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the no-nonsense, nothing-but-the-facts-m'am C19 thread

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  • The risks are almost exclusively on the elderly, all efforts in every State should be focused on keeping the virus away from the elderly.

    Trying to control teenagers might be a waste of time and resources, a perfect fools errand when those resources rightly allocated can save lives. We must keep the virus away from the sick and weak and elderly.

    https://www.worldometers.info/corona...-demographics/

    Massachusetts provides a very stark picture of the risks to the elderly:
    https://www.boston.com/news/coronavi...ovid-19-deaths

    https://c.o0bc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Screen-Shot-2020-07-27-at-3.24.45-PM$large.jpg

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    • A man who thought the coronavirus was a 'scamdemic' wrote a powerful essay warning against virus deniers after he hosted a party and got his entire family sick

      A conservative man in Texas has written a powerful essay saying he once believed the coronavirus was a hoax, but has now had a dramatic change of heart after he and his entire family tested positive for COVID-19 following a party at his house.

      https://www.yahoo.com/news/man-thoug...115116341.html

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      • Covid-19 infections leave an impact on the heart, raising concerns about lasting damage

        Two new studies from Germany paint a sobering picture of the toll that Covid-19 takes on the heart, raising the specter of long-term damage after people recover, even if their illness was not severe enough to require hospitalization.

        One study examined the cardiac MRIs of 100 people who had recovered from Covid-19 and compared them to heart images from 100 people who were similar but not infected with the virus. Their average age was 49 and two-thirds of the patients had recovered at home. More than two months later, infected patients were more likely to have troubling cardiac signs than people in the control group: 78 patients showed structural changes to their hearts, 76 had evidence of a biomarker signaling cardiac injury typically found after a heart attack, and 60 had signs of inflammation.

        These were relatively young, healthy patients who fell ill in the spring, Valentina Puntmann, who led the MRI study, pointed out in an interview. Many of them had just returned from ski vacations. None of them thought they had anything wrong with their hearts.

        “The fact that 78% of ‘recovered’ [patients] had evidence of ongoing heart involvement means that the heart is involved in a majority of patients, even if Covid-19 illness does not scream out with the classical heart symptoms, such as anginal chest pain,” she told STAT. She is a cardiologist at University Hospital Frankfurt. “In my view, the relatively clear onset of Covid-19 illness provides an opportunity to take proactive action and to look for heart involvement early.”

        https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/27/...b5ad-152128386

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        • Originally posted by user4 View Post
          The risks are almost exclusively on the elderly, all efforts in every State should be focused on keeping the virus away from the elderly.
          That is a completely disingenuous and overly simplistic argument. People don't just die from this disease. They have long lasting complications that are not yet fully understood. The sick and the weak are often front line workers in our economy and are disproportionately people of color in my state. Below are charts from Georgia data. Georgia is roughly 52% White, 32% Black, and 6% Hispanic.

          ga-deaths.png

          ga-deaths-by-race.png
          Last edited by bhall; 07-28-2020, 07:53 PM.

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          • Originally posted by Halfmiler2 View Post

            The Monday (7/27/20) early afternoon numbers:

            Worldwide:16,396K(+2%)cases &650K(+1%) deaths
            The USA :4,331K(+0%) cases & 147K(+0%) deaths
            New York:413K(+0%) cases & 32,619 (+0%) deaths
            NYC only: 224K(+0%)cases & 16,295(+0%) deaths
            New Jersey:180K(+0%)cases & 15,804(+0%) deaths
            Bergen Co.:20,280(+0%)cases & 2,045(+%) deaths

            The numbers are mostly pretty good except the Rt in NJ after several days at 0.84 jumped over the key 1.0 to 1.09 meaning the virus is expanding not retracting. However, Monday numbers are often skewed by late weekend reporting, so we will have to see the Tuesday/Wednesday numbers.

            NJ had 446 new cases & 17 new confirmed deaths.
            NY had 608 new cases & 11 new confirmed deaths.
            The Tuesday (7/28/20) early afternoon numbers:

            Worldwide: 16,540(+1%)cases & 654K(+1%) deaths
            The USA : 4,399K (+0%)cases & 148K(+1%) deaths
            New York: 413K (+0%) cases & 32,645(+0%) deaths
            NYC only: 224K (+0%) cases & 16,300(+0%) deaths
            New Jersey:180K(+0%)cases & 15,825(+0%) deaths
            Bergen Co.:20,341(+0%)cases & 2,046(+0%) deaths

            NJ had 565 new cases & 24 new Confirmed Deaths.
            NY had 534 new cases & 26 new Confirmed Deaths.

            The Rt for NJ ticked up again to 1.14 but its positivity rate went under 2%. NJ upped its quarantine list to 34 states and Puerto Rico.
            Last edited by Halfmiler2; 07-29-2020, 12:05 AM.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by bhall View Post
              That is a completely disingenuous and overly simplistic argument. People don't just die from this disease. They have long lasting complications that are not yet fully understood. The sick and the weak are often front line workers in our economy and are disproportionately people of color in my state. Below are charts from Georgia data. Georgia is roughly 52% White, 32% Black, and 6% Hispanic.

              ga-deaths.png

              ga-deaths-by-race.png
              It looks like Georgia is quite like Massachusetts, deaths are overwhelmingly from the elderly. Not sure how you can miss the most glaring, stark and deadly serious facts of this pandemic. If there are issues not yet fully understood is it disingenuous to use them to hide the most deadly and obvious facts. Look at the charts from Georgia, the people that are dying are the aged. It cant be any clearer. All efforts must be taken to guard the elderly from this disease and that obviously includes all demographic subcategories of the elderly.
              Last edited by user4; 07-28-2020, 08:43 PM.

