the no-nonsense, nothing-but-the-facts-m'am C19 thread

[jeremyp]

A good sign on Wednesday: the Rt (Replacement) rate in NJ fell under 1.0 to 0.92. The recent peak was 1.92 on 1/1. A number under 1.0 means that current patients are likely to pass on the virus to less than one new patient which means the trend is contracting.

Hospitalizations and new cases are also off their recent peaks.

On the other hand NY had a death toll over 400, a huge spike (which may or may not have something to do with weekend data lag). 911 deaths in last 3 days.

[Halfmiler2]

Weekly Update:
The MLK Day (1/17/22) Afternoon Numbers:

Cumulative Numbers:
Globally: 319.934 million cases & 5,516K deaths
The USA: 65.815 million cases & 850.0K deaths
NY State: 4.570 million cases & 50.9K deaths
NJ State: 1.732 million cases & 27,252 deaths
Bergen Co: 175,114 cases & 2,864 deaths

NJ & NY Detail:
The Rt for NJ fell to 1.02 from the 1/1 peak of 1.92
NJ positivity rate fell to 24%. NY rate fell to 18.6%.
NJ hospitalizations fell to 5,307. NY rose to 12,207.
NJ has 6.5 million fully vaxed - 76%.
NJ has 7.5 million first shots - 87%.
NJ has 2.5 million boosters - 52%.
NY has 15.5 million vaxed - 79.6%.
NJ has 30,809 & NY has 62,891 deaths including probables.

7-Day Daily Averages:
Globally: 2.410 million cases & 5.9K deaths
The USA: 0.804 million cases & 1.9K deaths
NY State: 63,074 cases & 179 deaths
NJ State: 16,987 cases & 89.6 deaths
Bergen Co: 2,035 cases & 14.3 deaths

Weekly Update:
The Monday (1/24/22) afternoon numbers:

Cumulative Numbers:
Globally: 349.019 million cases & 5,587K deaths
The USA: 70.668 million cases & 866.0 K deaths
NY State: 4.698 million cases & 51,987 deaths
NJ State: 1.792 million cases & 27,892 deaths
Bergen Co: 181,724 cases & 2,922 deaths

Global numbers exclude China which has not reported any deaths in almost 2 years. NY & NJ numbers include only confirmed and not probable numbers.

NJ & NY Details:
The Rt for NJ fell to 0.64.
NJ has 15.86% & NY has 10% positivity rates.
NJ fell to 4,093 & NY fell to 9,798 hospitalizations
NJ has 7.51 million first shots (87%).
NJ has 7.56 million full vaxes (76%).
NJ had 2.69 million boosters (54%).
NY has 15.6 million full vaxes (80%).
NJ has 30,799 & NY has 64.4K deaths including probables.

7-day Daily Averages:
Globally: 3.728 million cases & 10.1K deaths
The USA: 0.693 million cases & 2.3K deaths
NY State: 23,386 cases & 150 deaths
NJ State: 8,743 cases & 91.4 deaths
Bergen Co: 944 cases & 8.3 deaths

[Tuariki]

After 2 years of averaging 20 covid cases a day, New Zealand is bracing itself for the Omicron onslaught which is now out in the community.

The experts are predicting we will likely exceed 10,000 cases a day by end of February.

With more than 95% of eligible kiwis fully vaxed, hopefully we will still be able to keep our death rate low which has averaged 2 a month over the past 2 years.

[KevinR]

Pulling for y'all, Tuariki. With that level of vaccination, I expect that the harshest effects of Omicron will be tolerable.

[TN1965]

COVID hits one of the last uninfected places on the planet

https://www.yahoo.com/news/covid-hits-one-last-uninfected-025228110.html

When the coronavirus began spreading around the world, the remote Pacific archipelago of Kiribati closed its borders, ensuring the disease didn't reach its shores for nearly two full years.

[SoCal45]

Well, shit like this doesn't help: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/27/w...accinated.html

[gh]

from the NY Times morning briefing:

Screen Shot 2022-01-31 at 07.47.11.png

[scottmitchell74]

gh, did they have age breakdowns by chance?

