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  • “The vaccines, although they’re wonderful, are not going to make the virus magically disappear,” said Tom Frieden, a former CDC director who is president of Resolve to Save Lives. “There’s no fairy-tale ending to this pandemic. We’re going to be dealing with it at least through 2021, and it’s likely to have implications for how we do everything from work to school, even with vaccines.”


    Frieden added: “Remember, we have vaccines against the flu, and we still have flu.”


    Comment


    • Originally posted by Halfmiler2 View Post

      The Sunday (10/18/20) early afternoon numbers:

      Globally: 39,690K cases & 1,106K deaths
      The USA: 8,211K cases & 223K deaths
      NY State: 484K cases & 32,959 deaths
      NYC only: 255K cases & 23,845 deaths
      NJ State: 220K cases & 16,211 deaths
      Bergen: 23,738 cases & 2,050 deaths

      Global numbers exclude China - 86K reported cases and 4.6K reported deaths.

      NJ had 1,282 new cases & 7 new confirmed deaths.
      NY had 1,390 new cases & 7 new confirmed deaths.
      NJ has 732 & NY has 913 hospitalizations.
      The Rt for NJ dipped to 1.15.
      The Monday (10/19/20) early afternoon numbers:

      Globally: 40,100K cases & 1,112K deaths
      The USA: 8,259K cases & 223K deaths
      NY State: 485K cases & 32,972 deaths
      NYC only: 255K cases & 23,850 deaths
      NJ State: 221K cases & 16,214 deaths
      Bergen: 23,845 cases & 2,051 deaths

      NY, NJ, NYC, & Bergen deaths include confirmed & probable.

      NJ had 1,192 new cases & 4 new deaths. New cases have average 1,000 for a week but deaths remain in single digits. NY had 998 new cases and 15 new deaths
      NJ has 758 & NY has 934 hospitalizations.
      The Rt for NJ fell to 1.14- down from a peak of 1.27 on 10/5. The spot positivity rate dropped to 3.36%.
      Last edited by Halfmiler2; 10-20-2020, 04:35 AM.

      Comment


      • What seems to be happening in the U.S. is that while cases and hospitalizations are going up again deaths are staying flat. Possibly the old folks are staying safer, and the treatment is getting better. Just protecting Nursing homes would save 50% of deaths. What should concern us most is the long term affects of covid on people. How many people are going to keep having medical issues that don't seem to go away?

        Comment


        • Maybe but cases are rising and deaths lag behind...

          https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-dr...about-to-rise/

          Comment



          • “There’s not going to be an intervention that really thwarts this, short of the ability to get a vaccine, which is probably an event that happens next year," @ScottGottliebMD
            says about expanding #COVID19 epidemic across the country.

            https://mobile.twitter.com/FaceTheNa...47963776045056

            Comment


            • This usually unfortunately means deaths will rise too in the next 2-4 wks. Our future is not written.




              https://mobile.twitter.com/tmprowell...10271205941248

              Comment


              • Originally posted by jeremyp View Post
                What seems to be happening in the U.S. is that while cases and hospitalizations are going up again deaths are staying flat. Possibly the old folks are staying safer, and the treatment is getting better. Just protecting Nursing homes would save 50% of deaths. What should concern us most is the long term affects of covid on people. How many people are going to keep having medical issues that don't seem to go away?
                A report of "long vivid" by UK's national institute for health research: https://evidence.nihr.ac.uk/themedre...-covid19/#Many

                Comment


                • In NJ with 670 school districts, since the fall semester began, there have been only 83 positive tests in 22 schools. Of course, some schools are going virtual only, but more are hybrid. All in-person are least common but there are some.
                  Last edited by Halfmiler2; 10-20-2020, 05:02 AM.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by jeremyp View Post
                    What seems to be happening in the U.S. is that while cases and hospitalizations are going up again deaths are staying flat. Possibly the old folks are staying safer, and the treatment is getting better. Just protecting Nursing homes would save 50% of deaths. What should concern us most is the long term affects of covid on people. How many people are going to keep having medical issues that don't seem to go away?
                    It should be noted that while hospitalizations have had modest increases, they are still way behind the spring when there was real concern they they would reach capacity. In NJ, the spring peak was over 8,000. The number dropped under 500 in the late summer, and now has risen over 700 for the past few weeks.

