the no-nonsense, nothing-but-the-facts-m'am C19 thread

[Halfmiler2]

The Giving Tuesday (12/1/20) early afternoon numbers:

Globally: 63,470K cases & 1,470K deaths
The USA: 13,694 cases & 271K deaths
NY State: 656K cases & 34,163 deaths
NYC only: 317K cases & 24,274 deaths
NJ State: 342K cases & 17,083 deaths
Bergen: 35,327 cases & 2,139 deaths

NY, NJ, NYC, & Bergen County deaths include confirmed & probable deaths.

NJ: 4,661 new cases, 90 new confirmed deaths
NY: 7,285 new cases
NJ had 3,129 hospitalizations.
The Rt for NJ fell again to 1.10.

The Wednesday (12/2/20) early afternoon numbers:

Globally: 64,089K cases & 1,482K deaths
The USA: 13,865K cases & 274K deaths
NY State: 660K cases & 34,222 deaths
NYC only: 319K cases & 24,287 deaths
NJ State: 346K cases & 17,145 deaths
Bergen: 35,726 cases & 2,139 deaths

Global numbers exclude China (86K reported cases & 4.6K deaths) which stopped reporting deaths 8 months ago.

NJ: 4,350 new cases, 56 new confirmed deaths
NJ has 3,287 & NY has 3,924 hospitalizations.
NY: 8,973 new cases, 73 new confirmed deaths
The Rt for NJ fell again to 1.08.
The NJ spot positivity test rate rose to 13.68%.

[Trickstat]

UK becomes first country to approve Pfizer vaccine:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55145696

[Halfmiler2]

Cyber Monday (11/30/20) early afternoon numbers:

Globally: 62,702K cases & 1,455K deaths
The USA: 13,507K cases & 271K deaths
NY State: 648K cases & 34,101 deaths
NYC only: 314K cases & 24,268 deaths
NJ State: 337K cases & 16,993 deaths
Bergen: 34,871 cases & 2,124 deaths

Global numbers exclude China.

NJ: 3,199 new cases, 15 new confirmed deaths
NJ has 2,961 & NY has 3,532 hospitalizations.
NY: 6,819 new cases, 57 new confirmed deaths
The Rt for NJ is 1.11- lowest since 9/19/20.
The NJ spot positivity test rate is 11.34%.

The Giving Tuesday (12/1/20) early afternoon numbers:

Globally: 63,470K cases & 1,470K deaths
The USA: 13,694 cases & 271K deaths
NY State: 656K cases & 34,163 deaths
NYC only: 317K cases & 24,274 deaths
NJ State: 342K cases & 17,083 deaths
Bergen: 35,327 cases & 2,139 deaths

NY, NJ, NYC, & Bergen County deaths include confirmed & probable deaths.

NJ: 4,661 new cases, 90 new confirmed deaths
NY: 7,285 new cases
NJ had 3,129 hospitalizations.
The Rt for NJ fell again to 1.10.

[26mi235]

However, there is this from one of the most active people around (Topol)

An excellent essay by @EricTopol and Dennis Burton on vaccine-induced vs. naturally acquired immunity, and how the former can provide superior protection against #SARS_CoV_2

https://mobile.twitter.com/VirusesIm...45089243373569

[26mi235]

meanwhile, at the pharmacy ("severe" being the key word).....

Moderna's Coronavirus Vaccine Candidate 100% Effective at Preventing Severe COVID-19


https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/...ization-of-it/

This statement does not make sense to me since the numbers are not remotely large enough to make such a statement. Since the trial size was about 30,000, half had the vaccine and '95%' effective would mean not many actually got infected since only hundreds would have been expected to get infected and I think well less than a hundred (~20-40??) did; so of 30, we would only expect one to be severe. One less than the expected number is not grounds to draw strong inferences. And, they have no idea what the re-infection rate might be, where re-infection would me a later infection after some waning of the effectiveness. The number of re-infections is small, but is already two orders of magnitude larger than it was in August. In fact, this is a concern, since the bigger the immune response when you get it (or a vaccine) the more antibodies etc.
In addition, I think that it is still unknown how effective the vaccine is against infecting others. For example, you can still harbor the virus in the nose etc., since it protects your internal system but not the nose area, etc., as I understand it. So you might still need a mask to protect others if you have this type of infection and to keep you from getting that type of infection you should still wear a mask – see Fauci’s comments.

