the no-nonsense, nothing-but-the-facts-m'am C19 thread

[Adam$]

US ranks poorly in Covid performance (1-98) by the Lowy Institute with whom I'm admittedly unfamiliar. https://interactives.lowyinstitute.o...ance/#rankings

[jeremyp]

From Wa Post.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/01/28/wuhan-americans-evacuation/

An investigation reveals...
"As the first American evacuees from Wuhan, China, touched down at a California military base a year ago, fleeing the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, they were met by U.S. health officials with no virus prevention plan or infection-control training — and who had not even been told to wear masks, according to a federal investigation.

Later, those officials were told to remove protective gear when meeting with the evacuees to avoid “bad optics,” and days after those initial encounters, departed California aboard commercial airline flights to other destinations."

[bambam1729]

7-day rolling average decreased again yesterday - 15th consecutive day in US - hopefully that can continue

# of cases down again - 17 straight days. Let's hope we can keep that going. Same is true for the world at large for total # of cases by 7-day rolling average.

[bambam1729]

Israel has now vaccinated over 1/2 its population - see https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations.

Top nations in per capita vaccinations still 1) Israel, 2) UAE, 3) UK, 4) USA. Europe still lagging.

[Halfmiler2]

To be more specific about the NY under-reporting, the number of COVID-19 deaths at nursing homes may have been 13K instead of 8.7K.

[Halfmiler2]

The Thursday (1/28/21) early afternoon numbers:

Globally: 101,053K cases & 2,177K deaths
The USA: 25,831K cases & 433K deaths
NY State: 1,374K cases & 42,434 deaths
NYC only: 585K cases & 26,763 deaths
NJ State: 610K cases & 21,301 deaths
Bergen: 59,029 cases & 2,461 deaths

NY, NJ, NYC, & Bergen deaths include confirmed and probable, but cases exclude results from quick tests.

NJ: 3,862 new cases, 82 new confirmed deaths
NY:13,398 new cases,163 new conf. deaths
NJ has 3,131 & NY has 8,520 hospitalizations.
The Rt for NJ held steady at 0.91.
NJ has given out 681K vaccines (74K in Bergen).

The big news in NY is that the AG issued a report that says the reported COVID-19 deaths in nursing homes (over 8K) may have been under-reported by as much as 50%.

The Friday (1/29/21) early afternoon numbers:

Globally: 101,547K cases & 2,190K deaths
The USA: 26,027K cases & 438K deaths
NY State: 1,387K cases & 42,639 deaths
NYC only: 591K cases & 26,856 deaths
NJ State: 615K cases & 21,383 deaths
Bergen: 59,421 cases & 2,465 deaths

Global amounts exclude China (89.3K cases, 4.6K deaths) which has reported only 2 deaths in 9 months

NJ: 5,023 new cases, 83 new confirmed deaths
NY:12,579 new cases,151 new conf. deaths
NJ has 3,116 hospitalizations.
The Rt for NJ held at 0.91.
The NJ positivity rate fell to 8.37%.
NJ has given out 724K vaccines (81K in Bergen).

[bambam1729]

If anyone wants to read a "very" long article about mathematical modeling of the pandemic and how difficult it is, because of so many human factors that are difficult to model, you can read it here at quantamagazine - https://www.quantamagazine.org/the-h...emic-20210128/

[lonewolf]

If anyone wants to read a "very" long article about mathematical modeling of the pandemic and how difficult it is, because of so many human factors that are difficult to model, you can read it here at quantamagazine - https://www.quantamagazine.org/the-h...emic-20210128/

That is a very long article. I skimmed it all, even after reading the conclusion in about the 7th paragraph, "There is no best solution."

[Halfmiler2]

The Friday (1/29/21) early afternoon numbers:

Globally: 101,547K cases & 2,190K deaths
The USA: 26,027K cases & 438K deaths
NY State: 1,387K cases & 42,639 deaths
NYC only: 591K cases & 26,856 deaths
NJ State: 615K cases & 21,383 deaths
Bergen: 59,421 cases & 2,465 deaths

Global amounts exclude China (89.3K cases, 4.6K deaths) which has reported only 2 deaths in 9 months

NJ: 5,023 new cases, 83 new confirmed deaths
NY:12,579 new cases,151 new conf. deaths
NJ has 3,116 hospitalizations.
The Rt for NJ held at 0.91.
The NJ positivity rate fell to 8.37%.
NJ has given out 724K vaccines (81K in Bergen).