[gh]

gh, did they have age breakdowns by chance?

buried somewhere in here those numbers can probably be teased out:

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e2.htm?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20220131&instance_id=51759&nl=the-morning&regi_id=101120217&segment_id=81212&te=1&user_id=461583dbf0c972a8ad64ec6c6db2007c

[jazzcyclist]

gh, did they have age breakdowns by chance?

That's important since unvaccinated people skew towards the younger segment of the population. What I think most folks on this board would be interested in is the different mortality rates for the 50 and over crowd.

[scottmitchell74]

Thanks boss.

Am I reading this right:

≥65

10,006

33.4

4,710

3.1

11.0 (9.8–12.2)

242

0.5

61.4 (47.8–78.9)

My vaxxed but not boosted parents are 6x more likely to die if they get it, but still very unlikely to die. For someone who normally loves numbers and stats those CDC charts still make my head spin.

[Halfmiler2]

Weekly Update:
The Monday (1/24/22) afternoon numbers:

Cumulative Numbers:
Globally: 349.019 million cases & 5,587K deaths
The USA: 70.668 million cases & 866.0 K deaths
NY State: 4.570 million cases & 50.9K deaths
NJ State: 1.792 million cases & 27,892 deaths
Bergen Co: 181,724 cases & 2,922 deaths

Global numbers exclude China which has not reported any deaths in almost 2 years. NY & NJ numbers include only confirmed and not probable numbers.

NJ & NY Details:
The Rt for NJ fell to 0.64.
NJ has 15.86% & NY has 10% positivity rates.
NJ fell to 4,093 & NY fell to 9,798 hospitalizations
NJ has 7.51 million first shots (87%).
NJ has 7.56 million full vaxes (76%).
NJ had 2.69 million boosters (54%).
NY has 15.6 million full vaxes (80%).
NJ has 30,799 & NY has 64.4K deaths including probables.

7-day Daily Averages:
Globally: 3.728 million cases & 10.1K deaths
The USA: 0.693 million cases & 2.3K deaths
NY State: 23,386 cases & 150 deaths
NJ State: 8,743 cases & 91.4 deaths
Bergen Co: 944 cases & 8.3 deaths

Weekly Update:
The Monday (1/31/22) afternoon numbers:

Cumulative Numbers:
Globally: 369.950 million cases & 5,646K deaths
The USA: 74.329 million cases & 883.4K deaths
NY State: 4.783 million cases & 52,961 deaths
NJ State: 1.826 million cases & 28,524 deaths
Bergen Co: 184,695 cases & 2,972 deaths

NJ & NY Detail:

The Rt for NJ fell to 0.55.
NJ has 2,926 & NY has 7,191 hospitalizations
NJ has 11.49% and NY has 6.6% positivity %.
NJ has 6.58 million fully vaxed (77%).
NJ has 7.54 million 1st shots (91%).
NJ has 2.74 million boosters (55%).
NY has 15.66 million fully vaxed (80.5%).


7-day Daily Average:
Globally: 2.975 million cases & 8.4K deaths
The USA: 0.523 million cases & 2.6K deaths
NY State: 12,304 cases & 139 deaths
NJ State: 4.9K cases & 90 deathsm
Bergen Co: 400 cases & 7 deaths

[1.609]

buried somewhere in here those numbers can probably be teased out:

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/...64ec6c6db2007c

They're in 2 tables. The second table has a third category for boosted folks and includes the time period after the January 19 study. It removes much of the confusion from that study. The Jan 19 study never claimed that natural immunity was as good as vaccination. It showed that the arrival of Delta coincided with waning of vaccine induced immunity, and clearly stated that further study would be needed. It stated in the summary that vaccination was still the best course to prevent future illness and deaths. That's what this latest release addresses and makes clear.

I tried copying the column titles but doesn't work. Just look for Table 2 to see how these total and weekly numbers are labelled.

It's interesting how just over 10 days ago, people were ready to say "Maybe Novax was right....etc" and how quickly that evaporated. That's why the CDC pointed out the limitations in the first study, but the media typically ignores that.

