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  • The Open

    Here's a new thread for you eldrick

    Originally posted by eldrick
    i have to paraphrase a guy called jeremy chapman who writes for the paper :

    http://www.racingpost.co.uk/news/splash.sd

    ( hard copy offers a helluva lot more than gee-gees & this guy is the best golf analyzer around )

    "tiger made 8 birdies compared to angel's 13

    this was due to tiger's innacuracy with his approaches, which left him with long, mostly unrealistic birdie putts, whereas angel's birdies were mostly tap-ins

    rather than perceived putting problems, it was tiger's inability to hit close to flags which cost him this major"
    this guy is damn good & i'll post what he says prior to Open

  • #2
    i pop into the bookies every lunchtime after work to read his column in that paper & he is an excellent tipster ( probably the best )

    he did mess up for the USOpen by tipping zack johnson as having the ideal game for the tourney , but he also advised money on furyk

    his main interest is in making money out of 3-balls ( usually you get 8/11, evens & 15/8 as odds in a typical fairly evenly matched 3 ball ) & he tips on whether to go heavy on the favorite or the outsider based on recent form, couse/tourney history etc

    i don't bet on golf, but he gives a great insight into the game

    i can't find any good links to him, just platitudes :

    http://www.highstakes.co.uk/affiliates/ ... 36&a=tipex

    http://john2e.lastminuteliving.com/my_w ... ure_m.html

    when it comes to the Open, i'll post what his views are

    Comment


    • #3
      tiger is drawn with paul lawrie ( defending champ ) & justin rose

      this is about the worst draw he couda got :

      lawrie is playing rubbish & will probably shoot about a 75 if he's lucky & give tiger nothing to feed off

      worse still, rose is just about the most loved british golfer because of his exploits in '98 british open as a 17y ole & contending well in majors this year - he's a player who thrives on crowd inspiration & he'll get it, with big whoops whenever he holes a decent range putt ( tiger will get no more than a polite handclap )

      this is a situation similar to about '02 in british open when tiger got 2 brits again - i think donald & again rose & they played very well in opening 2 rounds urged on by the crowds & tiger finished day 2 a little bit behind them

      he'd have been much better off with a coupla other americans in his group, so he coud "relax" a bit more, but for some reason they keep putting him in with the brits which does seem to unsettle him ( last year was ridiculous - they gave him the shot faldo & tiger struggled for 9 holes with the crowd support for everything faldo holed )

      if tiger finishes day 1 ahead of rose, he will have done remarkably well

      odds on 1st round 3-ball from

      http://www.stanjames.com/betting/index. ... mt=16506.2

      Woods, Tiger 4/6
      Lawrie, Paul 9/2
      Rose, Justin 21/10

      i'm not going to bet on this, but rose at 21/10 is fairly tasty odds

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by eldrick
        tiger is drawn with paul lawrie ( defending champ )
        I assume you mean the defending champ from the last time it was played at Cairnoustie?

        Comment


        • #5
          some paraphasing from chapman's write-up in the bookie paper ( no web link )

          unsurprisingly, even he finds it difficult to tip a winner strongly due to the possible weather, but almost as usefully, spends more time telling us why certain guys won't win :

          - lefty : beaten badly in scottish open when had tourney seemingly won - havret didn't exactly throw a bucket of birdies at him, lefty "winged footed" it - also complaining of twinges in his wrist again - not to be backed

          - ernie : many are tipping the big guy, but he hasn't won in a long time & despite an excellent 65 in last round of above tourney, when he realised he coud win it, immediately bogeyed the 16th to lose it - hasn't had the winning mentality for a while - poor bet

          - cabrera : missed play-off at carnoustie in '99 by 1 shot when he missed a reasonably makeable putt - obviously a threat due to his power, but you don't win back-to-back majors unless your name is tiger or phil

          - euro challenge ? : not in favour this time : harrington has won 2 tourneys at this course in past 3 - 4y, but only 1 round was played at carnoustie every time - it was a pro-am & if the course had to be playable for likes of actors hugh grant & michael douglas, it was no way same beast as they are going to face now - so you can disregard his previous form here as meaning anything

          - rose : did very well in 1st 2 majors this year & gets quick starts, but has never won in america & not won on euro tour for ?5y - currently contends, but doesn't finish-off

          Comment


          • #6
            My dark-horse for the win: Miguel Angel Jimenez

            I like him. He's cool, and said that the Major he'd most to win in the British Open.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by trackworld
              My dark-horse for the win: Miguel Angel Jimenez

