the no-nonsense, nothing-but-the-facts-m'am C19 thread

[bambam1729]

A front-page article in the Wall Street Journal today indicates that the COVID death toll in Shanghai far exceeds the 36 reported by the government - which are the first COVID deaths reported in China in two years. China had not even reported any COVID cases in Shanghai in 2021.

The article says based on eye witness reports there have been more deaths in a single nursing home than reported for the entire city.

I'm shocked. Shocked!

[Halfmiler2]

A front-page article in the Wall Street Journal today indicates that the COVID death toll in Shanghai far exceeds the 36 reported by the government - which are the first COVID deaths reported in China in two years. China had not even reported any COVID cases in Shanghai in 2021.

The article says based on eye witness reports there have been more deaths in a single nursing home than reported for the entire city.

[Halfmiler2]

Given that it is from the WHO, I would guess they do not dare attribute much of the nine million gap to China. Which makes me think that the actual number maybe even higher than 15 million.

[jeremyp]

An ambitious effort by the World Health Organization to calculate the global death toll from the coronavirus pandemic has found that vastly more people died than previously believed — a total of about 15 million by the end of 2021, more than double the official total of six million reported by countries individually.

But the release of the staggering estimate — the result of more than a year of research and analysis by experts around the world and the most comprehensive look at the lethality of the pandemic to date — has been delayed for months because of objections from India, which disputes the calculation of how many of its citizens died and has tried to keep it from becoming public.

More than a third of the additional nine million deaths are estimated to have occurred in India, where the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has stood by its own count of about 520,000.

The numbers represent what statisticians and researchers call “excess mortality” — the difference between all deaths that occurred and those that would have been expected to occur under normal circumstances.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/16/h...who-india.html

[jeremyp]

JOHANNESBURG —
The World Health Organization says up to 65% of people in Africa have been infected with the coronavirus and estimated that the number of actual cases may have been nearly 100 times more than those reported.

In a new analysis released Thursday, the U.N. health agency reviewed 151 studies of the virus in Africa based on blood samples taken from people on the continent between January 2020 and December 2021. WHO said that by last September, about 65% of people tested had some exposure, translating into about 800 million infections. In contrast, only about 8 million cases had been officially reported to WHO during that time period.

“This undercounting is occurring worldwide and it’s no surprise that the numbers are particularly large in Africa, where there are so many cases with no symptoms,” WHO’s Africa Director Matshidiso Moeti said in a statement. WHO’s analysis found that two-thirds of those infected showed no symptoms of COVID-19, a higher percentage than other world regions.

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2022-04-09/up-to-65-of-africans-have-had-covid-far-more-than-thought

Average age of Africans is 19. Might explain some of this.

[18.99s]

And in case anyone......S.Korea has averaged 281 deaths a day since March 1. The country that seemed to have it best under control of all the larger countries.

They had it under control for a long time. But Omicron changed that.

SK-covidchart.png

[jeremyp]

In case anyone is still interested, the seven-day average of global deaths (3423) is now at the lowest level since March 2020.

And in case anyone......S.Korea has averaged 281 deaths a day since March 1. That would equate to us having 1800 a day. The country that seemed to have it best under control of all the larger countries. High vaccination rates and high testing.

[TN1965]

In case anyone is still interested, the seven-day average of global deaths (3423) is now at the lowest level since March 2020.

[gh]

Britain's health service expands list of COVID symptoms:

https://www.iflscience.com/health-and-medicine/uk-health-system-updates-list-of-covid-symptoms/

[Halfmiler2]

Weekly Update:
The Presidents Day (2/21/22) afternoon numbers:

Cumulative Numbers:
Globally: 421.609 million cases & 5,869K deaths
The USA: 78.424 million cases & 938K deaths
NY State: 4.888 million cases & 54,492 deaths
NJ State: 1.865 million cases & 29,762 deaths
Bergen Co: 188K cases & 3,083 deaths

NJ & NY Detail:
The RT for NJ edged up to 0.63.
NJ has 3.32% & NY had 2.2% positivity rates.
NJ has 1,032 & NY had 2,522 hospitalizations
NJ had 32,711 & NY had 66,349 deaths including probables.

7-Day Daily Averages:
Globally: 1.893 million cases & 10.1K deaths
The USA: 110K cases & 1.4K deaths
NY State: 3,043 cases & 47 deaths
NJ State; 1,537 cases & 45 deaths
Bergen Co: 150 cases & 5 deaths

Monthly Update:
The Friday (4/1/22) afternoon numbers:

Cumulative Numbers:
Global: 485.058 million cases & 6.129 million deaths
USA: 80.019 million cases & 979.3K deaths
NY State: 4.976 million cases & 55,140 deaths
NJ State: 1.900 million cases & 30,245 deaths
Bergen Co: 193.1K cases & 3,102 deaths

Global numbers exclude China which has only reported four deaths in two years. NJ & NY numbers are confirmed numbers only and exclude probables.

NJ & NJ Details:

The Rt for NJ increased to 1.03.
NJ has 5.69% & NY has 2.7% positivity rates
NJ has 336 & NY had 833 hospitalizations.
NJ has 7.7 million first shots, 6.8 million total vases, and 3.2 million boosters. NY has 15.9 total bases.

31-day Daily Averages:
Global: 2 million cases & 3K deaths
The USA: 35K cases & 1K deaths
NY State: 2.25K cases & 13.3 deaths
NJ State: 840 cases & 9.3 deaths
Bergen Co: 165 cases & 0.6 deaths

[jeremyp]

The 7-day average of cases in the US is below 25K/day and deaths below 600/day, according to Worldometers. That's the first time those numbers have been that low since July of 2021.

Still need to keep an eye on countries surging again. It does seem to be in endemic phase. Like the flu.

[18.99s]

The 7-day average of cases in the US is below 25K/day and deaths below 600/day, according to Worldometers. That's the first time those numbers have been that low since July of 2021.

[18.99s]

I'm not sure the counts will ever be accurate.

They won't ever be accurate. But how inaccurate are the US death numbers? 25% too low? 25% too high? 50% too high? 100% too high? 1000% too high? The excess deaths numbers for 2020 and 2021 indicate the reported numbers are much more likely to be within +/- 25% of reality, than 50% or 100% or more from it.

[scottmitchell74]

For the US, actual cases are substantially higher than the official counts, but not so much with the deaths. Deaths are usually preceded by a hospital stay, where nearly all the patients would be tested. The big undercounting is with the moderate and mild cases that didn't put people in the hospital.

I'm not sure the counts will ever be accurate. If people are willing to say "men can get pregnant" for political gain, who can to say "miscounting" or assigning or overstating cause of death for political gain isn't a thing? I've become very, very skeptical of this whole thing. Nothing I've seen from the beginning gives me any reason to trust anything about this subject.

[18.99s]

We are approaching, and some sites say we have passed, the 1 million death mark in the U.S. The true count is considerably higher. Somber statistic.

For the US, actual cases are substantially higher than the official counts, but not so much with the deaths. Deaths are usually preceded by a hospital stay, where nearly all the patients would be tested. The big undercounting is with the moderate and mild cases that didn't put people in the hospital.