the no-nonsense, nothing-but-the-facts-m'am C19 thread

[scottmitchell74]

Since January 1 2022 the U.S. has been averaging 2200 deaths a day or a total of 105K+ deaths.

A year ago over the same period we had 142K deaths or almost 3k deaths per day. A pandemic is a pandemic and not yet the endemic many people want to act like it is.

I do not want to start a whole furious debate. I'm not being rhetorical. I'm simply really really wondering how many are dying "with" vs "of" and how you would even know for sure. This disease, and especially Omicron, is so catchy that so many people who happen to die of something will also be found to have recently had Omicron, especially if they've been in a hospital, home, institution for any length of time. To me those are fudgy, iffy stats. This makes no mention of certain motivations at health facilities to label something a "covid" death.

The US is also so obese, on average, that that's been on my mind as well. Many of the "success" nations are nations that are way, way less obese than the US. I can't help but think that has to be a huge factor.

[18.99s]

Since January 1 2022 the U.S. has been averaging 2200 deaths a day or a total of 105K+ deaths.

A year ago over the same period we had 142K deaths or almost 3k deaths per day. A pandemic is a pandemic and not yet the endemic many people want to act like it is.

Almost triple the cases as the same time frame last year, but about 70% of the deaths. That's a case fatality rate about 1/4 of what it was early last year; a step towards endemic but not there yet.

[18.99s]

I do not want to start a whole furious debate. I'm not being rhetorical. I'm simply really really wondering how many are dying "with" vs "of" and how you would even know for sure. This disease, and especially Omicron, is so catchy that so many people who happen to die of something will also be found to have recently had Omicron, especially if they've been in a hospital, home, institution for any length of time. To me those are fudgy, iffy stats. This makes no mention of certain motivations at health facilities to label something a "covid" death.

One way to discern that is to look at "excess deaths", i.e. deaths from all causes during the pandemic years relative to deaths in prior years, after accounting for the small annual increase in deaths due to aging and population growth.

The excess death numbers indicate the Covid deaths may have been undercounted rather than overcounted for 2020.

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infecti.../covid19/91910

No harder measure of the coronavirus pandemic's toll exists: death from any cause rose 23% nationwide in 2020.

That meant 522,368 excess deaths from March through the end of 2020 compared with a projection from the prior 5 years, Steven Woolf, MD, MPH, of Virginia Commonwealth University School of Medicine in Richmond, and colleagues reported in JAMA.

It's well above the unofficial tally of COVID-19 deaths, which reached about 339,000 deaths by the end of 2020.

This more recent article states 1M excess deaths in the US since the pandemic began. Some of that is the increase in opioid overdoses, but even after accounting for that the number is still close to the published Covid tally of 920M deaths.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/a...arly-2020.html

[18.99s]

100% of the deaths blamed on Covid aren't going to be accurate, but there is no evidence to show that the deliberate fudging and honest but erroneous recording is so widespread as to overcount by 20% or more.

[scottmitchell74]

18.99s - Good stuff.

I think it will take an Erin Brockovich type 10 year deep-dive after this is all over to tease it all out, and you'll need 100 Erin's to get it done.

[KevinR]

True, there are most likely minor errors in the total counts, but I see no indication of, or cause to, artificially inflate the numbers of deaths. Medical professionals are a fairly responsible lot. The number that you can be more confident is incorrect is the number of total cases in the country. With the advent of home testing, and no requirement for those testing positive at home to self-report their status, it is certainly undercounting. The good news from that would seem to be that the Omicron variant may be even less lethal than it currently seems.

But if someone dies of a heart attack and tests positive for the virus, I am fairly confident that their death certificate will say Coronary Event or words to that effect.

[jeremyp]

100% of the deaths blamed on Covid aren't going to be accurate, but there is no evidence to show that the deliberate fudging and honest but erroneous recording is so widespread as to overcount by 20% or more.

And many deaths caused by Covid aren't going to be blamed on Covid. Pneumonia is a good example. Covid often leads to pneumonia, yet the death may be called pneumonia.

[NotDutra5]

True, there are most likely minor errors in the total counts, but I see no indication of, or cause to, artificially inflate the numbers of deaths. Medical professionals are a fairly responsible lot. The number that you can be more confident is incorrect is the number of total cases in the country. With the advent of home testing, and no requirement for those testing positive at home to self-report their status, it is certainly undercounting. The good news from that would seem to be that the Omicron variant may be even less lethal than it currently seems.

But if someone dies of a heart attack and tests positive for the virus, I am fairly confident that their death certificate will say Coronary Event or words to that effect.

I think it was mentioned that Bob Saget had Covid when he passed (due to some head trauma) recently. Not included in the Covid count.

[Trickstat]

In the UK, the figures given are for people whose deaths occurred within 28 days of a positive Covid test. It is careful not to say these are all deaths caused by Covid. I do wonder if deaths in the category of "tested positive 25 days before but had no or limited symptoms but was in a road accident" are excluded but they would be insignificant in percentage terms.

[jeremyp]

The question we will probably never get an answer to is: "Would they have died had they not had covid?" Many deaths in old people have a number of different potentially fatal conditions. My mother had COPD and heart issues. Her heart gave out during a COPD emergency. Presumably the Death Certificate would list both.

