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  • 18.99s
    replied
    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/05/h...ovid-pill.html

    Pfizer announced on Friday that its pill to treat Covid-19 had been found in a key clinical trial to be highly effective at preventing severe illness among at-risk people who received the drug soon after they exhibited symptoms.

    ...

    Pfizer’s pill, which will be sold under the brand name Paxlovid, cut the risk of hospitalization or death by 89 percent when given within three days after the start of symptoms.

    Pfizer said an independent board of experts monitoring its clinical trial recommended that the study be stopped early because the drug’s benefit to patients had proved so convincing.

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  • KevinR
    replied
    Best of luck, PVP. I share your frustration and sense of urgency.

    Leave a comment:


  • polevaultpower
    replied
    The 5-11 vaccine rollout in my state has been a mess. The state's scheduling system expanded to 5-11, but does not distinguish between providers with the 12+ vaccine and providers with the 5-11 vaccine. The first clinic I signed up my kids for ended up not having it and my appointment was canceled. Today I was able to get them an appointment about 90 minutes south of where my parents live.

    We are leaving the state next week, so I am desperate to get them jabbed ASAP, otherwise I would just wait for the clinic on my island that is in two weeks.

    Leave a comment:


  • Halfmiler2
    replied
    Originally posted by Conor Dary View Post
    Colorado hospitals are nearly full as the state battles a growing caseload.

    At UCHealth, one of the state’s biggest health systems, 76 percent of patients hospitalized with Covid-19 are unvaccinated, and over 86 percent of Covid-19 patients who are in need of a ventilator and are in intensive care are unvaccinated.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/03/u...hospitals.html
    NJ currently has fewer than 10% of the COVID hospitalizations that it had at the 2020 peak: 670 vs 8K.

    Leave a comment:


  • El Toro
    replied
    Originally posted by Conor Dary View Post
    With all of the anti Vax nonsense...not a surprise...

    ....Even small differences in this percentage can have an outsize impact on hospitalization outcomes. For example, two communities with 90 versus 99 percent of the elderly vaccinated actually have a tenfold difference in the number of people at risk for hospitalization. “You don’t need a lot of infections in the unvaccinated over 65 to give you a problem,” Hanage says.
    The Australian Capital Territory, the home of Canberra (app 450k residents) has the highest rate of vaccinations in Australia and is likely to hit effectively universal vaccination for eligible recipients, currently 12+.

    Because of population movements during COVID and the time since the last census the population estimates used for calculations is less accurate.

    This is compounded by the significant supply of health services provided to nearby communities outside the ACT, including vaccination centres and aged/palliative care. This means that raw numbers can exceed 100% vaccinated so anything over 95% should be read as 95%+ to reflect the uncertainty.

    AgeRange %1st %2nd
    0+ 83.89 78.58
    12+ 99.49 93.2
    16+ 99.54 93.71
    50+ 103.93 99.16
    70+ 108.09 102.9

    Because Australia as a whole maintained low COVID numbers, the vaccination program commenced later than in countries with major case numbers. However, we have caught up quickly as can be seen in the following chart:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FDPNQ3LV...pg&name=medium





    Leave a comment:


  • El Toro
    replied
    Originally posted by TN1965 View Post

    From the Reuters article.

    Puthucheary said the country was trying to live with COVID-19 as endemic without excess mortality. "Though we will have deaths as a result of COVID-19, we will not see more overall deaths than we would in a normal non-COVID year."

    A longer version of that story.

    https://www.straitstimes.com/singapo...osters-to-stem
    I reread the article at your link and I think that statement needs to be considered in context of the previou sentence, "Dr Janil said Singapore is trying hard to avoid "excess mortality" due to an inability to provide adequate medical care."

    That makes it more like a hope based on continued heavy management rather than "living with COVID" which I see as treating it like the flu - vaccinate all those that want it and accept whatever deaths happen. It's not really an assessment of likely deaths with the natural outcome of COVID + vaccines.

    The proposed interventions will restrict deaths from all respiratory diseases, exactly as we have seen in all countries with effective responses to COVID. Flu deaths are way down in Australia due to COVID restrictions, so much so that our age adjusted excess deaths are LOWER than normal.

    Is that living with COVID? I suppose it's one way, but it's vastly different to how most people interpret the phrase.

    Leave a comment:


  • Conor Dary
    replied
    Colorado hospitals are nearly full as the state battles a growing caseload.

