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  • meanwhile in Britain....

    A scientist whose modeling helped set Britain’s coronavirus strategy said Wednesday that the country’s death toll in the pandemic could have been cut in half if lockdown had been introduced a week earlier.


    https://apnews.com/052a8a930b7a214f225d3ba009058436

    Comment


    • Meanwhile....

      "When you look at hotspot regions like Arizona and Texas, they have to be concerned, particularly areas around Houston right now. they could lose control of this very quickly," says @ScottGottliebMD
      on balancing re-opening with public health.

      https://mobile.twitter.com/SquawkCNB...66344774729729

      “There’s certain parts of the country that look pretty hot right now,” Dr. Scott Gottlieb says about coronavirus spread in places like Arizona and Texas."

      https://mobile.twitter.com/CNBC/stat...53774403141634
      Last edited by Conor Dary; 06-10-2020, 07:57 PM.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Atticus View Post

        Major BS.
        OK. Grade this nugget from the Nature study on your BS scale:

        In the U.S., Slow the Spread Guidelines increased Covid-19 growth rate by 5%.
        Sunlight is said to be the best of disinfectants

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Master403 View Post

          OK. Grade this nugget from the Nature study on your BS scale:

          In the U.S., Slow the Spread Guidelines increased Covid-19 growth rate by 5%.
          I'm not finding that anywhere

          Comment


          • Originally posted by gh View Post

            I'm not finding that anywhere
            From the downloaded pdf, page 6, figure 2, section c, Effect of individual policies.
            Sunlight is said to be the best of disinfectants

            Comment


            • You do not have permission to view this gallery.
              This gallery has 1 photos.
              Sunlight is said to be the best of disinfectants

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Conor Dary View Post
                Meanwhile....

                "When you look at hotspot regions like Arizona and Texas, they have to be concerned, particularly areas around Houston right now. they could lose control of this very quickly," says @ScottGottliebMD
                on balancing re-opening with public health.

                https://mobile.twitter.com/SquawkCNB...66344774729729

                “There’s certain parts of the country that look pretty hot right now,” Dr. Scott Gottlieb says about coronavirus spread in places like Arizona and Texas."

                https://mobile.twitter.com/CNBC/stat...53774403141634
                https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/

                Very helpful site for Houston's enormous medical center

                Comment


                • Last one (I promise) from the Nature study:

                  In Italy, the combined policies of Work From Home, no gathering, and other social distancing, increased Covid-19 spread by over 15% per day.
                  Sunlight is said to be the best of disinfectants

                  Comment


                  • Meanwhile...

                    Widespread mask-wearing could prevent COVID-19 second waves: study

                    The study found that if people wear masks whenever they are in public it is twice as effective at reducing the R value than if masks are only worn after symptoms appear.

                    In all scenarios the study looked at, routine face mask use by 50% or more of the population reduced COVID-19 spread to an R of less than 1.0, flattening future disease waves and allowing for less stringent lockdowns.


                    https://mobile.reuters.com/article/a...mpression=true

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Master403 View Post
                      Last one (I promise) from the Nature study:

                      In Italy, the combined policies of Work From Home, no gathering, and other social distancing, increased Covid-19 spread by over 15% per day.
                      Compared with the parallel universe where Italy didn't do that?

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Master403 View Post
                        Last one (I promise) from the Nature study:

                        In Italy, the combined policies of Work From Home, no gathering, and other social distancing, increased Covid-19 spread by over 15% per day.
                        Increased over what? The spread that would have happened without those policies? They're going to have a tough time convincing me of that.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Trickstat View Post

                          Compared with the parallel universe where Italy didn't do that?
                          Originally posted by tandfman View Post

                          Increased over what? The spread that would have happened without those policies? They're going to have a tough time convincing me of that.
                          "Estimated effects of individual policies or policy groups on the daily growth rate of infections ..."

                          There have been some shockingly bad "studies" published with no peer review, not even reality checks, during this pandemic. None of the 15 authors looked at the results and said Hey, this makes no sense. Maybe our economic model doesn't apply here. Nature published with disclaimers. The author at Mother Jones pulled out one number to make his point, ignoring the crap it was buried in. Undoubtedly other lazy journalists will parrot it in their articles.

                          The sad thing is, this isn't the worst example.
                          Sunlight is said to be the best of disinfectants

                          Comment


                          • Brazil June 10

                            Daily new cases 33,100
                            Total Cases 775,184

                            Daily new deaths 1,300
                            Total deaths 39,797
                            Sunlight is said to be the best of disinfectants

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Atticus View Post

                              Major BS. Classrooms are petri dishes of contagion. Bugs sweep through on a regular basis. COVID is no different in this regard. I'm glad I just retired, because if my school tries to re-open in situ with some cockamamie scheme they call social-distancing, I'd be out.
                              Normally, you'd be right. BUT, this coronavirus is not the flu and is very different to other respiratory infections, so the problems and solutions are also different.

                              The accumulation of evidence indicates that children are not a great reservoir of infection and do not transmit to others on any significant scale.

                              A big HOWEVER, as PVP mentioned, transmissibility from children is age dependent:
                              <10 at zero practical risk,
                              11-15 slightly higher but still negligible,
                              16-20 quick increase of transmission risk year by year up to adult level.

                              The proposed mechanism is the immaturity of the cells infected by coronavirus. This results in lower ACE2 expression, the compound that coronavirus uses to enter cells. As children mature, ACE2 increases over time until they hit adulthood and consequently, so does infection risk. This is still to be confirmed and other factors may emerge, but it's still clear that children are different.

                              For all teachers, the greatest infection risk at school is time spent in crowded staff rooms and canteens with other teachers, or time spent with parents. Time in the classroom is not really a problem even with older students unless you are doing something like an extended tutorial at close quarters. "Chalk and talk" is OK.

                              A Chinese study could not find any evidence of children transmitting to adults in the home, a much more intimate space than school, all infections were from adults bringing the infection into the home first and passing to children.

                              Be scared of adults, not children.

                              PS. Congrats on retirement!

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by El Toro View Post
                                Be scared of adults, not children. PS. Congrats on retirement!
                                I am and thanks!

                                Comment

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