The Saturday (1/30/21) early afternoon numbers:

Globally: 102,115K cases & 2,205K deaths
The USA: 26,208K cases & 442K deaths
NY State: 1,400K cases & 42,825 deaths
NYC only: 597K cases & 26,953 deaths
NJ State: 620K cases & 21,455 deaths
Bergen: 59,878 cases & 2,469 deaths

NY, NJ, NYC, & Bergen County deaths include confirmed & probable, but cases exclude quick tests

NJ: 4,626 new cases, 74 new confirmed deaths
NY:12,804 new cases, 143 new conf. deaths
NJ has 3,075 hospitalizations.
The Rt for NJ stayed at 0.91 for the 4th straight day
The NJ spot positivity test rate was 8.92%.
NJ has given 761K vaccine shots (84K in Bergen).

[TN1965]

Taiwan reports first COVID-19 death in eight months, from local cluster

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN29Z09W

[jeremyp]

# of cases down again - 17 straight days. Let's hope we can keep that going. Same is true for the world at large for total # of cases by 7-day rolling average.

Yet the U.S. continues to average 3200 deaths per day for the last 4 weeks. And the new variants are spreading. Florida has the U.K. variant and deaths over 200 a day starting to look like the new norm.

[18.99s]

Yet the U.S. continues to average 3200 deaths per day for the last 4 weeks.

As mentioned earlier, deaths lag cases by a few weeks, so any upward or downward trend in cases can be expected to have a similar time lag relative to the death numbers.

[Conor Dary]

Meanwhile....this won't help...

Dodger Stadium’s COVID-19 vaccination site shut down after protesters gather at entrance

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-01-30/dodger-stadiums-covid-19-vaccination-site-shutdown-after-dozens-of-protesters-gather-at-entrance?_amp=true&__twitter_impression=true

[Halfmiler2]

As mentioned earlier, deaths lag cases by a few weeks, so any upward or downward trend in cases can be expected to have a similar time lag relative to the death numbers.

In NJ, the hospitalizations which had been near 4,000, are now just over 3,000 - a good sign as is the Rt staying well under 1.0. In the spring, hospitalizations were over 8,000.

[Halfmiler2]

The Saturday (1/30/21) early afternoon numbers:

Globally: 102,115K cases & 2,205K deaths
The USA: 26,208K cases & 442K deaths
NY State: 1,400K cases & 42,825 deaths
NYC only: 597K cases & 26,953 deaths
NJ State: 620K cases & 21,455 deaths
Bergen: 59,878 cases & 2,469 deaths

NY, NJ, NYC, & Bergen County deaths include confirmed & probable, but cases exclude quick tests

NJ: 4,626 new cases, 74 new confirmed deaths
NY:12,804 new cases, 143 new conf. deaths
NJ has 3,075 hospitalizations.
The Rt for NJ stayed at 0.91 for the 4th straight day
The NJ spot positivity test rate was 8.92%.
NJ has given 761K vaccine shots (84K in Bergen).

The Sunday (1/31/21) early afternoon numbers:

Globally: 102,668K cases & 2,219K deaths
The USA: 26,308K cases & 444K deaths
NY State: 1,411K cases & 42,996 deaths
NYC only: 603K cases & 27,042 deaths
NJ State: 624K cases & 21,484 deaths
Bergen: 60,250 cases & 2,474 deaths

Global amounts exclude China (89.3K cases, 4.6K deaths) that has reported only 2 deaths in 9 months

NJ: 3,823 new cases, 29 new confirmed deaths
NY:10,793 new cases,142 new conf. deaths
NJ hospitalizations fell under 3K to 2,901.
NY hospitalizations fell under 8K to 7,976.
The Rt for NJ rose to 0.94.
The NJ spot positivity test rate was 8.69%.
NJ has given out 786K vaccines (87K in Bergen).