the no-nonsense, nothing-but-the-facts-m'am C19 thread

[Conor Dary]

With Hospitals Nearly Overwhelmed, Britain Faces Harder Days

As a more contagious variant of the coronavirus tears through the country, and as people resist new restrictions, hospitals are struggling to cope with a surge in patients.


https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/12/w...ronavirus.html

[user4]

That's very sobering. If that's true, the US has less than 5% of the world's population, but 20% of the world's deaths. I suspect some or all of that may be due to serious under-reporting elsewhere.

factors likely at play:
1) We have one of the most advanced health information systems in the world. Only Japan, the Anglosphere and a few western European nations compare.
2) We have one of the best health care systems for the aged. Because of this we had far more people over the age of 70 when this plague hit. We simply have a vast population of people that were susceptible to death from this virus. A typical 3rd world nation will have an infinitesimal proportion of their population at risk of death from this virus. So there is both good and bad in such numbers. To illustrate, consider a comparison of a typical youth heavy population of Sudan with a big belly distribution like the US

https://www.populationpyramid.net/un...-america/2020/

https://www.populationpyramid.net/sudan/2020/

Needless to say Sudan's media outlets are not in hysterical fear 24/7 about their covid numbers.

3) We attribute the death of the chronically ill when they caught the virus to only the virus.

[Tuariki]

factors likely at play:
1) We have one of the most advanced health information systems in the world. Only Japan, the Anglosphere and a few western European nations compare.
2) We have one of the best health care systems for the aged. Because of this we had far more people over the age of 70 when this plague hit. We simply have a vast population of people that were susceptible to death from this virus. A typical 3rd world nation will have an infinitesimal proportion of their population at risk of death from this virus. So there is both good and bad in such numbers. To illustrate, consider a comparison of a typical youth heavy population of Sudan with a big belly distribution like the US

https://www.populationpyramid.net/un...-america/2020/

https://www.populationpyramid.net/sudan/2020/

Needless to say Sudan's media outlets are not in hysterical fear 24/7 about their covid numbers.

3) We attribute the death of the chronically ill when they caught the virus to only the virus.

It's alsi easy to have low numbers when you don't test. For example, the following figures are tests per million of population.

USA - 830,000
Kenya - 20,000
South Sudan - 7000
Nigeria - 5,000

There is no blame on these low testing countries. When you don't have resources to test then you can't test.

[gh]

among U.S.. changes will be using available supplies for first shots for more people, rather than smaller group getting both

Facing a slower-than-hoped coronavirus vaccine rollout, the Trump administration abruptly shifted gears Tuesday to speed the delivery of shots to more people. The move came as cases and deaths surged to alarming new highs.

Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar announced a series of major changes to increase supply of vaccines, extend eligibility to more seniors and provide more locations for people to get shots. Administration officials describing the new policies conveyed a notable sense of urgency.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireSt...-dose-75196062

[Conor Dary]

In The Spectator...

• The UK passed 100,000 coronavirus deaths, with a new high of 1,564 recorded in the last 24 hours. A further 47,525 people had positive tests.
• Boris Johnson warned that there was a 'substantial' risk of hospitals running out of beds to treat patients in the next few weeks...

[bad hammy]

For example, the following figures are tests per million of population.

USA - 830,000

Unless I've missed something, I doubt very much that 83% of US folks have been tested. Multiple tests per customer I guess.

[gh]

meanwhile in Britain.....

UK's Boris Johnson pledges vaccine program to operate 24-7


https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...w/80255361.cms

[Conor Dary]

Unless I've missed something, I doubt very much that 83% of US folks have been tested. Multiple tests per customer I guess.

A lot of people have been tested more than once...but definitely not 83% has been tested...

[Conor Dary]

Meanwhile...

Coronavirus updates: U.S. sets single-day death record, and new variants emerge

https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...covid-updates/

[Halfmiler2]

The Tuesday (1/12/21) early afternoon numbers:

Globally: 90,962K cases & 1,944K deaths
The USA: 22,732K cases & 379K deaths
NY State: 1,155K cases & 39,404 deaths
NYC only: 493K cases & 25,635 deaths
NJ State: 537K cases & 20,039 deaths
Bergen: 52,110 cases & 2,383 deaths

NY, NJ, NYC, and Bergen deaths include confirmed and probable deaths.

