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  • From NPR:
    Two new peer-reviewed studies are showing a sharp drop in mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients. The drop is seen in all groups, including older patients and those with underlying conditions, suggesting that physicians are getting better at helping patients survive their illness.

    "We find that the death rate has gone down substantially," says Leora Horwitz, a doctor who studies population health at New York University's Grossman School of Medicine and an author on one of the studies, which looked at thousands of patients from March to August.

    The study, which was of a single health system, finds that mortality has dropped among hospitalized patients by nearly 18 points since the pandemic began. Patients in the study had a 25.6% chance of dying at the start of the pandemic; they now have a 7.6% chance.

    They adjusted for factors including age and other diseases, like diabetes, to rule out the possibility that the numbers had dropped only because younger, healthier people were getting diagnosed. They found that death rates dropped for all groups, even older patients by 18 percentage points on average.
    Last edited by jeremyp; 10-20-2020, 10:02 PM.

    Comment


    • On the issue of: Do Masks work
      https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan...-plane-flights


      "Since April, Emirates has had a very rigid masking policy," Freedman says. The airlines not only requires passengers and crew members to wear masks, but flight attendants also make sure everyone keeps on their masks, as much as possible, throughout an entire flight.

      Freedman looked at all Emirates flights, from Dubai to Hong Kong, between June 16 and July 5. What he found is quite telling. During those three weeks, Emirates had five flights with seven or more infected passengers on each flight, for a total of 58 COVID-positive passengers flying on 8-hour long trips. And yet, nobody else on the planes – none of the other 1,500 to 2,000 passengers — picked up the virus, Freedman and his colleague report in the Journal of Travel Medicine.

      Comment


      • COVID-19 and Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 18 Comparison Countries

        The US has experienced more deaths from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) than any other country and has one of the highest cumulative per capita death rates.1,2 An unanswered question is to what extent high US mortality was driven by the early surge of cases prior to improvements in prevention and patient management vs a poor longer-term response.3 We compared US COVID-19 deaths and excess all-cause mortality in 2020 (vs 2015-2019) to that of 18 countries with diverse COVID-19 responses.

        https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2771841

        Comment


        • China's Covid success compared to Europe shows lockdowns are the first step, not a solution

          As much of Europe stares down the barrel of renewed coronavirus lockdowns, and a potentially miserable -- and deadly -- winter to come, China is going from strength to strength.

          https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/20/asia/...hnk/index.html

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Halfmiler2 View Post

            The Tuesday (10/20/20) early afternoon numbers:

            Globally: 40,418K cases & 1,114K deaths
            The USA: 8,301K cases & 223K deaths
            NY State: 486K cases & 32,990 deaths
            NYC only: 255K cases & 23,854 deaths
            NJ State: 222K cases & 16,227 deaths
            Bergen: 23,945 cases & 2,051 deaths

            Global numbers exclude China’s reported numbers (86K cases & 4.6K deaths) as unreliable.

            NJ had 1,036 new cases, 13 new confirmed deaths
            NY had 1,201 new cases 13 new confirmed deaths
            NJ has 781 & NY has 942 hospitalizations.
            The Rt for NJ dipped to 1.13.
            The Wednesday (10/21/20) early afternoon numbers:

            Globally: 40,566K cases & 1,117K deaths
            The USA: 8,375K cases & 224K deaths
            NY State: 488K cases & 32,998 deaths
            NYC only: 256K cases & 23,859 deaths
            NJ State: 223K cases & 16,245 deaths
            Bergen: 24,066 cases & 2,055 deaths

            NY, NJ, NYC, and Bergen deaths include confirmed and probable.

            NJ had 1,062 new cases & 18 new confirmed deaths
            NY had 2,026 new cases & 7 new confirmed deaths
            NJ had 844 & NY has 950 hospitalizations.
            The Rt for NJ edged up to 1.15.

            Comment


            • Will a vaccine stop Covid?

              Even if it's effective, the logistics of delivering it are monumental

              https://unherd.com/2020/10/will-a-vaccine-cure-covid/

              Comment


              • In the FT...

                Schools play limited role in spread, European studies indicate



                ANDREW JACK AND BETHAN STATON LONDON GUY CHAZAN — BERLIN

                A series of studies has cast doubt on the role of schools in spreading the corona-virus as governments across Europe consider fresh restrictions to slow a second wave of infections.

                Studies in Germany and Norway, as well as two reviews focusing on education globally, suggest a renewal of widespread school closures would have a limited effect on curbing the virus that causes Covid-19.

