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  • Originally posted by NotDutra5 View Post
    The concern here is that the median age of 37 non compliers will infect others in more risky populations (older and/or with other health risks). That could take a few weeks to manifest.
    It will be verrrry interesting to see how we handle the RNC in August. It flies in the face of everything the state has been telling us, even as DeSantis is trying to 'open up' the state in the midst of the current worst numbers we have seen.
    Tulsa yesterday was a preview . . . we'll see . . .

    Comment


    • Originally posted by El Toro View Post

      No, you are absolutely right, the coronavirus test in Australia included the standard test panel for other respiratory diseases. If this is not the standard everywhere, that's a disappointment.

      My point, which I may not have been clear about, was that any supposedly suppressed virus that "has died out" bounces back quickly if you stop trying to control it. It doesn't matter if it's rhinovirus, flu, RSV or SARS-CoV-2, it will just keep doing it's thing.

      And, yes, Australia does have a good healthcare system - the USA has quality service for the top few income quintiles but no actual system as such.

      But don't worry USAnians, a certain class of politicians in Australia is slowly whiteanting this national advantage in order to replicate the USA in order to guarantee some lazy retirement income as a "consultant" or "board memeber" to the health insurance industry.
      That is awesome that they are testing for everything at once. Among other things, we need good data on how often people are having other viruses at the same time as COVID-19. I do not believe that is the norm here, especially for people with no symptoms or mild symptoms.

      For example, if we found that people who have COVID and Rhinovirus at the same time have significantly worse outcomes... well I'm not sure what else could really be done, but it could spur increased interest in a rhinovirus vaccine or something.




      Comment


      • Originally posted by Atticus View Post
        It will be verrrry interesting to see how we handle the RNC in August. It flies in the face of everything the state has been telling us, even as DeSantis is trying to 'open up' the state in the midst of the current worst numbers we have seen.
        Tulsa yesterday was a preview . . . we'll see . . .
        Isn't AAU hosting their JO Champs in Florida in August as well?

        Comment


        • Brazil June 21

          Daily new cases 16,851
          Total Cases 1,086,990

          Daily new deaths 601
          Total deaths 50,659
          Sunlight is said to be the best of disinfectants

          Comment


          • USA ex-NY

            Daily average new cases for
            Week ending
            4/05 19422
            4/12 22409
            4/19 21219
            4/26 24416
            5/03 24511
            5/10 22611
            5/17 20846
            5/24 21104
            5/31 20322
            6/07 20928
            6/14 21305
            6/21 26805

            How can anyone look at those numbers and not be pissed that the U.S. population is so self-absorbed and so selfish that the inconvenience of staying home is more important than the health of their fellow citizens?
            Last edited by Master403; 06-22-2020, 09:08 PM. Reason: Contrary to the Beatles, there are not 8 Days a Week
            Sunlight is said to be the best of disinfectants

            Comment


            • Sadly the US has given up on controlling it....

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              • Originally posted by Conor Dary View Post
                Sadly the US has given up on controlling it....
                Not all of the US.

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                • I agree....Oregon certainly hasn't but many have...

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                  • Originally posted by polevaultpower View Post

                    Isn't AAU hosting their JO Champs in Florida in August as well?
                    July 25 to Aug 8th in and around the Melbourne area. Moved from Virginia.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Master403 View Post
                      USA ex-NY

                      Daily average new cases for
                      Week ending
                      4/05 22650
                      4/12 25359
                      4/19 24548
                      4/26 27161
                      5/03 27545
                      5/10 24967
                      5/17 23886
                      5/24 23747
                      5/31 23356
                      6/07 23496
                      6/14 24170
                      6/21 26805

                      How can anyone look at those numbers and not be pissed that the U.S. population is so self-absorbed and so selfish that the inconvenience of staying home is more important than the health of their fellow citizens?
                      This actually understates it; if you look at the daily numbers and compare them to the week before the typical difference is about 6000, which means that it if it keeps increasing like that we are going to see new cases of 40,000 on some days and soon will have weekly averages at that level. I think that we are already seeing some pull back on opening aspects, with bars being more limited (that is easier to enforce because the threat of losing a liqueur license is very real and costly). If we do see even another ten days of these kinds of increases, concentrated on the states that are increasing rapidly now the numbers will get harder and harder to ignore and the one-time maneuvers that were used to justify reopening will not help at all. In Florida the 'big three' counties (Miami-Dave, Broward, Palm Beach had accounted for more than half of cases, but now the cases outside those top three were higher yesterday than the record total for a day for the state. That means that back in early June they had maybe 500 cases a day but have now had 2500 in a day. Duval County is up 16% in two days, and one of them is a Sunday...

