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Originally posted by Jack Slocombe
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Well like most republicans your not very computer literate if you can't vote more then once. :P :wink: I plan on voting late and often, (I don't get up early for anything).
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ahem, you may want to consider an edit there...........Originally posted by JnathleticsWell ..........your not very ........literate........... if you can't vote more then once. :P :wink: I plan on voting late and often, (I don't get up early for anything).
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Taking timetable into account I believe that Phelps will try the same events as in Melbourne.Originally posted by eldrick
Day I
400 IM (almost a sure gold)
400 Free – is out, not even Phelps can go for gold in a relative weak event after the toughest event in the program.
Day II
200 Free SF– I have no doubt that Phelps will participate
100 back SF – If Phelps will try the 100 back it will be the first of two consecutive three-events days in his program, so the 100 back is out (see also day III)
100*4 Free – Phelps will most probably swim, the American will probably win
Day III
200 Free – Phelps will be out to prove that the event is his regardless of Thorpe. I expect (an amazing) WR
100 Back – Is out
200 Butterfly SF – Phelps “promise” 1:51! So 100 back is out
Day IV
100 Free SF – the 100 free is a possibility but is will require 3 events day. I believe that Phelps will not add this event as it is relatively weak event.
200 Butterfly – If Phelps is healthy this is one of the most sure gold medals in the games
4*200 Free – See 200 Butterfly
Day V
200 back SF – I personally believe that if Phelps will add an event it will be this one. Lochte (WR holder) vs. Peirsol vs. Phelps in the American trials will be something to cherish.
100 Free
200 I.M SF – Phelps can “rest” and qualify
Day VI
200 back – The “killing” day for Phelps if he decided to add the 200 back
200 I.M – the competition (Lochte) is not that far from Phelps, so he needs to be at his best. This is why I believe that the 200 back is also out.
100 Butterfly SF – Phelps need this event to swim the final of the medley
Day VII
100 Butterfly – probably the hardest event on Phelps schedule. Few centimeters separated him and Crocker in Athens and Melbourne
Day VIII
100*4 Medley – the only Phelps event, if the 100/200 back were schedule for this day I believe Phelps would be trying for 9!Comment
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his coach said the 200 back is out for now
i see no problem with 3 finals/day - it's the og - sometimes you get 1 shot at it in life
i'm sure he'll try 100 back as he's 0.03s shy of wr & did no training for it ( 1 very important consideration is that if he wins it, it gets him onto medley relay final team ( displacing peirsol ) & there is less pressure on him to beat crocker in the 100 fly - he may almost be "forced" into swimming it )
as for 400 free - it's the weakest event at the games : he has such a margin in 400 i m, he coud almost "coast" it & have energy left to swim a fast 400 free : perfectly rested i reckon he couda gone 3'42 - 3'43 this year, maybe 3'41 - 3'42 next year ( he's getting better ) : wc won in 3'44 - he can go 3'42 - 3'43 after an "easy" 400 i m win & take the 400 free gold
i agree 100 free is out, as at best, he may get bronze with a swede now under 48 & another coupla guys close to 48-flat - i can see phelps going close to 48-flat, but that won't win ( but then again if he's lead yank in final, he'd again get onto medley relay - a reason to consider it )
i suppose we'll have to wait for the trials...Comment
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re 400 free - the South Korean Park is only 18 and he is bound to improve to 3:43 (at least) until the games.Originally posted by eldrick
re 400 IM - Lochte is already sub 4:10 and improving all the time. Cseh can get it right at the Olympics. Phelps will need to swim sub 4:08 in order to win gold. Hence, not much rest here and thus I think that the 400 free is out. Instead I believe he will smash the WR (maybe even sub 4:05).
re 3 events - I think that Phelps swan few times 3 events per day in the same meet but never in a major championship. Having two consecutive days of three events each, sound too much for me even for the unbelievable Phelps.
