the no-nonsense, nothing-but-the-facts-m'am C19 thread

[bhall]

Interesting that Georgia is not one of the 24 states.

Likely due to data lagging. In the last 5 or 6 days reported cases have started climbing again. The downward plateau we were on is now an upward slope.

See https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report and https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus...BSVSNQDDAuZxH/.

[user4]

https://scitechdaily.com/close-genet...ved-naturally/

[Halfmiler2]

By the way, if you want to compare other states to NY and NJ, there are now nine states with over 50K cases - Illinois is the next highest at 108K. And eleven states have over 2K deaths with Massachusetts the next highest at 6,304.

[Conor Dary]

Meanwhile....in gloomy news....

Research reality check

Politicians are working on the assumption that there will be a Covid-19 vaccine in 12 to 18 months. But many of the scientists in the field are much less certain and some fear there might never be one.

But many scientists feel a duty to dampen the enthusiasm. They say a vaccine could take much longer because little is known about the disease and how bodies will react to attempts at immunisation. In fact, some warn we may never create a vaccine for Covid-19.

Soumya Swaminathan, chief scientist for the World Health Organization, believes an optimistic scenario is a vaccine produced in the “tens of millions” next year, which would be mainly distributed to healthcare workers, and far larger volumes in 2022. To inoculate the world and defeat Covid-19 could take four to five years, she says.

We have no “crystal ball” to tell the future, she told the Financial Times. “It depends how the virus behaves: whether it mutates, whether it becomes more or less virulent, more or less transmittable.”

If a vaccine proves safe, there will still be questions about its effectiveness. Paul Stoffels, chief scientific officer at Johnson & Johnson, says one of the biggest questions is whether it will stop infection or just the disease — or even, like the flu shot, only prevent the most severe symptoms of the disease.

https://www.ft.com/content/1467b1da-...2-a6f4b68484c3

[Conor Dary]

Peter Bach, director of the Center for Health Policy and Outcomes at Memorial Sloan Kettering, says it helps that there are so many horses in this race.

Proving that a vaccine is safe and effective takes time. Participants need to be exposed to the virus to prove a vaccine works. That probably means recruiting thousands of people across the world to ensure enough live in an area where there is an outbreak, unless vaccine makers opt for the ethically complicated human challenge trials, where participants are deliberately infected.

“I don’t want to be a Debbie Downer but let’s be clear: to get a vaccine by 2021 would be like drawing multiple inside straights in a row, to use a poker analogy,” Dr Bach says.

[Atticus]

“I don’t want to be a Debbie Downer but let’s be clear: to get a vaccine by 2021 would be like drawing multiple inside straights in a row, to use a poker analogy,” Dr Bach says.[/I]

Considering that this is the first time the entire world has been shut down, my money is still on a major breakthrough this winter.

[Conor Dary]

Meanwhile....The New York Times has a sobering front page tomorrow...

[1runner1]

Meanwhile....The New York Times has a sobering front page tomorrow...

Just wondering, does the front page of NYT have anything to do with the number of Covid 19 deaths in this country and someone playing golf?

[tandfman]

Meanwhile....The New York Times has a sobering front page tomorrow...

How do you know what tomorrow's front page will look like? It's not on their website.

[Conor Dary]

How do you know what tomorrow's front page will look like? It's not on their website.

Maggie Haberman posted it on Twitter...no photos on the front page...when was the last time that happened...

[bad hammy]

Maggie Haberman posted it on Twitter...no photos on the front page...when was the last time that happened...

link??

[Conor Dary]

New York Times editorial board....

https://mobile.twitter.com/MaraGay/s...34173277491201

[1runner1]

How do you know what tomorrow's front page will look like? It's not on their website.

All the names of the deceased from Covid-19...we have inside information :-)....I could copy of photo of it that I have access to but it has a photo of a certain politician playing golf super imposed...highly doubtful that will be on front page of NYT

[Conor Dary]

All the names of the deceased from Covid-19...we have inside information :-)....I could copy of photo of it that I have access to but it has a photo of a certain politician playing golf super imposed...highly doubtful that will be on front page of NYT

You are really pushing your luck...

I said it's sobering..and sad...leave it at that....

[Conor Dary]

Meanwhile....

Pandemic Swells in South America, as the U.S. Nears 100,000 Deaths

On Friday, Brazil overtook Russia in reporting the second-highest count of infections worldwide, reaching more than 330,000 to date. Peru and Chile rank among the hardest-hit countries in the world in terms of infections per capita, around 1 in 300. And data from Ecuador indicate that the country is suffering one of the worst outbreaks in the world.

Brazil is home to several of the world’s largest metropolises, including São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. While other countries around the world began sounding the alarm as the virus arrived in February and March, Brazil’s president, Jair Bolsonaro, largely played down the threat, urging people to continue working and keeping businesses such as gyms and beauty salons open.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/23/w...ws-update.html