the no-nonsense, nothing-but-the-facts-m'am C19 thread

[bad hammy]

The question we will probably never get an answer to is: "Would they have died had they not had covid?" Many deaths in old people have a number of different potentially fatal conditions.

That's where the "excess deaths over norms" that 18.99 posted about a few posts back comes in. The primary citation from his post:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-10520857/The-recorded-ONE-MILLION-excess-Covid-deaths-COVID-19-pandemic-began-early-2020.html

[jeremyp]

The question we will probably never get an answer to is: "Would they have died had they not had covid?" Many deaths in old people have a number of different potentially fatal conditions. My mother had COPD and heart issues. Her heart gave out during a COPD emergency. Presumably the Death Certificate would list both.

[Trickstat]

In the UK, the figures given are for people whose deaths occurred within 28 days of a positive Covid test. It is careful not to say these are all deaths caused by Covid. I do wonder if deaths in the category of "tested positive 25 days before but had no or limited symptoms but was in a road accident" are excluded but they would be insignificant in percentage terms.

[NotDutra5]

True, there are most likely minor errors in the total counts, but I see no indication of, or cause to, artificially inflate the numbers of deaths. Medical professionals are a fairly responsible lot. The number that you can be more confident is incorrect is the number of total cases in the country. With the advent of home testing, and no requirement for those testing positive at home to self-report their status, it is certainly undercounting. The good news from that would seem to be that the Omicron variant may be even less lethal than it currently seems.

But if someone dies of a heart attack and tests positive for the virus, I am fairly confident that their death certificate will say Coronary Event or words to that effect.

I think it was mentioned that Bob Saget had Covid when he passed (due to some head trauma) recently. Not included in the Covid count.

[jeremyp]

100% of the deaths blamed on Covid aren't going to be accurate, but there is no evidence to show that the deliberate fudging and honest but erroneous recording is so widespread as to overcount by 20% or more.

And many deaths caused by Covid aren't going to be blamed on Covid. Pneumonia is a good example. Covid often leads to pneumonia, yet the death may be called pneumonia.

[KevinR]

True, there are most likely minor errors in the total counts, but I see no indication of, or cause to, artificially inflate the numbers of deaths. Medical professionals are a fairly responsible lot. The number that you can be more confident is incorrect is the number of total cases in the country. With the advent of home testing, and no requirement for those testing positive at home to self-report their status, it is certainly undercounting. The good news from that would seem to be that the Omicron variant may be even less lethal than it currently seems.

But if someone dies of a heart attack and tests positive for the virus, I am fairly confident that their death certificate will say Coronary Event or words to that effect.

[scottmitchell74]

18.99s - Good stuff.

I think it will take an Erin Brockovich type 10 year deep-dive after this is all over to tease it all out, and you'll need 100 Erin's to get it done.

[18.99s]

100% of the deaths blamed on Covid aren't going to be accurate, but there is no evidence to show that the deliberate fudging and honest but erroneous recording is so widespread as to overcount by 20% or more.

[18.99s]

I do not want to start a whole furious debate. I'm not being rhetorical. I'm simply really really wondering how many are dying "with" vs "of" and how you would even know for sure. This disease, and especially Omicron, is so catchy that so many people who happen to die of something will also be found to have recently had Omicron, especially if they've been in a hospital, home, institution for any length of time. To me those are fudgy, iffy stats. This makes no mention of certain motivations at health facilities to label something a "covid" death.

One way to discern that is to look at "excess deaths", i.e. deaths from all causes during the pandemic years relative to deaths in prior years, after accounting for the small annual increase in deaths due to aging and population growth.

The excess death numbers indicate the Covid deaths may have been undercounted rather than overcounted for 2020.

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infecti.../covid19/91910

No harder measure of the coronavirus pandemic's toll exists: death from any cause rose 23% nationwide in 2020.

That meant 522,368 excess deaths from March through the end of 2020 compared with a projection from the prior 5 years, Steven Woolf, MD, MPH, of Virginia Commonwealth University School of Medicine in Richmond, and colleagues reported in JAMA.

It's well above the unofficial tally of COVID-19 deaths, which reached about 339,000 deaths by the end of 2020.

This more recent article states 1M excess deaths in the US since the pandemic began. Some of that is the increase in opioid overdoses, but even after accounting for that the number is still close to the published Covid tally of 920M deaths.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/a...arly-2020.html

[18.99s]

Since January 1 2022 the U.S. has been averaging 2200 deaths a day or a total of 105K+ deaths.

A year ago over the same period we had 142K deaths or almost 3k deaths per day. A pandemic is a pandemic and not yet the endemic many people want to act like it is.

Almost triple the cases as the same time frame last year, but about 70% of the deaths. That's a case fatality rate about 1/4 of what it was early last year; a step towards endemic but not there yet.

[scottmitchell74]

Since January 1 2022 the U.S. has been averaging 2200 deaths a day or a total of 105K+ deaths.

A year ago over the same period we had 142K deaths or almost 3k deaths per day. A pandemic is a pandemic and not yet the endemic many people want to act like it is.

I do not want to start a whole furious debate. I'm not being rhetorical. I'm simply really really wondering how many are dying "with" vs "of" and how you would even know for sure. This disease, and especially Omicron, is so catchy that so many people who happen to die of something will also be found to have recently had Omicron, especially if they've been in a hospital, home, institution for any length of time. To me those are fudgy, iffy stats. This makes no mention of certain motivations at health facilities to label something a "covid" death.

The US is also so obese, on average, that that's been on my mind as well. Many of the "success" nations are nations that are way, way less obese than the US. I can't help but think that has to be a huge factor.

[jeremyp]

Since January 1 2022 the U.S. has been averaging 2200 deaths a day or a total of 105K+ deaths.

A year ago over the same period we had 142K deaths or almost 3k deaths per day. A pandemic is a pandemic and not yet the endemic many people want to act like it is.

[jeremyp]

That's probably because of the order in Florida making it practically illegal to ask about vaccination status. In my east coast state not named Florida, I've been asked about vaccination status 3 out of 3 times at the different hospital locations where I visited for an appointment in the past 3 months. None asked for proof, but I'm in their system as vaccinated because they're all part of the same hospital group and they administered my first two shots.

In the place I get my hair cut hey have signs up asking people not to inquire about vaccination status. I know the status of the woman who cuts my hair because she has had covid and told me she had a vaccine, but if I had not known I would not have seen her.

[18.99s]

I can't answer for hospitals but In my area of SW Florida I have only been asked 1x if I've been vaccinated. That's about 15-20 different Doctor's offices or medical facilities in a 1 year span. When I last visited a hospital in 6/21 I was not asked. I have never been asked for proof of vaccine.

I'm with both my 88 year old FIL and MIL when they go to the doctor and myself twice last year. In no case was being vaccinated brought up. Masks were required.

FL also.

That's probably because of the order in Florida making it practically illegal to ask about vaccination status. In my east coast state not named Florida, I've been asked about vaccination status 3 out of 3 times at the different hospital locations where I visited for an appointment in the past 3 months. None asked for proof, but I'm in their system as vaccinated because they're all part of the same hospital group and they administered my first two shots.

[Tuariki]

New Zealand’s Covid-19 numbers skyrocketing now. Yesterday 1,959 confirmed cases in the community. Only 73 in hospital though; 1 in ICU.

I guess our hospitalisation rates are helped with 96% double faxed and over 60% triple vaxxed.