              I like him. He's cool, and said that the Major he'd most to win in the British Open.
              trax

              you must have got hold of laro-yel's ganga plantation ! :P ( albeit i didn't think cabrera stood a snowball in hell's chance despite leading at end of 2nd round at oakmont ( & i watch most of the euro tour rubbish every week ) :? )

              i'll post who the racing post guy put down as his favored players in a minute - but if you are close to a tesco/sainsbury's express - pop down there & read the racing post there ( don't buy it - it's not worth paying £1.50 for a 2 page article )

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by eldrick
                Originally posted by trackworld
                My dark-horse for the win: Miguel Angel Jimenez

                I like him. He's cool, and said that the Major he'd most to win in the British Open.
                trax

                you must have got hold of laro-yel's ganga plantation ! :P ( albeit i didn't think cabrera stood a snowball in hell's chance despite leading at end of 2nd round at oakmont ( & i watch most of the euro tour rubbish every week ) :? )

                i'll post who the racing post guy put down as his favored players in a minute - but if you are close to a tesco/sainsbury's express - pop down there & read the racing post there ( don't buy it - it's not worth paying £1.50 for a 2 page article )
                Yeah I watch the Euro Tour too on SkySports, and now we've been re-acquinated with the PGA Tour & Golden League action after subscirbing to Setanta Sports. I just like Jimenez. I wouldn't take my '' Major winner '' predictions seriously at all, they are based my pure fan-dom for a particular golfer and not by the form book at all !

                Would be good to see Tiger win 3-in-a-row, but it would good to see a real good battle in the final group for that win

                Comment


                • #9
                  I also didn't think that Cabrera would win either after the 2nd round and after the 3rd I definitely didn't think he'd win. If Bubba hadn't have totally muffed the chip he had from the greenside rough on one of the holes in the 3rd, he may've won

                  On another note; eldy, bambam, any golf enthusiast, do you guys think that Tiger's '' not coming from behind to win a major '' streak is actually any kind of concern ? I mean, I don't think it means a thing because if Tiger is behind after Round 3 it usually means he is playing not too well, so its not a big deal. When he leads after Round 3 he's done his job nd can just bring it home

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by trackworld
                    On another note; eldy, bambam, any golf enthusiast, do you guys think that Tiger's '' not coming from behind to win a major '' streak is actually any kind of concern ? I mean, I don't think it means a thing because if Tiger is behind after Round 3 it usually means he is playing not too well, so its not a big deal. When he leads after Round 3 he's done his job nd can just bring it home
                    it's not a stat which means anything

                    bam is the expert, but i've watched so much golf in last 10y it's coming out of the a**

                    it's come down to almost a "gut" feeling in the early stages whether he'll win from behind ( when realistic - i.e. a 67 at best will do it ) :

                    this year :

                    Masters : final round : 1st hole : it's a par-4, which he had bogeyed 1 out of 3 in previous 3 rounds ) - they didn't show 1st hole on tv, but said he was smack-plumb in the fairway after the drive, but messed up & got a bogey from there :

                    my gut told me straight away it wasn't going to happen from there

                    USOpen : 3rd round - best ball-striking round off his career ( & nearly in past 20y of the tourney ) & still only a 69, when it shouda been a 66- 67 at worst - my gut got wobbly then, but that skinned shot on 3rd hole of 4th round -> double bogey, killed the gut - it said "NO win" from there

                    i'd have to be honest & say there has no come-from-behind position i can recall where he shouda really won - you get the "gut" feeling whether it's on or not by completion of 1st par-5 on front-9 & i can't remember having that

                    i'll try & recall the times he had a shot later

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by trackworld
                      On another note; eldy, bambam, any golf enthusiast, do you guys think that Tiger's '' not coming from behind to win a major '' streak is actually any kind of concern ? I mean, I don't think it means a thing because if Tiger is behind after Round 3 it usually means he is playing not too well, so its not a big deal. When he leads after Round 3 he's done his job nd can just bring it home
                      I don't think it means anything. Probably just statistical noise.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Here's a great trivia question on The Open. Name the only two golfers born in Dublin to have won The Open? (Hint: don't even consider any obvious ones)

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Gary Player is covered elsewhere.... don't even think of polluting this thread.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by bambam
                            Here's a great trivia question on The Open. Name the only two golfers born in Dublin to have won The Open? (Hint: don't even consider any obvious ones)
                            I am leaving for a fairly long weekend tomorrow and will likely not be back on this board until next Wednesday. So I'll answer this - nobody would get it anyway:

                            Ben Hogan - born in Dublin, Texas
                            Jack Nicklaus - born in Dublin, Ohio

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by bambam
                              Ben Hogan - born in Dublin, Texas
                              Jack Nicklaus - born in Dublin, Ohio
                              Groan :P

                              Comment

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