                    Comment


                    • meanwhile, in California.....

                      California wants independent OK before distributing any coronavirus vaccine

                      Published: Oct. 19, 2020 at 6:47 p.m. ET
                      By Associated Press
                      ‘We won’t take anyone’s word for it,’ Newsom says; state panel of experts will need to approve




                      https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ca...ne-01603147622

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Halfmiler2 View Post

                        The Monday (10/19/20) early afternoon numbers:

                        Globally: 40,100K cases & 1,112K deaths
                        The USA: 8,259K cases & 223K deaths
                        NY State: 485K cases & 32,972 deaths
                        NYC only: 255K cases & 23,850 deaths
                        NJ State: 221K cases & 16,214 deaths
                        Bergen: 23,845 cases & 2,051 deaths

                        NY, NJ, NYC, & Bergen deaths include confirmed & probable.

                        NJ had 1,192 new cases & 4 new deaths. New cases have average 1,000 for a week but deaths remain in single digits. NY had 998 new cases and 15 new deaths
                        NJ has 758 & NY has 934 hospitalizations.
                        The Rt for NJ fell to 1.14- down from a peak of 1.27 on 10/5. The spot positivity rate dropped to 3.36%.
                        The Tuesday (10/20/20) early afternoon numbers:

                        Globally: 40,418K cases & 1,114K deaths
                        The USA: 8,301K cases & 223K deaths
                        NY State: 486K cases & 32,990 deaths
                        NYC only: 255K cases & 23,854 deaths
                        NJ State: 222K cases & 16,227 deaths
                        Bergen: 23,945 cases & 2,051 deaths

                        Global numbers exclude China’s reported numbers (86K cases & 4.6K deaths) as unreliable.

                        NJ had 1,036 new cases, 13 new confirmed deaths
                        NY had 1,201 new cases 13 new confirmed deaths
                        NJ has 781 & NY has 942 hospitalizations.
                        The Rt for NJ dipped to 1.13.
                        Last edited by Halfmiler2; 10-20-2020, 09:48 PM.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Conor Dary View Post
                          This usually unfortunately means deaths will rise too in the next 2-4 wks. Our future is not written.




                          https://mobile.twitter.com/tmprowell...10271205941248
                          Today’s NY Times morning email update linking to articles behind the paywall, says: “ The third chart shows some encouraging news ... Even as cases have soared, and hospitalizations have risen, deaths have held steady.”

                          Comment


                          • NY, NJ, and CT make their weekly adjustment (announced each Tuesday) to their quarantine list and added Maryland and Arizona bringing the total to 38 states + Puerto Rico and Guam.

                            It was also noted that NJ, CT, and PA now also all flunk the quarantine criteria because of the recent increase in cases. However, the three states will not be added to the quarantine list.

                            NY still does not exceed the quarantine threshold.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Conor Dary View Post
                              Maybe but cases are rising and deaths lag behind...

                              https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-dr...about-to-rise/
                              Florida has had about the same deaths on average per week for 6 weeks now and their cases have gone up, as with Texas and California. The key, I think, is the rise in hospitalizations. Fewer deaths but more use of medical facilities.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Halfmiler2 View Post

                                It should be noted that while hospitalizations have had modest increases, they are still way behind the spring when there was real concern they they would reach capacity. In NJ, the spring peak was over 8,000. The number dropped under 500 in the late summer, and now has risen over 700 for the past few weeks.
                                That depends on where. Utah, Wisconsin, other western states are practically at max.

                                Comment

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