Since I can't see him omitting the 200 free or the 200 butterfly I think he will be forced to skip the 100 back (and have some motivation for the 2012 games)Comment
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the korean swam the race of his life & took something like 2s+ off his pb
sure he's likely to improve but after such a big improvement already, it's no guarantee ( looking at him in that race, he won by determination more than raw talent - physically he doesn't look much ), whereas phelps was already in likely 3'42 - 3'43 shape then ( few if anyone doubted after the meet that if he'd swum it then, he'd have won ) - his swim at nationals later showed he's getting even better
fully rested i'd give him 2s over the korean - with a "controlled" i m before, he can still have something in hand
as for 400 i m - he's got 3s+ already on lochte ( his whipping boy ) & big-mouth cseh built himself up as a big threat in wc - phelps crushed him
these 2 boys have NO chance against phelps
he can coast to a 4'08-low, win & take little out of him for the 400 free to handle the korean
as for 3 finals/day - he may have not done it in a global before, but this is his chance of immortality - he won't get it unless he tries
100 back has got to be a certainty - not just because the win guarantees him another gold in the medley, but if he can swim within 0.03s of peirsol's wr ( who has been progressive wr holder for 3y & looks to me to have virtually reached his peak ) off no specific training, he can smash it smitheerens down into mid-52s with prep
you can't throw away a better than 50/50 chance of a goldComment
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their is a reason now to now ascribe legendary/superhuman status to phelps ( & it wasn't even after 6 golds in athens ) & why 3 final wins/day are very possible ( apart from 100 free )
simply 1 swim put him up there with hearns/tiger/pistol/secretariat :
200 free wc
it needs to be watched with it's original klingon ( sorry, oz ) dialect to get the full impact
( sadly, even, you-know-where has chopped it down
if anyone coud post latter part of an url for greatest swim in history ? )
p s
the korean guy who won the 400, was in lane 2...Comment
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I was in the last WCH in Melbourne Phelps WR got a bit of mix reaction from the crowd (the Aussie crowd was much more nationalist then I thought they will be). However, I watched the race on the news in the next morning and the commentator was really excited when Phelps broke the record.Originally posted by eldrick
I do not argue that Phelps can break the WR in the 100 back. I believe, however, that you way underestimate the effect of the three events per day. Especially when he still needs to swim few races after the two days six events that you are planning for him.Comment
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you clearly haven't learnt lesson of 200 free :
"legend"
( & 3 finals wins/day with a 53.01 "no train" included isn't possible ?!
you have no clue what 1'42+ signifies to an "all-rounder" )
you sound slightly oz from your prognostications, don't waste my time if you are, phelps has killed you in all his eventsComment
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You still don't understand the difference between swimming great in one event and the fatigue of swimming 6 events in 2 days.Originally posted by eldrick
As for my lessons - I thought that Phelps is the greatest swimmer of all time before and after Melbourne.
Finally I'm not Australian but you are a sad person if you answer posts according to nationalityComment
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you seem to have no understanding of when an athlete moves from "impossibility" to "not impossibility" :
the concept of a seminal moment which re-defines a sport
the 200 free did it
he's now shown he's built up his endurance threshold to such a level where he can swim faster than current next best swimmer in the world in a chosen event of his & still find it takes little out of him
3 finals/day are no longer likely to be a problemComment
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you can see the greatest swim in men's history ( probably ), it seems to be NBC, so looks no stealing :
http://video.sionnbcsports.com/player/?id=85986
( the man who shook phelps hand at the end was hoogie :
- wr holder over premier distance of 100m & 2x og champ
- ex-wr holder over 200m
- og champ over 200m in '00
- defeated thorpe in '00 to the gold & came out with the wr
- he is a quiet, unexpressive man :
i've never seen that look on his face before...)Comment
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Question:Originally posted by eldrick
suppose that JW run 1:41.10 and a year later Jo Smith run 1:39.99 which run is better?
JW - because he is primarily a 400 runner or Smith's one because of the time.Comment
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