    At UCHealth, one of the state’s biggest health systems, 76 percent of patients hospitalized with Covid-19 are unvaccinated, and over 86 percent of Covid-19 patients who are in need of a ventilator and are in intensive care are unvaccinated.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/03/u...hospitals.html

    Leave a comment:


  • TN1965
    replied
    Originally posted by El Toro View Post
    Interestingly, Singapore has publicly floated their estimate of future and ongoing COVID deaths.

    They are expecting it to be about the same as annual pneumonia deaths. Will this be additive to the 4000 deaths for all respiratory disease (inc. pneumonia) or just replace deaths that would otherwise happen? I don't think anybody knows at this stage.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...er-2021-11-01/
    From the Reuters article.

    Puthucheary said the country was trying to live with COVID-19 as endemic without excess mortality. "Though we will have deaths as a result of COVID-19, we will not see more overall deaths than we would in a normal non-COVID year."

    A longer version of that story.

    https://www.straitstimes.com/singapo...osters-to-stem

    Leave a comment:


  • Conor Dary
    replied
    One country that has excelled at vaccinating its elderly population is Denmark. Ninety-five percent of those over 50 have taken a COVID-19 vaccine, on top of a 90 percent overall vaccination rate in those eligible. (Children under 12 are still not eligible.) On September 10, Denmark lifted all restrictions. No face masks. No restrictions on bars or nightclubs. Life feels completely back to normal, says Lone Simonsen, an epidemiologist at Roskilde University, who was among the scientists advising the Danish government. In deciding when the country would be ready to reopen, she told me, “I was looking at, simply, vaccination coverage in people over 50.” COVID-19 cases in Denmark have since risenunder CDC mask guidelines, the country would even qualify as an area of “high” transmission where vaccinated people should still mask indoors. But hospitalizations are at a fraction of their January peak, relatively few people are in intensive care, and deaths in particular have remained low.

    Leave a comment:


  • Conor Dary
    replied
    With all of the anti Vax nonsense...not a surprise...

    The U.S. still has too many unvaccinated elderly people—or rather, parts of the U.S. do. States such as Vermont and Hawaii have done well, given almost 100 percent of people over 65 immunized at least one dose. But in Idaho, Arkansas, and Mississippi, the percentage is languishing in the 80s. Even small differences in this percentage can have an outsize impact on hospitalization outcomes. For example, two communities with 90 versus 99 percent of the elderly vaccinated actually have a tenfold difference in the number of people at risk for hospitalization. “You don’t need a lot of infections in the unvaccinated over 65 to give you a problem,” Hanage says. During the summer wave in the U.S., the community vaccination rate in people over 65 correlated with hospitalization trends. The trend, he says, is “extremely clear.”

    Leave a comment:


  • El Toro
    replied
    In contrast to Singapore, an article in the Atlantic about the USA's position on planning for endemicity:

    https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...al-now/620572/

    Leave a comment:


  • El Toro
    replied
    Interestingly, Singapore has publicly floated their estimate of future and ongoing COVID deaths.

    They are expecting it to be about the same as annual pneumonia deaths. Will this be additive to the 4000 deaths for all respiratory disease (inc. pneumonia) or just replace deaths that would otherwise happen? I don't think anybody knows at this stage.

    Bonus points for the rather more direct Singapore version of "first world problems", from the Prime Minister's wife:

    We are just spoilt kids if we keep on harping on our disappointment about dining and freedoms...let's do our best to help, instead of wasting our energies on tantrums and bitching.
    https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...er-2021-11-01/

    Despite vaccination hesitancy in some older age groups, Singapore's excess death percentage is negative according to the age-adjusted data of Dr Michael Levitt at Stanford. Levitt's data collated on Github https://heatherrenkel.github.io/exce..._location.html

    Leave a comment:


  • TN1965
    replied
    Novavax COVID-19 vaccine gets first authorization; expects more within weeks, CEO says (yahoo.com)

    Novavax Inc expects regulators in India, the Philippines and elsewhere to make a decision on its COVID-19 vaccine within "weeks," its chief executive told Reuters, after the shot on Monday received its first emergency use authorization (EUA) from Indonesia.

    Leave a comment:


  • 18.99s
    replied
    Based on stats from worldometers.info:

    US deaths, April 1, 2020 to Oct 31, 2020: 234.7K
    US deaths, April 1, 2021 to Oct 31, 2021: 194.7K

    That's only a 17% decrease from last year. If that 17% trend continues, it will take 7 more years to get below 60K (the upper range of a bad flu season) for the same 7-month period.
    Last edited by 18.99s; 11-01-2021, 08:01 PM.

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  • Halfmiler2
    replied
    I got my Moderna booster shot this morning. No side effect so far - I did not get any from the original shots.

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