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the no-nonsense, nothing-but-the-facts-m'am C19 thread

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  • Originally posted by Halfmiler2 View Post

    The Sunday (6/28/20) early afternoon numbers:

    Workdwide: 10,012K (+2%) cases & 499K (+1) deaths
    The USA : 2,559K (+2%) cases & 125K (+0%) deaths
    New York: 393K (+0%) cases & 31,347 (+0%) deaths
    NYC Only: 211K (+0%) cases & 22,421 (+0%) deaths
    New Jersey: 171K (+0%)cases & 14,975(+0%) deaths
    Bergen Co.: 19,354(+0%)cases & 1,983 (+0%) deaths

    No weekend numbers for NYC yet.
    NY had 616 new cases but only 5 new deaths.
    NJ had 364 new cases and 30 new deaths.
    Bergen had 79 new cases but no new deaths.
    The USA had 571 new deaths.
    The Monday (6/29/20) early afternoon numbers:

    Worldwide: 10,196K (2%) & 500K (+0%) deaths
    The USA : 2,583K (1%) & 126K (+0%) deaths
    New York: 393K (+0%) & 31,354 (+0%) deaths
    NYC Only: 211K (+0%) & 22,421 (+0%) deaths
    New Jersey: 171K(+0%) & 14,992(+0%) deaths
    Bergen Co.: 19,375(+0%) & 1,983 (+0%) deaths

    No weekend numbers for NYC yet.
    NY had 391 new cases and only 7 new deaths.
    NJ had 156 new cases and only 18 new deaths.
    Despite the spike in cases, USA had only 178 new deaths.
    Others cases: CA: 211K, TX: 149K, FL: 146K, IL: 141K.

    Of course, Monday numbers are sometimes a bit low because weekend numbers get reported late. Tuesday is usually higher.

    NJ positive rate is down to 1.9%. COVID hospitalizations dropped under 1K to 978 down from over 8K at peak.
    NY is also under 1K hospitalizations at 853.

    The big news in NJ is that the Governor postponed indoor dining which was to start on Thursday. He did not like what he saw in other states. Indoor malls (but not food courts) opened today. Still no movie theater opening.
    Last edited by Halfmiler2; 06-30-2020, 06:44 PM.


    • Originally posted by bhall View Post

      the reference labs are experiencing an overwhelming request for testing resulting in a production backlog.

      7+ days.
      I was tested on 6/18 and was told by CVS (in SoCal) that results would be in 2-4 days. After six days I sent an e-mail that resulted in an auto-reply telling me that due to backlogs it could be 7-10 "Business Days." Results arrived on 8th calendar day.

      Agree that it is useless as a mitigation strategy. Family was grateful for the result anyway.


      • The UW lab in WA is getting results out within 24-48 hours, they are able to process over 6,000 samples per day.


        • Meanwhile....

          "You look at states like FL, TX, CA, GA, SC--the cases are accelerating pretty quickly," says @ScottGottliebMD
          . "By the time we get to the end of this year probably close to half the population will have coronavirus and that's if we just stay at our current rate."


          • The best way to save the economy is to get the virus under control.

            Vietnam’s Economy Unexpectedly Expands Amid Virus Outbreak

            Vietnam’s economy unexpectedly grew in the second quarter, though at the slowest pace in at least a decade, as exports slumped because of the coronavirus pandemic.



