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  • Meanwhile...

    'Hundreds dead' because of Covid-19 misinformation

    https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-5...mpression=true

    Comment


    • From NYT. It's not just old people dying.
      "Through July, about 3,800 people in the United States in the age group had died from coronavirus, according to figures published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That would make the coronavirus one of the leading causes of death for this age group,

      The overall death count in the U.S. is far higher than normal this year, suggesting that the virus’s toll is even greater than the official numbers show. More than 96,000 people age 25-44 have died so far this year, compared with an average of 78,000 at this point over the previous five years."
      https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/11/us/virus-young-deaths.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepa ge&section=US%20News

      So 16,000 more deaths than usual in people 25-44? A lot of this has to be virus. Could also be opiod deaths.

      Also from same article:
      "Records also show the people who died from the virus in Florida among the young were disproportionately Black. Among people age 25 to 44, African-Americans make up 18 percent of Florida’s population but have accounted for 44 percent of deaths. Black Floridians over 65 are dying at twice the rate of white residents, but among younger adults, the death rate is nearly three times as high.
      Mr. DeSantis said last month that the median age of new coronavirus cases had reached a low of 33, down from 50s and 60s in March and April. Records show that when tens of thousands of young people started testing positive shortly after the state reopened, the average age began to sneak back up, as young people infected the older people around them.
      The median age now is 42."

      Must be all that testing?
      Last edited by jeremyp; 08-12-2020, 07:55 PM.

      Comment


      • Here is the latest analysis of "excess deaths" vs. covid-19 death counts.

        Some of the most extreme undercounts.

        Mexico City.
        Peru.
        Ecuador.
        Moscow.
        Portigal.
        Jakarkta.

        (Interesting enough, RIo de Janeiro is not one of them.)

        Potential overcounts.

        Belgium.
        Sweden.
        Switzerland.
        Denmark.


        https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...ross-countries

        Comment


        • a nasal spray in the works?

          UCSF scientists create an anti-COVID-19 nasal spray

          The spray, or inhaler, would deliver a potent synthetic molecule to the lungs and airway


          https://www.sfgate.com/science/artic...y-15478854.php

          Comment


          • As promising as UCSF’s coronavirus therapy sounds, it faces significant hurdles:

            —Researchers do not yet have a commercial partner to manufacture AeroNabs, but they are actively searching for one.

            —The compound needs to be tested in animals, which could take months.

            —Delivery of the drug via an inhaler could result in incomplete coverage of the lungs, allowing the virus to gain a foothold in unprotected areas.



            Comment


            • Originally posted by Conor Dary View Post
              As promising as UCSF’s coronavirus therapy sounds, it faces significant hurdles:

              —Researchers do not yet have a commercial partner to manufacture AeroNabs, but they are actively searching for one.

              —The compound needs to be tested in animals, which could take months.

              —Delivery of the drug via an inhaler could result in incomplete coverage of the lungs, allowing the virus to gain a foothold in unprotected areas.


              welcome to how science works 101

              Comment


              • I think this was referenced weeks ago, but this UCSD paper is an excellent description of how the nanoparticles work. It strikes me as an interesting alternative to a vaccine.

                https://www.nature.com/articles/s41565-020-0737-y
                Sunlight is said to be the best of disinfectants

                Comment


                • Originally posted by TN1965 View Post
                  Here is the latest analysis of "excess deaths" vs. covid-19 death counts.

                  Some of the most extreme undercounts.

                  Mexico City.
                  Peru.
                  Ecuador.
                  Moscow.
                  Portigal.
                  Jakarkta.

                  (Interesting enough, RIo de Janeiro is not one of them.)

                  Potential overcounts.

                  Belgium.
                  Sweden.
                  Switzerland.
                  Denmark.


                  https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...ross-countries
                  Even with the extreme undercount, Ecuador (population of 17.6 million) has more reported cases and deaths than China does.

                  Comment


                  • Meanwhile....

                    U.S. officials report nearly 1,500 deaths, highest total since mid-May


                    The United States logged nearly 1,500 deaths due to the novel coronavirus on Wednesday, a harsh signal that the pandemic remained out of control here despite fairly stable average case numbers and death tolls in the past few days.

