the no-nonsense, nothing-but-the-facts-m'am C19 thread

[18.99s]

The first reported Omicron death:

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britain-says-omicron-spreading-phenomenal-rate-2021-12-13/

LONDON, Dec 13 (Reuters) - At least one person has died in the United Kingdom after contracting the Omicron coronavirus variant, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Monday, the first publicly confirmed death globally from the swiftly spreading strain.

Since the first Omicron cases were detected on Nov. 27 in the United Kingdom, Johnson has imposed tougher restrictions and on Sunday cautioned that the variant could overcome the immune defences of those inoculated with two shots of vaccines.

Britain gave no details on the death or whether the patient had been been vaccinated or had underlying health issues. Deaths from Omicron may have occurred in other countries but none has been publicly confirmed yet outside Britain.

[Halfmiler2]

Weekly Update:
The Monday (11/22/21) afternoon numbers:

Cumulative Numbers:
Globally: 257.070 million cases & 5,142K deaths
The USA: 47.702 million cases & 771K deaths
NY State: 2.654 million cases & 46,250 deaths
NJ State: 1.071 million cases. & 25,442 deaths
Bergen Co: 105,880 cases & 2,695 deaths

Global numbers exclude China which has reported no deaths in over a year. NY, NJ, & Bergen County numbers include only confirmed and not probables.

NJ & NY Detail:
The RT in NJ rose to 1.23.
The NJ recent positivity rate is 4.51%.
The NY recent positivity rate is 3.6%.
NJ has 816 & NY has 2,140 hospitalizations.
NJ has 28,274 & NY has 58,789 deaths including probables.
NJ has over 6.2 million full vaccinations, 7.9 million first shots, and over 1 million booster for 9.2 million people.

7-day Daily Averages:
Globally: 825K cases & 10.6K deaths
The USA: 95K cases & 1.3K deaths
NY State: 5,881 cases & 32 deaths
NJ State: 1,669 cases & 12 deaths
Bergen Co: 154 cases & 0 deaths

After the hiatus for the USATF meetings, we are back and things have changed quite a bit in three weeks…

Weekly Update:
The Monday (12/13/21) Afternoon Numbers:

Cumulative Totals:
Globally: 269.076 million cases & 5,291K deaths
The USA: 49.882 million cases & 797K deaths
NY State: 2.835 million cases & 47.2K deaths
NJ State: 1.131 million cases & 28.6K deaths
Bergen Co: 110,808 cases & 2,715 deaths

NJ & NY Detail:
The RT in NJ has risen to 1.41.
NJ had 1,650 & NY has 3,683 hospitalizations.
NJ has 8.02% & NY has 4.6% positivity.
NJ had 6.3 million full vaccines, 7.0 first shots, & 1.7 million boosters for 9.2 million people.

21-Day Daily Averages:
Globally: 572K cases & 7.3K deaths
The USA: 104K cases & 1.2K deaths
NY State: 7.1K cases & 72 deaths
NJ State: 2. 9K cases & 25 deaths
Bergen Co: 235 cases & 1 death

[jeremyp]

The first reported Omicron death:

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/bri...te-2021-12-13/

On Saturday, Britain reported 633 new confirmed cases of omicron; on Sunday, 1,239; and on Monday, another 1,576, for a total of 4,713 confirmed cases of the variant in the country.
Scientists suspect there are in reality 10,000s of new but unreported infections a day.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/britain-omicron-death-variant-coronavirus/2021/12/13/cd87da44-5c0a-11ec-b1ef-cb78be717f0e_story.html

[jeremyp]

New research shows more than 40% of those who tested positive for COVID-19 were asymptomatic, according to the study published Tuesday in JAMA Network Open.

Researchers looked at 95 studies from January 2020 to February 2021 consisting of nearly 30 million people in Asia, Europe, North America, South America and Africa. More than 60% of confirmed COVID-19 cases among people under 20 were asymptomatic; nearly 50% in people 20 to 39; about 32% in people 40 to 59, and about 33% in those over 60.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2021/12/14/covid-antiviral-drug-pfizer-vaccinations-hospitalizations-upda/6503519001/?utm_source=news-press-Coronavirus%20Watch&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=baseline_greeting&utm_term=newsletter_greeting&utm_content=1026NP-E-Coronavirus-Watch

[NotDutra5]

New research shows more than 40% of those who tested positive for COVID-19 were asymptomatic, according to the study published Tuesday in JAMA Network Open.

Wouldn't this lead to a conclusion that many more have been "infected" and went undiagnosed (positive test)?

[jeremyp]

Wouldn't this lead to a conclusion that many more have been "infected" and went undiagnosed (positive test)?