[Halfmiler2]

Advent Sunday (11/29/20) early afternoon numbers:

Globally: 62,429K cases & 1,452K deaths
The USA: 13,365K cases & 270K deaths
NY State: 641K cases & 34,049 deaths
NYC only: 312K cases & 24,260 deaths
NJ States: 334K cases & 16,978 deaths
Bergen: 34,583 cases & 2,122 deaths

NY, NJ, NYC, and Bergen deaths include confirmed and probable.

NJ: 3,851 new cases, 13 new confirmed deaths
NY: 6,723 new cases, 55 new confirmed deaths
NJ has 2,902 & NY has 3,372 hospitalizations.
The Rt for NJ fell again to 1.14.

Cyber Monday (11/30/20) early afternoon numbers:

Globally: 62,702K cases & 1,455K deaths
The USA: 13,507K cases & 271K deaths
NY State: 648K cases & 34,101 deaths
NYC only: 314K cases & 24,268 deaths
NJ State: 337K cases & 16,993 deaths
Bergen: 34,871 cases & 2,124 deaths

Global numbers exclude China.

NJ: 3,199 new cases, 15 new confirmed deaths
NJ has 2,961 & NY has 3,532 hospitalizations.
NY: 6,819 new cases, 57 new confirmed deaths
The Rt for NJ is 1.11- lowest since 9/19/20.
The NJ spot positivity test rate is 11.34%.

[gh]

meanwhile, at the pharmacy ("severe" being the key word).....

Moderna's Coronavirus Vaccine Candidate 100% Effective at Preventing Severe COVID-19


https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/...ization-of-it/

[Halfmiler2]

Small Biz Saturday (11/28/20) early PM numbers:

Globally: 61,861K cases & 1,443K deaths
The USA: 13,217K cases & 268K deaths
NY State: 634K cases & 34,004 deaths
NYC only: 310K cases & 24,255 deaths
NJ State: 330K cases & 16,965 deaths
Bergen: 34,083 cases & 2,121 deaths

Global numbers exclude China which has only reported 86K cases & 4.6K deaths - virtually none in 8 months

NJ: 3,924 new cases & 24 new confirmed deaths
NY: 6,063 new cases & 44 new confirmed deaths
NJ has 2,830 & NY 3,287 hospitalizations.
The Rt for NJ fell again to 1.16.
Rt peaked at 1.43 on 11/18/20 and fallen since.
Bergen probable deaths fell slightly.

Advent Sunday (11/29/20) early afternoon numbers:

Globally: 62,429K cases & 1,452K deaths
The USA: 13,365K cases & 270K deaths
NY State: 641K cases & 34,049 deaths
NYC only: 312K cases & 24,260 deaths
NJ States: 334K cases & 16,978 deaths
Bergen: 34,583 cases & 2,122 deaths

NY, NJ, NYC, and Bergen deaths include confirmed and probable.

NJ: 3,851 new cases, 13 new confirmed deaths
NY: 6,723 new cases, 55 new confirmed deaths
NJ has 2,902 & NY has 3,372 hospitalizations.
The Rt for NJ fell again to 1.14.

[Halfmiler2]

The Black Friday (11/27/20) early afternoon numbers:

Globally: 61,068K cases & 1,431K deaths
The USA: 13,016K cases & 267K deaths
NY State: 628K cases & 33,959 deaths
NYC only: 305K cases & 24,241 deaths
NJ State: 326K cases & 16,942 deaths
Bergen: 33,875 cases & 2,122 deaths

NY, NJ, NYC, Bergen County deaths include confirmed and probable.

NJ: 4,100 new cases, 19 new confirmed deaths
NY: 8,176 new cases, 39 new confirmed deaths
NJ has 2,796 & NY has 3,103 hospitalizations.
The Rt for NJ fell again to 1.18.

Small Biz Saturday (11/28/20) early PM numbers:

Globally: 61,861K cases & 1,443K deaths
The USA: 13,217K cases & 268K deaths
NY State: 634K cases & 34,004 deaths
NYC only: 310K cases & 24,255 deaths
NJ State: 330K cases & 16,965 deaths
Bergen: 34,083 cases & 2,121 deaths

Global numbers exclude China which has only reported 86K cases & 4.6K deaths - virtually none in 8 months

NJ: 3,924 new cases & 24 new confirmed deaths
NY: 6,063 new cases & 44 new confirmed deaths
NJ has 2,830 & NY 3,287 hospitalizations.
The Rt for NJ fell again to 1.16.
Rt peaked at 1.43 on 11/18/20 and fallen since.
Bergen probable deaths fell slightly.

