesn't it stand to reason that the line is going to come to a crashing halt x weeks after the program starts, when the people who have had the first round need their boosters and they then insert back into the line ahead of people who haven't had their first?
                That partly depends on whether the second shot is identical to the first. If the 2nd shots are any different in content or dosage, people who show up for their first shot won't be in contention with people returning for their second (unless there are other constraints in delivery such as a shortage of medical personnel).

                Comment


                • Originally posted by gh View Post
                  Where's the list of who in your county is eligible for the first tranche? How long do county officials wait before they decide that everybody in that first group who's going to want a shot has already had one and they open up to group 2?
                  Sounds like it could be like the clusterf..k that occurs when large groups with different group numbers on their boarding passes line up to board an airplane.

                  I'm also wondering about the logistics/mechanics of issuing each of us our vaccination card. Will the cards be easily counterfeitable, or will they have chips/bar code to combat that? I don't want some anti-vaxxer to get on a train/plane with me when they make the cards mandatory for travelling.
                  J Rorick
                  Senior Member
                  Last edited by J Rorick; 12-07-2020, 04:58 PM.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by J Rorick View Post

                    ... I don't want some anti-vaxxer to get on a train/plane with me when they make the cards mandatory for travelling.
                    ooo, that's a delightful recipe for disaster

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by J Rorick View Post
                      occurs when large groups with different group numbers on their boarding passes line up to board an airplane.
                      I never understood the logic of standing in line to board. I sit and wait till the line is down to one and then walk right on. Who wants to be on the plane longer than you have to be? You already know what seat you're in.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by J Rorick View Post
                        I don't want some anti-vaxxer to get on a train/plane with me when they make the cards mandatory for travelling.
                        Do they give cards to anti-vaxxers? Does it say, 'Hi, I'm Stupid. Please put me in the Cargo Hold'?

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                        • Originally posted by Atticus View Post
                          I never understood the logic of standing in line to board. I sit and wait till the line is down to one and then walk right on. Who wants to be on the plane longer than you have to be? You already know what seat you're in.
                          People are afraid there won't be any overhead storage space left - many people carry on a lot more stuff than they used to, because of the bag charges and fewer non-stop flights. My wife and I generally restrict our flying to cross-country and overseas. So there's loads of carry-ons on those trips (not ours), as opposed to shorter commuter flights.

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                          • there's also the limited access to blankets and pillows; first come, first serve

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                            • Originally posted by gh View Post
                              there's also the limited access to blankets and pillows; first come, first serve
                              I have never been turned down when I ask an attendant for one mid-flight, Yes, all the bins are jammed. I have never put anything there. My back-pack (w/computer) goes under my seat.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Atticus View Post
                                I never understood the logic of standing in line to board. I sit and wait till the line is down to one and then walk right on. Who wants to be on the plane longer than you have to be? You already know what seat you're in.
                                not on Southwest (unless it has changed for Covid).

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