Yup!

[Adam$]

(AP) NHL MVP Connor McDavid calls the idea of potentially having to quarantine for up to five weeks in China following a positive COVID-19 test “unsettling” as the NHL’s participation at the 2022 Winter Games remains up in the air.

[jeremyp]

The percentage of people in New York City testing positive for COVID-19 doubled in three days this week, and a top advisor to Mayor Bill de Blasio said it was an indication of the omicron variant evading immunity in a way the virus never had before.

Meanwhile, the state of New York reported a massive surge in new positive tests -- 18,276 in one day, up more than 40% in one day and the highest single-day total since January 14.

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coronavirus/weve-never-seen-this-before-in-nyc-covid-positivity-rate-doubles-in-3-days-as-omicron-spreads/3454450/

[TN1965]

Trinidad & Tobago (118/million) has now passed Hungary (114/million) as the deadliest country in the world in the last seven days. 47% of their population are fully vaccinated, according to OneWorldData.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table

[1.609]

When I was a 4th year medical student (1983-84), I was doing a rheumatology rotation, and the rheum fellow and I started discussing Anthony Fauci, because he had written 2 of the papers we had just reviewed. This was 37 years ago and the rheum fellow and the attending rheumatologist spoke of him in awe even back then. So Fauci has been top of the medical world for a long time.

Some of the biggest attacks on him have come from Rand Paul, who I am ashamed to say was a Duke medical student about 2 years after me.

And Margarine Turdler Grease.

Someone wrote me today and simplified the situation to 2 groups each being mad at the other. I likened it to a misogynistic gang invading and raping a village - then you have 2 groups who are mad at each other, but they're not on even ground regarding the reasons for their anger. I feel like the unvaccinated are screwing the rest of us. With the rare exception of those who have valid reasons not to be vaccinated, anyone else has based their choice on nothing but fear, ignorance, bullshit and lies.

[Halfmiler2]

The percentage of people in New York City testing positive for COVID-19 doubled in three days this week, and a top advisor to Mayor Bill de Blasio said it was an indication of the omicron variant evading immunity in a way the virus never had before.

Meanwhile, the state of New York reported a massive surge in new positive tests -- 18,276 in one day, up more than 40% in one day and the highest single-day total since January 14.

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coro...reads/3454450/

NJ has had 6K daily cases for 3 straight cases after being at 2K just a couple weeks ago. But the number of deaths has not gone up that much - which fits the word that omicron is more easily transmitted but milder.

[18.99s]

NJ has had 6K daily cases for 3 straight cases after being at 2K just a couple weeks ago. But the number of deaths has not gone up that much - which fits the word that omicron is more easily transmitted but milder.

However, deaths lag cases by a couple weeks, so we'll have to wait until January to see what really happens with the death numbers there.

[Halfmiler2]

And now NJ has reported 6K cases for the 4th day in a row but only six reported deaths yesterday.

I am not so sure the deaths will be much of a lagging indicator this time because the hospitalizations seem to have leveled off, the treatments are better than previously, and the variant seems milder.

[jeremyp]

And now NJ has reported 6K cases for the 4th day in a row but only six reported deaths yesterday.

I am not so sure the deaths will be much of a lagging indicator this time because the hospitalizations seem to have leveled off, the treatments are better than previously, and the variant seems milder.

Wait and see. In Germany Deaths went from 150+- daily to 600 daily in the last week. And they have a great health system. And a healthy population.

In last week for Deaths : France is up 18%, Spain and Italy 24% and S.Africa, home of Omicron up 52%.
The key stat now is hospitalizations.

[18.99s]

https://www.reuters.com/business/hea...on-2021-12-14/

FRANKFURT, Dec 14 (Reuters) - German researchers have found that COVID-19 therapies developed by Eli Lilly (LLY.N) and Regeneron (REGN.O) lose most of their effectiveness when exposed in laboratory tests to the Omicron variant of coronavirus, likely reducing treatment options if the new variant prevails.

As I learned in this interview (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Oww1OS5IY4) with the president of Regeneron, the immune system doesn't produce antibodies specific to the invading virus; it produces a wide variety of different antibodies, of which one or a few types (probably) will be effective against the virus. To generate the synthetic antibodies, Regeron's scientists selected and cloned the most effective antibody from people and mice who survived Covid.

That lack of diversity of antibodies makes the monoclonal treatment highly effective against the variant(s) which were selected for, but also makes them vulnerable to losing effectiveness when the virus has significant mutations. Whereas the variety of antibodies from people who survived Covid or got the vaccine will be more likely to include some antibodies which are effective against mutations.