October–November
Overall (age-standardized)	16,527	7.8	5,493	0.6	12.7 (11.6–13.8)	285	0.1	53.2 (37.5–75.4)
Age, yrs
18–49	2,094	1.0	124	0.0	27.6 (16.3–46.5)	5	0.0	NC***
50–64	4,427	7.3	659	0.4	21.0 (18.9–23.2)	38	0.2	38.0 (17.1–78.9)
≥65	10,006	33.4	4,710	3.1	11.0 (9.8–12.2)	242	0.5	61.4 (47.8–78.9)

[Halfmiler2]

Weekly Update:
The Monday (1/31/22) afternoon numbers:

Cumulative Numbers:
Globally: 369.950 million cases & 5,646K deaths
The USA: 74.329 million cases & 883.4K deaths
NY State: 4.783 million cases & 52,961 deaths
NJ State: 1.826 million cases & 28,524 deaths
Bergen Co: 184,695 cases & 2,972 deaths

NJ & NY Detail:

The Rt for NJ fell to 0.55.
NJ has 2,926 & NY has 7,191 hospitalizations
NJ has 11.49% and NY has 6.6% positivity %.
NJ has 6.5 million fully vaxed (77%).
NJ has 7.54 million 1st shots (91%).
NJ has 2.74 million boosters (55%).
NY has 15.66 million fully vaxed (80.5%).


7-day Daily Average:
Globally: 2.975 million cases & 8.4K deaths
The USA: 0.523 million cases & 2.6K deaths
NY State: 12,304 cases & 139 deaths
NJ State: 4.9K cases & 90 deathsm
Bergen Co: 400 cases & 7 deaths

Weekly Update
The Monday (2/7/22) Afternoon Numbers:

Cumulative Numbers:
Globally: 394.872 Million cases & 5,736K deaths
The USA: 76.505 Million cases & 902.6K deaths
NY State: 4.840 Million cases & 53.8K deaths
NJ State: 1.843 Million cases & 29.050K deaths
Bergen Co: 186,252 cases & 3,020 deaths

Global numbers exclude China which has reported no deaths in almost 2 years. NY, NJ, & Bergen numbers only include confirmed numbers, not probable numbers.

NJ & NY detail:
The RT for NJ fell to 0.52.
The NY positivity rate is at 5.2%.
NJ has 1,910 & NY has 5,811 hospitalizations.
NJ has 6.5 million fully vaxed (77%).
NJ had 7.7 million 1st shots (91%).
NJ has 2.9 million boosters (51%).
NY has 15.7 million fully vaxed (81%).

7-Day Daily Averages:
Globally: 3,550K cases & 13.7K deaths
The USA: 315K cases & 2.75K deaths
NY State: 8,552 cases & 115 deaths
NJ State: 2,593 cases & 75 deaths
Bergen Co: 223 cases & 7 deaths

[jeremyp]

It ain't over til it's over.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2022/02/08/omicron-deaths-covid/

"the seven-day average of deaths during the omicron surge has reached2,600 in recent days, climbing past the late September peak of about 2,000 average daily fatalities during the surge of the more dangerous delta variant, according to Post tracking. The ranks of hospitalized patients with covid-19 reached record highs in January. Coronavirus deaths lag hospitalizations.

The latest victims tend to be older, according to a Post review of federal data. Nearly half of the deaths in January 2022 were among those 75 and older, compared to about a third in September.

Florida has seen similar age trends, with seniors making up about 85 percent of deaths last winter, about 60 percent during the delta surge and back to about 80 percent in the omicron surge. He suspects factors include seniors who were recently vaccinated during the delta surge but did not get boosters ahead of omicron and higher raw numbers of seniors infected in the latest wave."

“You are flooding the system with so many patients that the crude number of deaths is going to be higher, but what we really focus on is the death rate,” said Robert Citronberg, Advocate Aurora Health’s executive medical director of infectious disease and prevention. He noted nearly all the latest deaths have been among the unvaccinated.

“There’s also a big group of patients who are politically motivated and don’t want to be told what to do,” Citronberg said. “They are willing to die from this disease because they don’t want to be told what to do, and it’s basically crazy.”