                    The 1,493 deaths reported by health officials across the country were the most fatalities tallied since mid-May, excluding a day in June when New Jersey announced more than 1,800 backlogged deaths. Nationwide, the seven-day average of newly reported deaths has remained above 1,000 for 17 consecutive days after rising steadily for most of July, according to The Washington Post’s tracking.

                    In the past four weeks, the seven-day average death total has more than doubled in Georgia, Louisiana, South Carolina and Texas and more than tripled in Washington. The same average has declined the most, relative to its previous number, in Arizona and Massachusetts.

                    Texas reported 324 new deaths on Wednesday, the state’s highest single-day fatality toll with the exception of July 27, when a change in methodology prompted officials there to announce 675 deaths.

                    In Georgia, the average number of new deaths set a record for the third straight day, with 67 fatalities. The state’s single-day death toll was 105, the second day in a row that it exceeded 100 and Georgia’s second-highest total of the pandemic.

                    Georgia’s average daily case count was also increasing slightly after reaching a high on July 24, falling for several days and then starting to rise again this week. State health officials announced 3,565 new infections on Wednesday.

                    https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...5JH7YTM5K2IHPE

                    Comment


                    • [QUOTE=jeremyp]From NYT. It's not just old people dying.
                      "Through July, about 3,800 people in the United States in the age group had died from coronavirus, according to figures published .... More than 96,000 people age 25-44 have died so far this year, compared with an average of 78,000 at this point over the previous five years."

                      So 16,000 more deaths than usual in people 25-44? A lot of this has to be virus. Could also be opiod deaths.
                      [/QUOTE ]

                      ​​​​​​faulty inference .. to determine the cause of death of the additional 16k people we need the 16k reported causes of death from the medical professionals/coroners that wrote the death certificates. This takes time , but we will know next year when the numbers are aggregated at the federal level.
                      Last edited by user4; 08-13-2020, 11:04 PM.

                      Comment


                      • Brazil August 12

                        Daily new cases 58,081
                        Total Cases 3,170,474

                        Daily new deaths 1,164
                        Total deaths 104,263
                        Sunlight is said to be the best of disinfectants

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Conor Dary View Post
                          Russia was reported to be behind disinformation campaigns to sow doubts in U.S. about our Covid vaccines; and today’s news that they “approved” a vaccine on the equivalent of phase 1 data may be another effort to stoke doubts or goad U.S. into forcing early action on our vaccines

                          https://mobile.twitter.com/ScottGott...42775328845824
                          Further reading today shows that the approval may be a bit more subtle than initially reported.

                          The approval seems to be for manufacturing in bulk, like other advanced vaccines, but mass innoculation is not scheduled until next year. This gives them enough time to conduct large scale Stage 3 trials before then.

                          Unfortunately, I haven't seen anything to confirm that Stage 3 will definitely be undertaken but I wouldn't be surprised if they do it without announcing it. That gives them more flexibility down the track.

                          Comment


                          • While we are talking about trials, here's an FDA report (.pdf download) demonstrating why they are important and why it's dangerous to go all in without them:

                            22 CASE STUDIES WHERE PHASE 2 AND PHASE 3 TRIALS HAD DIVERGENT RESULTS

                            Comment


                            • The True Coronavirus Toll in the U.S. Has Already Surpassed 200,000

                              https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...e=articleShare

                              Comment


                              • So UK removed 5,377 deaths from their total, pushing their deaths/million figure lower than that of Spain.

                                "On 17 July, the Secretary of State asked Public Health England (PHE) to urgently review the way daily death statistics are currently reported.

                                A review into the method used to calculate these figures considered a range of scientific evidence to identify the best time limit to apply between date of test and date of death.

                                The new daily measure provides a UK-wide count of deaths under a consistent methodology for England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales that has been endorsed by an external review.

                                The measure will be based on a 28-day limit between the date of a positive lab-confirmed test and date of death. Deaths that occur more than 28 days after a positive test will not be included in the headline count."


                                https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavi...for-the-public

                                Comment

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