[Halfmiler2]

Weekend reporting does sometimes lag. As a result, Sunday and Monday numbers are sometimes lower and Tuesday numbers are sometimes higher.

[jeremyp]

According to Worlometer, 19 states did not report a single case yesterday. I am not sure what the reporting will be like today. (20 states, according to CNN. I guess they have different cut-off times.)

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/27/healt...day/index.html

Stats come in differently from different sources. Weekends it's slow time. Some countries report no change for days then throw it all in. Kansas and Missouri seems to do this as well. Spain does it all the time. Best gauge is weekly averages.

[TN1965]

So here is something to be thankful for, however minor it may be. Per ourworldindata/coronavirus yesterday was the first day in about 60 days that the # of COVID positives went down in the USA. I know, it may be related to the holiday, but still nice to not see the chart not going up every day as has been the usual since September. # of deaths also went down yesterday - that has happened about 3 times in the past 2 months but I will still say its a good thing, although the #s are still very high for both cases and deaths.

According to Worlometer, 19 states did not report a single case yesterday. I am not sure what the reporting will be like today. (20 states, according to CNN. I guess they have different cut-off times.)

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/27/healt...day/index.html

[Halfmiler2]

The Thanksgiving (11/26/20) early afternoon numbers:

Globally: 60,492K cases & 1,420K deaths
The USA: 12,906K cases & 266K deaths
NY State: 620K cases & 33,890 deaths
NYC only: 303K cases & 24,232 deaths
NJ State: 322K cases & 16,925 deaths
Bergen: 33,328 cases & 2,119 deaths

NJ: 4,565 new cases, 39 new confirmed deaths
NY: 6,933 new cases, 67 new confirmed deaths
The Rt for NJ fell to 1.21.
NJ has 2,831 & NY has 3,056 hospitalizations.
The NJ spot positivity test rate is 10.54%.

The Black Friday (11/27/20) early afternoon numbers:

Globally: 61,068K cases & 1,431K deaths
The USA: 13,016K cases & 267K deaths
NY State: 628K cases & 33,959 deaths
NYC only: 305K cases & 24,241 deaths
NJ State: 326K cases & 16,942 deaths
Bergen: 33,875 cases & 2,122 deaths

NY, NJ, NYC, Bergen County deaths include confirmed and probable.

NJ: 4,100 new cases, 19 new confirmed deaths
NY: 8,176 new cases, 39 new confirmed deaths
NJ has 2,796 & NY has 3,103 hospitalizations.
The Rt for NJ fell again to 1.18.

[bambam1729]

So here is something to be thankful for, however minor it may be. Per ourworldindata/coronavirus yesterday was the first day in about 60 days that the # of COVID positives went down in the USA. I know, it may be related to the holiday, but still nice to not see the chart not going up every day as has been the usual since September. # of deaths also went down yesterday - that has happened about 3 times in the past 2 months but I will still say its a good thing, although the #s are still very high for both cases and deaths.

[bambam1729]

Opinion piece in the BMJ primarily about weaknesses in the Pfizer and Moderna trial structure and potential problems arising from an apparent high level of side effects. It also puts the boot into
the Oxford/AstraZeneca trial but further discussion on that is via links in the article.


https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2020/11/26...the-full-data/

How can three major companies design trials with apparently significant weaknesses when so much money is being thrown at them and it has never been more important to have solid reliable evidence? Did they all just use a new intern to do the design?

No. As a journal editor there are weaknesses in every paper I read. There are weaknesses in every study done. It is a favorite of negative writers to attack any study they do not agree with, and point out only the negative things about it. You can find a medical article supporting whatever viewpoint you want on a subject - plus or minus. They're out there. All of them have weaknesses, most of them have strengths. There are no perfect studies, no perfect medical articles.

Most of the articles attacking other articles / studies have to do with confirmation bias. If it doesn't agree with your pre-conceived notion it is a bad study/article. I see this all the time. You do it. I do it. The mainstream media does it. Everyone does it. Virtually every letter to the editor I receive can be summarized. "This is a terrible article. I wrote another article on the same topic and they don't agree with me, so this study sucks."