the no-nonsense, nothing-but-the-facts-m'am C19 thread

[Conor Dary]

Getting your 'facts' from YouTube is the road to disaster.

[scottmitchell74]

https://youtu.be/BPbCA5hiEfM

Facts

[Halfmiler2]

Here are close to 2021 year-end numbers That include probable deaths for NY, NJ, and Bergen County.

The New Year’s (1/1/22) afternoon numbers:

Cumulative Numbers:
Globally: 286.440 million cases & 5,425K deaths
The USA: 54.686 million cases & 824.3K deaths
NY State: 3.555 million cases & 61,159 deaths
NJ State: 1.373 million cases & 29,053 deaths
Bergen Co.: 124,344 cases & 3,048 deaths

NJ & NY detail:

NJ has 4,005 & NY has 7,373 hospitalizations
The RT for NJ rose to 1.92.
The NJ had 33.85% & NY had 16.2% positivity %.

Here are close to 2022 year-end numbers as of 1/1/23:

Globally: 659.467 million cases & 6.687 million deaths
The USA: 100.707 million cases & 1.100 million deaths
NY State: 6.439 million cases & 76,728 deaths
NJ State: 2.927 million cases & 35,510 deaths
Bergen Co.: 312,655 cases & 3,675 deaths

NY & NJ Details:
NJ Replacement Rate: 1.08
NJ has 1,533 and NY has 3,565 hospitalizations.
NJ has 80.8% & NY 84.6% vaccination rate.
USA has 80.8% vaccinations rate.

[Halfmiler2]

The NJ replacement rate is at 1.07. Over 1.0 means COVID pandemic is growing. Under 1.0 means COVID pandemic is contracting.

It has been on a seesaw course the late month: first shooting up to 1.71 after Thanksgiving, then dropping under 1.0, and now going back over 1.0.

[jeremyp]

"Some 250 million people in China may have been infected with COVID-19 in the first 20 days of December, according to leaked figures from Beijing’s senior health officials reported by US media.
According to the information published by Bloomberg and the Financial Times, 37 million people were estimated to have caught the virus on Tuesday alone, in contrast to official data counting 3,049 cases on that day, and 62,592 symptomatic infections during the first 20 days of this month.
Citing two sources involved in the matter, the Financial Times reported that Sun Yang, a deputy director of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, presented the shocking figures to a meeting of China’s National Health Commission (NHC) on Wednesday."

If true and 1% is a possible death rate then 2-3 million people may die.Stay tuned.


https://www.timesofisrael.com/report...-covid-policy/

[Conor Dary]

Meanwhile...

A New Zealand couple is refusing to allow their infant son to undergo lifesaving heart surgery using blood from people vaccinated against Covid-19, showing how vaccine misinformation continues to manifest in unexpected ways two years into global inoculation campaigns.

The 4-month-old is critically ill with a severe case of pulmonary valve stenosis, a heart valve disorder. The boy’s mother says she wants her son’s operation to take place without delay, but she has demanded that “safe blood” be used, with her lawyer saying that the family was concerned about blood containing traces of vaccines using new mRNA technology.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/05/world/australia/new-zealand-baby-vaccine.html?smid=tw-share

[Halfmiler2]

I regret that we do not have time to do a monthly COVID numbers update this week. We are busy at the USATF Annual Meeting which takes priority. We hope to be back with an update on January 1st. We can tell you that the NJ replacement rate has dropped was below the neutral 1.0 to 0.88.

[Halfmiler2]

In NJ, the Replacement rate had been under 1.0 (neutral) most of October but gone over 1.0 the past couple weeks peaking at 1.11. But it has now trended down to 1.01. We will have to see whether there is a spike for the holidays.

The good news is that the NJ Replacement rate in the past week had dropped under 1.0 again to 0.91 which means that COVID is contracting again.

[TN1965]

As of November 15, the seven-day moving average of global death is 988. The first time it is under 1000 since March 2020.

[Halfmiler2]

In NJ, the Replacement rate had been under 1.0 (neutral) most of October but gone over 1.0 the past couple weeks peaking at 1.11. But it has now trended down to 1.01. We will have to see whether there is a spike for the holidays.