              Comment


              • Meanwhile....in the FT today...this doesn't sound good...

                New Delhi accused of ‘unrealistic hope’ over Covid-19 vaccine

                Narendra Modi, below, has taken a personal interest in India’s quest to develop a coronavirus vaccine, chairing several meetings of a government task force on the issue. But a recent Indian Council for Medical Research letter declaring that it — in collaboration with a Hyderabad-based pharmaceutical company, Bharat Biotech — would launch a coronavirus vaccine “for public health use latest by August 15, 2020, on completion of all clinical trials” sent shockwaves across India.

                To scientists and public health experts, the tone and details of the letter — sent on July 2 to hospitals chosen to participate in clinical trials and then leaked on social media — suggested intense political pressure on researchers to rush through the development of an indigenous vaccine, compromising the rigorous scientific process intended to prove it was safe and effective. August 15 is Indian Independence Day, when the prime minister addresses the nation. First-phase trials had not even started when the letter was written.

                Amid the furore, the Indian Academy of Sciences publicly denounced the proposed vaccine launch date as “unreasonable and without precedent”, accusing ICMR of raising “unrealistic hope and expectations”. ICMR countered by emphasising the importance of an indigenous vaccine. It said the leaked letter — ordering trial sites to “fast track approvals” and choose subjects within five days — was merely intended to “cut red tape”.




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                • Literally nothing about this disease is fully understood.

                  From lung scarring to heart damage, COVID-19 may leave lingering marks

                  https://news.berkeley.edu/2020/07/08...ngering-marks/

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                  • Originally posted by user4 View Post

                    It looks like Georgia is quite like Massachusetts, deaths are overwhelmingly from the elderly. Not sure how you can miss the most glaring, stark and deadly serious facts of this pandemic. If there are issues not yet fully understood is it disingenuous to use them to hide the most deadly and obvious facts. Look at the charts from Georgia, the people that are dying are the aged. It cant be any clearer. All efforts must be taken to guard the elderly from this disease and that obviously includes all demographic subcategories of the elderly.
                    And a major reason that the death totals in NY and NJ are so much higher than the rest of the country is because of the stupid policy requirement in the early stages of the pandemic to send elderly COVID-19 patients being discharged from hospitals back to their nursing homes. Almost half the deaths in NJ have been in are from long-term care facilities.

                    Comment


                    • Meanwhile...

                      Israel had crushed coronavirus cases almost down to zero, but then it reopened its schools without taking proper precautions. Now it has an even worse outbreak, in per capita terms, than we do.

                      https://mobile.twitter.com/ObsoleteD...66088530853888

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by user4 View Post

                        It looks like Georgia is quite like Massachusetts, deaths are overwhelmingly from the elderly. Not sure how you can miss the most glaring, stark and deadly serious facts of this pandemic. If there are issues not yet fully understood is it disingenuous to use them to hide the most deadly and obvious facts. Look at the charts from Georgia, the people that are dying are the aged. It cant be any clearer. All efforts must be taken to guard the elderly from this disease and that obviously includes all demographic subcategories of the elderly.
                        Half of those that are hospitalized are under 60. The heart study found substantial evidence of heart problems even in those that were not hospitalized. This very likely means that there will be years of life lost by those young in the graphic above. In fact, added with evidence of liver and other problems (including lungs) of those not even hospitalized might mean that there are more years of life lost by those under 60. This could have an affect on life expectancy that goes on for decades, not months.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Halfmiler2 View Post

                          And a major reason that the death totals in NY and NJ are so much higher than the rest of the country is because of the stupid policy requirement in the early stages of the pandemic to send elderly COVID-19 patients being discharged from hospitals back to their nursing homes. Almost half the deaths in NJ have been in are from long-term care facilities.
                          That added to the fatalities, but I think that it was relatively modest in its total impact. Also, those people had to go somewhere because the hospitals were out of space and unknown infections (those without (much in the way of) symptoms) were in many of those care facilities - I do think that it was a bad idea, but I am not sure what the right answer was for that situation.

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                          • Something is happening with the Texas data on deaths on Worldometer https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/texas/. The total yesterday was listed at ~50 but now shows 450 which might be a reflection of them closing out the day sooner, because the national total cited some places is substantially higher than the 596 they listed for yesterday. Most of those deaths were listed as 'unassigned' (not assigned to any county). Today the Texas total so far is 654 with 534 listed as 'unassigned' . In the tally on their site, this would bring the days total ~1700 with some Texas and California counties (+ CO, NB) to go. In their compilation, that would bring the weekly average to 1100/day, a level last seen in mid-to-late May.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by 26mi235 View Post
                              Something is happening with the Texas data on deaths on Worldometer https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/texas/. The total yesterday was listed at ~50 but now shows 450 which might be a reflection of them closing out the day sooner, because the national total cited some places is substantially higher than the 596 they listed for yesterday. Most of those deaths were listed as 'unassigned' (not assigned to any county). Today the Texas total so far is 654 with 534 listed as 'unassigned' . In the tally on their site, this would bring the days total ~1700 with some Texas and California counties (+ CO, NB) to go. In their compilation, that would bring the weekly average to 1100/day, a level last seen in mid-to-late May.
                              It was explained yesterday... https://twitter.com/TexasDSHS/status...906562/photo/1

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                              • what is more likely to happen: 2021 Tokyo or MLB completing this "season"?

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