                The findings are likely to bolster policymakers concerned that school closures would risk more students falling behind and limit the ability of parents to return to work.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Conor Dary View Post
                  Will a vaccine stop Covid?

                  Even if it's effective, the logistics of delivering it are monumental

                  https://unherd.com/2020/10/will-a-vaccine-cure-covid/
                  terrific bit of analysis

                  Comment


                  • The Onion's take on one aspect of this:

                    Headline - Experts Predict Covid-19 Vaccine Could Be Ready As Soon As Team Of Sled Dogs Traverse Yukon With It


                    https://www.theonion.com/experts-pre...oon-1845439846 (URL provided for info only--the article isn't as funny as the headline).


                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Halfmiler2 View Post

                      The Wednesday (10/21/20) early afternoon numbers:

                      Globally: 40,566K cases & 1,117K deaths
                      The USA: 8,375K cases & 224K deaths
                      NY State: 488K cases & 32,998 deaths
                      NYC only: 256K cases & 23,859 deaths
                      NJ State: 223K cases & 16,245 deaths
                      Bergen: 24,066 cases & 2,055 deaths

                      NY, NJ, NYC, and Bergen deaths include confirmed and probable.

                      NJ had 1,062 new cases & 18 new confirmed deaths
                      NY had 2,026 new cases & 7 new confirmed deaths
                      NJ had 844 & NY has 950 hospitalizations.
                      The Rt for NJ edged up to 1.15.
                      The Thursday (10/22/20) early afternoon numbers:

                      Globally: 41,311K cases & 1,129K deaths
                      The USA: 8,432K cases & 225K deaths
                      NY State: 490K cases & 33,005 deaths
                      NYC only: 257K cases & 23,949 deaths
                      NJ State: 224K cases & 16,263 deaths
                      Bergen: 24,172 cases & 2,056 deaths

                      Global numbers exclude China (86K cases, 4.6K deaths).

                      NJ had 1,182 new cases, 18 new confirmed deaths
                      NY had 1,628 new cases, 15 new confirmed deaths
                      NJ has 852 & NY has 986 hospitalizations.
                      The Rt for NJ edged up to 1.17 and spot positivity rate up to 5.28%.
                      Last edited by Halfmiler2; 10-22-2020, 07:41 PM.

                      Comment


                      • Alabama’s GOP lieutenant governor called mask rules an ‘overstep.’ Now he has tested positive for the coronavirus.

                        https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...ks-ltgovernor/

                        Comment


                        • NJ Governor Murphy is in the 2nd Day of a 14-day self-quarantine after two senior staff members tested positive for COVID-19.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Halfmiler2 View Post

                            The Thursday (10/22/20) early afternoon numbers:

                            Globally: 41,311K cases & 1,129K deaths
                            The USA: 8,432K cases & 225K deaths
                            NY State: 490K cases & 33,005 deaths
                            NYC only: 257K cases & 23,949 deaths
                            NJ State: 224K cases & 16,263 deaths
                            Bergen: 24,172 cases & 2,056 deaths

                            Global numbers exclude China (86K cases, 4.6K deaths).

                            NJ had 1,182 new cases, 18 new confirmed deaths
                            NY had 1,628 new cases, 15 new confirmed deaths
                            NJ has 852 & NY has 986 hospitalizations.
                            The Rt for NJ edged up to 1.17 and spot positivity rate up to 5.28%.
                            The Friday (10/23/20) early afternoon numbers;

                            Globally: 41,781K cases & 1,135K deaths
                            The USA: 8,498K cases & 226K deaths
                            NY State: 492K cases & 33,022 deaths
                            NYC only: 257K cases & 23,952 deaths
                            NJ State: 225K cases & 16,273 deaths
                            Bergen: 24,259 cases & 2,057 deaths

                            NY, NJ, NYC, and Bergen County deaths include confirmed & probable.

                            NJ had 1,139 new cases, 11 new confirmed deaths
                            NY had 1,637 new cases, 11 new confirmed deaths
                            NJ has 874 & NY has 1,023 hospitalizations.
                            The Rt for NJ held at 1.17.
                            Last edited by Halfmiler2; 10-24-2020, 01:00 AM.

                            Comment



                            • There are only 10 states where cases are not rising and have stayed low. http://nyti.ms/34qqinI


                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Conor Dary View Post
                                Alabama’s GOP lieutenant governor called mask rules an ‘overstep.’ Now he has tested positive for the coronavirus.

                                https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...ks-ltgovernor/
                                And the Covid viri do another high five.

                                Comment

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