[Adam$]

Cruise ship Majestic Princess to dock in Sydney with 800 Covid cases on board
The biggest single outbreak since the Ruby Princess disaster of 2020 comes amid a wave of cases across Australia
Read on The Guardian

[bambam1729]

I had the bivalent booster yesterday. I'm fully boosted (my 5th shot) and I had COVID in June 2022. This was the first time I've had any symptoms after a COVID vaccination as I felt like crap this AM when I woke up, but it has gone away fairly quickly. Was fine by about lunchtime. My wife has had symptoms after each one of her shots and has opted not to get the bivalent booster as a result - can't really blame her. She also had COVID in June and has had 4 shots so she should be well protected.

[Halfmiler2]

Monthly Update:

Cumulative Numbers at 10/1/22 PM:
Global: 617.584 million cases & 6.545 million deaths
The USA: 96.395 million cases & 1.060 mill deaths
NY State: 6.109 million cases & 58,124 deaths
NJ State: 2.3 million cases & 31,630 deaths
Bergen County numbers unavailable.
(NY and NJ numbers are confirmed numbers only excluding probable numbers.)

NJ and NJ Detail:
NJ RT is 1.14 and been over 1.0 most of the month.
NJ has 910 & NY has 2,306 hospitalizations
NJ has 7.06 & NY has 16.314 million vaccinations
NJ has 10.37% & NY has 7.1% positivity rates.
NJ has 34,744 & NY has 74,242 deaths including probables.

No monthly update as I am down with COVID and not up to researching it. It is my second time as I had it twenty months ago. Symptoms are so-so.

[mgallagh43]

Here's my fate tempting post...

Early in the pandemic in a deleted thread there was discussion on other respiratory illnesses and effectiveness of vaccinations/treatments.

One medico poster who unfortunately I can't remember mentioned the ongoing failure to produce an effective vaccine for Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) despite long term efforts. I responded, perhaps too hopefully, that the significant advances in vaccine technology in the last decade had a much higher chance of producing something useful in the near term as it might for COVID-19.

Well, the good news is that Pfizer has published data on its most recent protein-based vaccine for RSV that showed an 81.8% efficacy against severe lower respiratory illness. Pfizer will be submitting the vaccine for approval later this year for both infants and older people.

Link to study in New England Journal of Medicine: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2106062

It's worth noting that both COVID-19 and RSV generate high risk for similar vulnerable groups of older adults, so anything which reduces that risk should reduce death risk and burden on the hospital system.


RSV is a major disease for both infants and also older people with USA stats of:

• 58,000 children younger than 5 years old hospitalized
• 60,000-120,000 older adults hospitalized with 6,000-10,000 of them dying

https://www.cdc.gov/rsv/index.html

I'm cautiously hopeful. The study doesn't look at a cohort older than the first 3 months of life, so we're a ways away from getting data on the older age groups, but most hospitalizations occur in kids from months 1-3 regardless. The tldr is this is actually a vaccine relying on maternal passage of antibodies to the newborn, so you give it to mom before she gives birth.

The thing to note here is they didn't hit their secondary efficacy endpoint for reducing all infections requiring medical attention (iirc efficacy was around 57% at 3 months, 51% at 6-month follow-up) so we may not see a dramatic change in rates of hospitalizations but definitely a reduction in the worst outcomes.

Given how RSV "season" is going this year, we could use this one ASAP.

[El Toro]

please recall that this thread has very tight parameters and is about COVID facts and nothing else

Here's my fate tempting post...

Early in the pandemic in a deleted thread there was discussion on other respiratory illnesses and effectiveness of vaccinations/treatments.

One medico poster who unfortunately I can't remember mentioned the ongoing failure to produce an effective vaccine for Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) despite long term efforts. I responded, perhaps too hopefully, that the significant advances in vaccine technology in the last decade had a much higher chance of producing something useful in the near term as it might for COVID-19.

Well, the good news is that Pfizer has published data on its most recent protein-based vaccine for RSV that showed an 81.8% efficacy against severe lower respiratory illness. Pfizer will be submitting the vaccine for approval later this year for both infants and older people.

Link to study in New England Journal of Medicine: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2106062

It's worth noting that both COVID-19 and RSV generate high risk for similar vulnerable groups of older adults, so anything which reduces that risk should reduce death risk and burden on the hospital system.


RSV is a major disease for both infants and also older people with USA stats of:

• 58,000 children younger than 5 years old hospitalized
• 60,000-120,000 older adults hospitalized with 6,000-10,000 of them dying

https://www.cdc.gov/rsv/index.html