the no-nonsense, nothing-but-the-facts-m'am C19 thread

[americantrackfan]

I'm starting to get pretty annoyed by all the discussion I see of a "second wave."

We're waaaay before the end of a first wave. All we've done is basically hold the deaths and newly diagnosed cases steady. And that's with all the staying home and canceling everything and social distancing. And testing is slowly getting better but still completely inadequate in many areas. So we don't even know how many people are really infected, just that it's more than the official numbers

[bhall]

From @mlipsitch

This article is better than its headline (can we just stop the antiquated tradition of letting late-night copyeditors write the titles that may be all anyone reads of our long articles that we labor over?), "Models vs. Evidence".

http://bostonreview.net/science-natu...els-v-evidence

[bhall]

Opinion - ‘Serology’ is the new coronavirus buzzword. Here’s why it matters.

By Marc Lipsitch

Marc Lipsitch is a professor of epidemiology and director of the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.

“Serology” is the new buzzword in covid-19 epidemiology, for good reason. Widespread tests to determine whether people are “seropositive” — carrying antibodies indicating that they have been infected with the virus — are essential to understanding where we are in the pandemic.

But in the rush to generate and interpret serologic data, it can be hard for anyone, including experts, to understand what serologic studies can and cannot teach us. Why are they so important, and what decisions will they inform?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...hy-it-matters/

[bhall]

No More Jenga, No More ‘Amen’ as Cities Learn to Live With Coronavirus

In parts of Asia and Australia, people are going out — but social distancing and other restrictions have become the new normal.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/02/w...5298fcd2932714

[bhall]

The Health 202: Coronavirus is shifting from urban areas to rural ones

Nearly 9 in 10 rural counties in the United States now have at least one covid-19 patient.

Rural areas of the country, where 15 percent of Americans live, are seeing a rise in new daily cases even as the numbers decline in New York City and other urban centers that are now past their peak, according to Carrie Henning-Smith, a rural health researcher at the University of Minnesota School of Public Health. These new hot spots aren’t seeing the declines experts had hoped for, even after weeks of social distancing.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...ff15fb00257f8/

[Halfmiler2]

The major article on the Wall Street Journal sports page today (behind the paywall) is about the need for a vaccine in order for the Olympic Games to be held next year. It also says that a further postponement in impractical.

[NotDutra5]

Meanwhile.....

Live updates: Vice President Pence says coronavirus task force could be disbanded within a month

Vice President Pence told reporters today that the coronavirus task force created to manage the federal government’s response to the pandemic could be disbanded within a month because “of the tremendous progress we’ve made as a country.”

The task force is headed by Pence and made up of officials from the administration, including public health officials who have urged a careful approach to easing social distancing restriction put in place to mitigate the outbreak.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/05/05/coronavirus-update-us/#link-SNV2URCXF5G2LECW4G4VVVFGEE

Apparently this has been re-considered to some degree.

[Conor Dary]

The major article on the Wall Street Journal sports page today (behind the paywall) is about the need for a vaccine in order for the Olympic Games to be held next year. It also says that a further postponement in impractical.

Mounting promises on Covid-19 vaccines are fueling false expectations, experts say

Vaccines to prevent Covid-19 infection are hurtling through development at speeds never before seen. But mounting promises that some vaccine may be available for emergency use as early as the autumn are fueling expectations that are simply unrealistic, experts warn.

Even if the stages of vaccine development could be compressed and supplies could be rapidly manufactured and deployed, it could take many more months or longer before most Americans would be able to roll up their sleeves. And in many countries around the world, the wait could be far longer still — perpetuating the worldwide risk the new coronavirus poses for several years to come.

“I don’t think that the general population will have vaccine probably until the second half of 2021. And that’s if everything works OK,” he said.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/06/...ovid-vaccines/

[Conor Dary]

‘An Anvil Sitting on My Chest’: What It’s Like to Have Covid-19

There’s a list of coronavirus symptoms that many can now recite from memory. And then there’s how it actually feels when you have it.

https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-symptoms.html#click=https://t.co/B466rPDG2P

[Conor Dary]

.@ScottGottliebMD
shares his thoughts on when we could see a vaccine. https://youtu.be/DdBUkxGMmrY

https://mobile.twitter.com/postlive/status/1258068101544972289

[Conor Dary]

Meanwhile....in Sweden....

Are Stockholm's Hospitals About to Break?

— "The situation is not improving and there are concerns of not enough PPE and health professionals"

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/86256

[Halfmiler2]

The Tuesday (5/5/20) early afternoon numbers:

Worldwide: 3,584K (+1%) cases & 252K (+2%) deaths
The USA: 1,208K (+2%) cases & 69,680(+1%) deaths
New York: 321K (+1%) cases & 19,415 (+1%) deaths
NYC Only: 174K (+0%) cases & 13,538 (+0%) deaths
New Jersey: 132K (+2%)cases & 8,244 (+4%) deaths
Bergen Co.: 16,460(+1%)cases & 1,261 (+4%) deaths

The percentage increase in NJ & Bergen ticked up as catch-up after the undercount of the previous day totals due to the partial network outage. About a half of NJ deaths are from long-term care facility (a growing %) but only about 1/6 of the reported cases.

The Wednesday (5/7/20) early afternoon numbers:

Worldwide: 3,692K (+3%) cases & 258K (+2%) deaths
The USA: 1,207K (+0%)cases & 71,220(+2%) deaths
New York: 327K (+2%) cases & 19,645 (+1%) deaths
NYC Only: 182K (+4%) cases & 13,538 (+0%) deaths
New Jersey: 132K (+0%)cases & 8,549 (+4%) deaths
Bergen Co: 16,520 (+0%)cases & 1,289 (+2%) deaths

New Jersey and Bergen County reported cases with less than a half percent increase. There have been no daily NYC deaths reported as yet today.

[jeremyp]

Meanwhile....in Sweden....

Are Stockholm's Hospitals About to Break?

— "The situation is not improving and there are concerns of not enough PPE and health professionals"

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infecti.../covid19/86256

Already posted..dude.

[jeremyp]

Meanwhile in Florida....
Florida on Monday night removed data from the Department of Health website that showed 171 patients had coronavirus symptoms or positive test results in January and February, before any cases were announced to the public.

The novel coronavirus could have infected as many as 171 people in Florida as long as two months before officials announced it had come to the state, a Palm Beach Post analysis of state records shows.

[user4]

Mounting promises on Covid-19 vaccines are fueling false expectations, experts say
[I]Vaccines to prevent Covid-19 infection are hurtling through development at speeds never before seen. But mounting promises that some vaccine may be available for emergency use as early as the autumn are fueling expectations that are simply unrealistic, experts warn.

40 years later and there is still no HIV vaccine.