NJ: 4,219 new cases, 108 new confirmed deaths.
NY:15,214 new cases,166 new confirmed deaths
NJ has 3,703 & NY has 8,826 hospitalizations.
The Rt for NJ edged down to 1.08.
NJ vaccines hit 234K.

The Wednesday (1/13/21) early afternoon numbers:

Globally: 91,751K cases & 1,964K deaths
The USA: 23,010K cases & 383K deaths
NY State: 1,170K cases & 39,588 deaths
NYC only: 499K cases & 25,698 deaths
NJ State: 544K cases & 20,161 deaths
Bergen: 52,734 cases & 2,397 deaths

Global numbers exclude China (87.2K cases, 4.6K deaths) which has not reported any deaths in 9 months

NJ: 6,922 new cases (record), 95 new confirmed deaths
NY:14,577 new cases, 108 new confirmed deaths.
NJ has 3,726 & NY has 8,929 hospitalizations.
The Rt for NJ edged up to 1.10.
The NJ spot positivity test rate rose to 13.53%

NJ has given out 264K vaccines. Effective Thursday, NJ drops the age eligibility for vaccines from 75 to 65, and even 16 to 64 for folks with high-risk medical conditions.

[J Rorick]

Unless I've missed something, I doubt very much that 83% of US folks have been tested. Multiple tests per customer I guess.

According to Worldometer the United States has conducted 277,190,625 tests, or 834,812 per million population. Hell, the NFL and NCAAF probably did 100 million .

[bad hammy]

According to Worldometer the United States has conducted 277,190,625 tests, or 834,812 per million population. Hell, the NFL and NCAAF probably did 100 million .

It would be interesting to see the number of folks who have been tested, along with total number of tests. Some backup QB from whatsammata u getting tested fifty times doesn't represent comprehensive testing . . .

[Conor Dary]

In the FT...

Experts point to dangers of rapid Covid tests

Lateral flow devices struggle to detect lower levels of infection, leading to false negative results

Debbie Parkes and her son Luke have been cautious to a fault throughout the pandemic. Before Christmas, Luke received negative results from two rapid “lateral flow” tests, leaving him comfortable about visiting his family home for the holidays.

But a week later, Ms Parkes and her 90-year-old mother were hospitalised after catching Covid-19 from Luke. “We followed all the rules, had done everything right and we ended up with the virus,” Ms Parkes said from hospital.

The Parkes’ story is mirrored across England after lateral flow tests — which studies say pick up anywhere between 30 per cent and 80 per cent of Covid-19 infections — gave false negatives.

[Conor Dary]

meanwhile in Britain.....

UK's Boris Johnson pledges vaccine program to operate 24-7


https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...w/80255361.cms

In the FT..

Earlier, the prime minister confirmed plans for a pilot scheme under which a vaccination centre would operate 24 hours a day, seven days a week, in an effort to speed up inoculation. But he told the House of Commons: “At the moment, the limit is on supply.”

Mr Hancock told the BBC that supplies were the major “rate-limiting” factor affecting the programme’s rollout. Mr Zahawi said: “In any manufacturing process . . . it begins lumpy, it begins to stabilise, then smoothes out and that is the process that we are going through at the moment.”

[Conor Dary]

In the FT...

Pharma lobby fears public confidence at risk from delaying jabs

DONATO PAOLO MANCINI — ROME

The pharmaceuticals industry has warned straying from tried-and-tested dosing intervals for Covid-19 vaccines risks undermining public confidence in the shot, even as an AstraZeneca executive said he supported the strategy.

The main drug lobby groups in the US and Europe yesterday said they supported adhering to the dosing that had been assessed in clinical trials.

In a statement, the groups warned that “emerging discussions regarding dosing strategies” might not be supported by drug labels or published data, and that any changes in dosing and inoculation schedules “should follow the science and be based on a transparent deliberation of the available data”.