                      If the NFL season is curtailed and college football is suspended as well as Baseball, that will get a lot of attention, just like it did in later March. Clemson had 30 players test positive, other teams have that many in quarantine (only a subset are positive). The universities are going to be in trouble if they cannot control that spread as it will affect the universities schedule. If I were a university administration, I would ban all fraternity open functions and ban those that violate the order. They cannot jeopardize their possible existence because some kids do not think it is real or do not care about the problems that they inflict.

                      At this point, people seem to be lulled in to thinking things are getting better because the fatalities are still declining. However, fatalities lag identified cases by quite a bit and identified cases lag actual cases as well. Already, the hospitalizations are increasing and in some states they are threatening to hit capacity locally in rural locations that had felt insulated. But the current surge in cases is not being mainly driven by the NYC-type explosions but but much more widespread increases across many more counties. Once it starts to hit a number of people in a county it starts to hit all of the nursing homes and similar entities and then the fatalities will start to increase again.

                      Dane County (Madison, WI) had been somewhat of a haven with a lot of testing an a handful of cases per day with positive tests as low as 1%. But we are now in the 20-30/day level and testing is not increasing over that last several weeks (still averaging 1000/day though). My wife will likely retire in two months if she has to teach (at UW-Madison) in person starting September 1.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by 26mi235 View Post
                        This actually understates it; if you look at the daily numbers and compare them to the week before the typical difference is about 6000, which means that it if it keeps increasing like that we are going to see new cases of 40,000 on some days and soon will have weekly averages at that level. ...
                        I agree with all of what you wrote, except I don't understand the first sentence. What I posted are the average daily new cases for each week for 49 states. For four weeks we were 23K range, then a week ago about 700 more cases per day (5000 for the week), and for the week ending yesterday up another 2600+ per day (18K for the week). I think we agree on the numbers, so I wouldn't describe them as understating anything. Daily new cases continue to increase, apparently accelerating upward. The numbers are awful enough (in my case, county, state, and national) without speculating how much worse they will get.

                        My larger point is that I have respect for people who are guided by what is right or wrong, not what is legal or illegal. I have lost a lot of respect for the general population that seems to be guided by government edict rather than what they know they should be doing: staying home, wearing a mask when out for necessities, and avoiding crowds.

                        Sunlight is said to be the best of disinfectants

                        Comment


                        • meanwhile, worldwide.....

                          WHO says Sunday's coronavirus cases the highest yet in a single day


                          https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-he...-idUKKBN23T2DA

                          Comment


                          • My parents (in Seattle) are both having possible COVID symptoms. I convinced my dad to get tested, soonest he could get in is tomorrow. My mom wants to wait and see his result, but given the high false negative rate, it really makes much more sense for them both to do it at once :/

                            We just got our second case on my little island. It is a close friend's teenage son. Not obvious where he got it. He works at a local shop, but masks have been required for some time now. He also had a trip to the orthodontist, but the staff are all basically wearing space suits, so the risk is relatively low there too. He had mild cold symptoms for a few days, no cough or fever, but they decided to get him tested out of an abundance of caution. Everyone was really shocked it came back positive. His parents are getting tested today. They have not had any symptoms yet, and I am really hoping they do not get it!

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                            • That's concerning to hear....

                              Meanwhile...

                              A reproduction rate exceeding one means the epidemic is expanding - each infected person is passing the disease to more than one other person two months ago, only 6 states were at R>1 today, 25 states are at R>1

                              https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnJHarw...61777911463936

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Conor Dary View Post
                                That's concerning to hear....

                                Meanwhile...

                                A reproduction rate exceeding one means the epidemic is expanding - each infected person is passing the disease to more than one other person two months ago, only 6 states were at R>1 today, 25 states are at R>1

                                https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnJHarw...61777911463936
                                Not sure how much weight to put on this estimate. The developers of rt.live are the two founders of instagram, and they had a major revision to their model June 19.
                                Sunlight is said to be the best of disinfectants

                                Comment

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