the no-nonsense, nothing-but-the-facts-m'am C19 thread

[gh]

Due to excessive misbehavior (and you know who you are), our original thread will remain dead.

Please take the hint and use this thread to cover ongoing developments on the pandemic front in the proper fashion.

Please stay on topic.

Most importantly, the first suggestion of name-calling and you're gone.

Thanks for understanding.

[gh]

global death toll passes 250,000

https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-covid-19-live-updates-may-5-2020-103408222.html

[Conor Dary]

A worthwhile short video on the state of affairs in the US...


Watch @ScottGottliebMD'sf ull interview with @savannahguthrie
about what could be “the new normal” as states are starting to reopen even though cases of the coronavirus continue to rise in certain states.

https://mobile.twitter.com/TODAYshow/status/1257631716392534016

[Conor Dary]

"The reality is we can predict cases are going to go up over the course of May," says @ScottGottliebMD
on #COVID19. "As we start to reopen the economy, restart activity...you've got to expect cases are going to go up, and hospitalizations are going to go up."

https://mobile.twitter.com/SquawkCNBC/status/1257618468163260416

[Conor Dary]

Meanwhile....

Americans widely oppose reopening most businesses, despite easing of restrictions in some states, Post-U. Md. poll finds

Opposition to reopening among Americans in new WaPo/U.Md. poll:
82% movie theaters
78% gyms
74% dine-in restaurants
70% gun stores
69% barber shops/hair salons

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/americans-widely-oppose-reopening-most-businesses-despite-easing-of-restrictions-in-some-states-post-u-md-poll-finds/2020/05/04/495ddc3a-8e36-11ea-9e23-6914ee410a5f_story.html#click=https://t.co/LEG3wLmfQS

[Trickstat]

global death toll passes 250,000

https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-covid-19-live-updates-may-5-2020-103408222.html

69,000 in US and 32,000 in UK makes about 40% in just 2 countries.

[gm]

69,000 in US and 32,000 in UK makes about 40% in just 2 countries.

What is really interesting is the death rate by population. Britain is twice as bad as the US, but both are far behind Belgium.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-per-million?year=2020-05-05

[bhall]

69,000 in US and 32,000 in UK makes about 40% in just 2 countries.

116,516 Americans died in WWI. As of right now, we are on project to hit that number of COVID-19 deaths in mid-June.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United...ilitary_deaths

[Conor Dary]

Meanwhile...at 538....

This article literally doesn't mention how the amount of testing has increased by ~60% within in the past few weeks. That does make the situation particularly great, but it's context that can't be omitted in any discussion of cases increasing/decreasing.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1257686577926623235

[Conor Dary]

Meanwhile....

Criminal lawyers battle to survive in practices

Social distancing measures to tackle Covid-19 have had a dire impact on the livelihoods of criminal lawyers in England and Wales as their workload has “fallen off a cliff” because jury trials have been halted, MPs heard yesterday.

Amanda Pinto QC, who chairs the Bar Council, pointed to a “frankly shocking” survey of more than 3,500 barristers which showed 56 per cent of all advocates could not survive another six months in practice if the situation continued, adding that workloads for criminal barristers had “fallen off a cliff”.

FT

[Conor Dary]

Meanwhile....

Tanzanian leader accused of suppressing death statistics

President blames ‘imperialists’ for the large number of positive results in tests

Tanzania’s government is covering up the true extent of the coronavirus pandemic with secret burials at night while hospitals overflow and three parliamentarians are thought to have died from the disease, say doctors, opposition leaders and activists.

President John Magufuli, who has spent much of the crisis in his home village 750 miles west of Dar es Salaam, the commercial capital, denies the virus is serious and has urged people to stay at work and attend religious ceremonies.

On Sunday, in a national address, Mr Magufuli accused the national laboratory of fabricating results under the influence of what he called imperialists. “We only see them releasing positive, positive, positive results,” he said.

FT

[TN1965]

What is really interesting is the death rate by population. Britain is twice as bad as the US, but both are far behind Belgium.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/t...ear=2020-05-05

Coronavirus: Why so many people are dying in Belgium

"Belgian officials say they are counting in a way that no other country in the world is currently doing: counting deaths in hospitals and care homes, but including deaths in care homes that are suspected, not confirmed, as Covid-19 cases."

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-europe-52491210

[Conor Dary]

538 talks about that..

A lot of this news coverage winds up *punishing* states for doing more testing, because if you do more testing, you find more cases and therefore get worse headlines. So it's not just bad reporting; it creates poor incentives since we need more tests.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1257687716596236288

[lonewolf]

I suspect the validity of international statistics are a function of accuracy of reporting by individual nations.

[Halfmiler2]

Since the other thread on C19 was stopped for political commentary, I’ll post the simple daily numbers here for a while. The way it works is that Governor Cuomo (NY) gives NY daily numbers about midday and Governor Murphy (NJ) usually gives daily NJ about 1pm. We then add the other numbers about the same time so we can do day-to-day comparisons.

I do the Bergen County numbers because it is my county, the largest of 21 NJ counties, and across the GW bridge from NYC.

We’ve made a change: we used to give NYC numbers issued directly by NYC but those numbers tended to be erratic if given on weekends, and also include “probable” virus deaths that the CDC and the states treat as a separate category. So we are now giving the NYC numbers that New York State releases.

The Monday (5/4/20) early afternoon numbers:

Worldwide: 3,529K(+2%)cases & 248K (+1%) deaths
The USA: 1,191K(+2%) cases & 68,678(+2%) deaths
New York: 319K (+2%) cases & 19,189 (+2%) deaths
NYC City: 174K (+1%) cases & 13,538(+0%) deaths
New Jersey: 128K (+1%) cases & 7,910 (+1%) deaths
Bergen Co.: 16,282(+1%)cases & 1,215 (+0%) deaths

New Jersey said that their daily numbers may have been understated because of a temporary network outage.

The Tuesday (5/5/20) early afternoon numbers:

Worldwide: 3,584K (+1%) cases & 252K (+2%) deaths
The USA: 1,208K (+2%) cases & 69,680(+1%) deaths
New York: 321K (+1%) cases & 19,415 (+1%) deaths
NYC Only: 174K (+0%) cases & 13,538 (+0%) deaths
New Jersey: 132K (+2%)cases & 8,244 (+4%) deaths
Bergen Co.: 16,460(+1%)cases & 1,261 (+4%) deaths

The percentage increase in NJ & Bergen ticked up as catch-up after the undercount of the previous day totals due to the partial network outage. About a half of NJ deaths are from long-term care facility (a growing %) but only about 1/6 of the reported cases.

NYC numbers continue to be erratic with no new daily numbers to report today as yet.