[bad hammy]

The question we will probably never get an answer to is: "Would they have died had they not had covid?" Many deaths in old people have a number of different potentially fatal conditions.

That's where the "excess deaths over norms" that 18.99 posted about a few posts back comes in. The primary citation from his post:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-10520857/The-recorded-ONE-MILLION-excess-Covid-deaths-COVID-19-pandemic-began-early-2020.html

[18.99s]

The question we will probably never get an answer to is: "Would they have died had they not had covid?"

For people with pre-existing heart and/or lung problems, that is often unknowable on an individual basis. However, when asked about a population, the question becomes "would this many people have died without Covid"? That's where the "excess deaths" analysis comes into the picture. With Covid in 2020, the year-over-year deaths from all causes in the US had by far the largest jump in over 100 years.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...eath-toll.html

deathschart.png

[wamego relays champ]

Got a Covid Booster? You Probably Won’t Need Another for a Long Time
A flurry of new studies suggest that several parts of the immune system can mount a sustained, potent response to any coronavirus variant.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/21/health/covid-vaccine-antibodies-t-cells.html

Might be behind their paywall, but this article delivers some good news from recent studies that focus not just on antibodies, but t-cells that support the immune response.

The Omicron variant can dodge antibodies — immune molecules that prevent the virus from infecting cells — produced after two doses of a Covid vaccine. But a third shot of the mRNA vaccines made by Pfizer-BioNTech or by Moderna prompts the body to make a much wider variety of antibodies, which would be difficult for any variant of the virus to evade, according to the most recent study, posted online on Tuesday.

What’s more, other parts of the immune system can remember and destroy the virus over many months if not years, according to at least four studies published in top-tier journals over the past month.

Specialized immune cells called T cells produced after immunization by four brands of Covid vaccine — Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, Johnson & Johnson and Novavax — are about 80 percent as powerful against Omicron as other variants, the research found. Given how different Omicron’s mutations are from previous variants, it’s very likely that T cells would mount a similarly robust attack on any future variant as well, researchers said.

[jeremyp]

Something wicked this way comes???

"As the omicron surge continues to decline in the U.S., infectious disease experts are keeping a close eye on an even more contagious version of the variant that could once again foil the nation's hopes of getting back to normal.

The virus, known as BA.2, is a strain of the highly contagious omicron variant that appears to spread even more easily — about 30% more easily.

BA.2 has now been found from coast to coast and accounts for an estimated 3.9% all new infections nationally, according to the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. It appears to be doubling fast.

"If it doubles again to 8%, that means we're into the exponential growth phase and we may be staring at another wave of COVID-19 coming in the U.S.," says Samuel Scarpino, the manager director of pathogen surveillance at the Rockefeller Foundation.

"And that's of course the one we're really worried about. We're all on the edge of our seats," he says.

Some experts think it's unlikely BA.2 will trigger a massive new surge because so many people have immunity from prior infections and vaccination at this point.

"The most likely thing that's going to happen is that it might extend our tail, meaning it might slow down the decrease in cases. But it's probably not going to lead to a new wave of cases," says Grubaugh.

"There is this lurking threat of BA.2. And we need to make sure this isn't going to be a problem before we roll back all the mandates, before we tell everybody that it's safe," Scarpino says.

Otherwise, the nation could get blindsided yet again."

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-...variant-spread

[Halfmiler2]

Weekly Update:
The St Valentine’s Day (2/14/22) afternoon numbers:

Cumulative Numbers:
Globally: 408.348 million cases & 5,798K deaths
The USA: 77.652 million cases & 928K deaths
NY State: 4.867 million cases & 54,174 deaths
NJ State: 1.855 million cases & 29,450 deaths
Bergen Co: 187,367 cases & 3,049 deaths

NJ & NY Detail: The NJ RT held at 0.52.
NJ had 4.65% & NY had 3.1% positivity rate.
NJ has 1,428 & NY had 3,524 hospitalizations.
Fully vaxed: NJ 79%, NY 81%, USA 61%.
1+ shots: NJ 90%
Boosters: NJ 53%

7-day daily averages:
Globally: 1,925K cases & 8.9K deaths
The USA: 160K cases & 2.3K deaths
NY State: 4,669 cases & 71 deaths
NJ State: 1,668 cases & 57 deaths
Bergen Co: 159 cases & 4 deaths

Weekly Update:
The Presidents Day (2/21/22) afternoon numbers:

Cumulative Numbers:
Globally: 421.609 million cases & 5,869K deaths
The USA: 78.424 million cases & 938K deaths
NY State: 4.888 million cases & 54,492 deaths
NJ State: 1.865 million cases & 29,762 deaths
Bergen Co: 188K cases & 3,083 deaths

NJ & NY Detail:
The RT for NJ edged up to 0.63.
NJ has 3.32% & NY had 2.2% positivity rates.
NJ has 1,032 & NY had 2,522 hospitalizations
NJ had 32,711 & NY had 66,349 deaths including probables.

7-Day Daily Averages:
Globally: 1.893 million cases & 10.1K deaths
The USA: 110K cases & 1.4K deaths
NY State: 3,043 cases & 47 deaths
NJ State; 1,537 cases & 45 deaths
Bergen Co: 150 cases & 5 deaths