            • Here is my latest tally (although today's data might be updated a little more) I has the Date, the Day of Week, and then the average of the latest seven days followed by the change in the average from the week before. The average was lowest on June 10th and the week-to-week change of -2,366. From that point through to today has seen an increase every day with the net difference almost 15,000 (14,939).
              Date Day 7-Day Average Change From week Before
              1-Jun Mon 22,871 -376
              2-Jun Tue 23,457 540
              3-Jun Wed 23,398 644
              4-Jun Thu 23,323 1,338
              5-Jun Fri 22,827 622
              6-Jun Sat 22,619 193
              7-Jun Sun 22,268 -265
              8-Jun Mon 21,681 -1,190
              9-Jun Tue 21,135 -2,322
              10-Jun Wed 21,031 -2,366
              11-Jun Thu 21,036 -2,287
              12-Jun Fri 21,600 -1,227
              13-Jun Sat 21,954 -665
              14-Jun Sun 22,111 -157
              15-Jun Mon 22,345 664
              16-Jun Tue 23,264 2,130
              17-Jun Wed 24,032 3,001
              18-Jun Thu 24,850 3,814
              19-Jun Fri 25,753 4,153
              20-Jun Sat 26,908 4,953
              21-Jun Sun 27,775 5,664
              22-Jun Mon 29,321 6,976
              23-Jun Tue 30,824 7,560
              24-Jun Wed 32,825 8,793
              25-Jun Thu 34,566 9,716
              26-Jun Fri 36,538 10,785
              27-Jun Sat 37,994 11,086
              28-Jun Sun 40,060 12,285
              29-Jun Mon 41,893 12,573


              • As far as projections go, the cases are a function of behavior and rules. Already bars can no longer serve on the premises (in seven counties in southern California, Miami area, ... Texas I think). The numbers are going to be bigger and eventually the resistance to wearing masks will lessen. Do you want the economy to go forward or do you want to not wear a mask and drink in bars with 50 casual acquaintances in five different bars. Of course, it takes a while for the numbers to respond because they are lagged at several points [infection to symptoms and/or test to getting test results back (see above) to reporting the test results to the county/state health dept to publishing the data] It looks like this might be a lag of up to two weeks in some cases, although contact tracing with test follow (which is probably processed quickly) to recognition of the test being much quicker in some cases.

                I was surprised that the 'weekend effect' didn't result in a lower total (today is already at 44,450) then we are seeing. So, by mid-week we will likely have our first 50,000+ day unless that data are not getting process quickly enough. It could be that just the southern tier itself could hit 50,000 by mid-July. The weekly changes were strongly correlated in the first few weeks when they became dominated by the NYC area and Northeast in general. Then then went up and down as some places were declining (NY while other individual states were going up. It is only over the last three week has there a strong correlation across states. This will make it a bit harder for other areas to assist because the population base of the surge is much larger than before.


                • Meanwhile...I had a slight I had a test today. Came back negative.


                  • Originally posted by Conor Dary View Post
                    Meanwhile...I had a slight I had a test today. Came back negative.
                    Excellent! Glad to hear all's good . . .


                    • Took awhile to arrange today...but other than a bit of discomfort...wasn't bad...and only took 15 minutes to get a result!


                      • L.A. County is ramping up to be a real problem, with a positive rate nearing 9%.


                        Riverside County also maxing out ICU beds.


                        • BTW, the trend from the table above had the weekly average hitting 50,000+ on the Fourth of July...


                          • Brazil June 29

                            Daily new cases 25,234
                            Total Cases 1,370,488

                            Daily new deaths 727
                            Total deaths 58,385
                            Sunlight is said to be the best of disinfectants


                            • Goldman Sachs says a national mask mandate could slash infections and save economy from a 5% hit
                              • Jan Hatzius, Goldman’s chief economist, said his team investigated the link between face masks and Covid-19 health and economic outcomes.
                              • Goldman says a national mask mandate could raise the percentage of people who wear masks by 15 percentage points and cut the daily growth rate of cases by 1.0 percentage point to 0.6%.
                              • Hatzius then translated those results into GDP impact and found that a mask mandate could substitute for lockdowns that would subtract nearly 5% from growth.


                              • Originally posted by Conor Dary View Post
                                Took awhile to arrange today...but other than a bit of discomfort...wasn't bad...and only took 15 minutes to get a result!
                                Same day - call doc - get tested - get results: sweet! At least around here the system is working for now. That reduces a lot of anxiety and prevents needless 14-day isolation lockdowns.