End of World Nigh ?

[ponytayne]

Re: End of World Nigh ?

The experiment is not without its detractors.

Websites on the Internet, itself created at CERN in the early 1990s as a means of passing particle research results to scientists around the globe, have been inundated with claims that the LHC will create black holes sucking in the planet.

The "detractors" are out to lunch. This kind of disaster scenario is predicated on the synchrony of multiple, improbable events, including:

1. The mini-black holes are actually created (requires certainly theories to be correct, and there's no guarantee that they are)

2. If created, the mini-black holes must be stable to be a concern. Stephen Hawking has proven (on paper) that black holes will evaporate. We haven't been able to confirm this fact, because (a) we haven't observed black holes directly, and (b) the big black holes that exist in the universe will evaporate very slowly and undetectably. If black holes are created at the LHC (subject to condition 1), they will be very tiny and will evaporate very quickly, like in 0.000000000000000000000000001 s (i.e. much faster than Bolt's reaction time!).

3. If they are created and are stable, the black holes must remain on the Earth. The protons involved in the collisions are traveling at 99.99999% the speed of light. Any particles that fly out of the collision -- including black holes -- will have a speed much, much greater than the Earth's escape velocity. So, most likely if (1, 2) are correct, the black holes will fly out into space before we know they're there.

4. There is a MINISCULE probability that the black holes will be created with precisely 0 velocity (two protons colliding exactly head on with exactly the same speed can do this, but that's very difficult to do). If that happens (and they are stable), the black hole will sink into the earth toward the core and start gobbling stuff up. In this case, depending on who you ask, we'll have between 5-30 years to figure out how to get off the planet.

Anyway, the short answer to the above quote is: "Ain't gonna happen!"

This would be a great movie if number 4 happened

Quick, JRM, get your idea copyrighted! Fox Searchlight or [insert other movie studio here] will have this movie out in 12 months if you dont.

[imaginative]

Could such a miniscule black hole actually destroy the planet? To me, it
seems that with the total mass (and therefore gravitional force) available
to the black hole, it would only have a very marginal effect except in the
very long term (even if we overlook e.g. the possibility of evaporation).

In particular, I do not see how it could sink into the earth at a speed
where it would be impossible to simple dig up a piece of the floor and send
it away on the next space shuttle. (Assuming that it actually managed to
land on a floor in the first place---and, obviously, that its existence and
position were known.)

Disclaimer: I have not read up on the experiment, and may be speaking out
of ignorance.

[scottmitchell74]

Has anyone read the book Blasphemy?

Blasphemy is a novel by Douglas Preston that was released on January 8, 2008.

[edit] Plot summary

The world's largest supercollider, known as Isabella, is constructed inside Red Mesa, hoping to learn the physics behind the Big Bang theory.

A group of a dozen scientists, handpicked by Nobel Prize winning Gregory Hazelius are sent to work on the project, and what they discover must be hidden from the world at all costs. Meanwhile, an ex-CIA agent named Wyman Ford attempts to familiarize himself with them and learn their secret.

Pretty good/interesting book. Worth a read if you dig this stuff. (I does make all Christians out to either be loonies or sheep....but it's just a story)

[JRM]

Could such a miniscule black hole actually destroy the planet? To me, it seems that with the total mass (and therefore gravitional force) available to the black hole, it would only have a very marginal effect except in the very long term (even if we overlook e.g. the possibility of evaporation).

If created, the black holes will have a mass roughly 10,000 times that of a proton. So, right after they're created they won't do much of anything. The problem comes when the black hole starts eating other particles is encounters. As it grows, it becomes more problematic.

In particular, I do not see how it could sink into the earth at a speed
where it would be impossible to simple dig up a piece of the floor and send
it away on the next space shuttle. (Assuming that it actually managed to
land on a floor in the first place---and, obviously, that its existence and
position were known.)

Because the black hole would be so small (about 100,000 times smaller than a proton), it would sink to the center of the Earth and we'd never be able to find it.

Has anyone read the book Blasphemy?

Haven't seen that one!

[imaginative]

Re: End of World Nigh ?

Quick, JRM, get your idea copyrighted! Fox Searchlight or [insert other movie studio here] will have this movie out in 12 months if you dont.

I briefly skimmed through a few wikipedia pages (I hope to have time to
read up properly at a later time), and
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Micro_black_hole
claims that the fiction already exists:

In David Brin's novel "Earth" a manmade micro blackhole slips into the core
of the earth.

[rasb]

I just caught some CNN coverage on the CERN project.
Good stuff, JRM !
Remember, if Scenario # 4 (as above) does play out, head for Alaska. We'll all be safe there. I hope the bridge is finished

[Aiden]

Re: End of World Nigh ?

In David Brin's novel "Earth" a manmade micro blackhole slips into the core of the earth.

I have one in my dryer. Takes one sock per load.

[paulthefan]

Re: End of World Nigh ?

tomorrow, scientists attempt to make a mini "big bang"
..
even as a guy who likes science, i'm a little queasy at this experiment

a man of your stature can not really be worried.

[BruceFlorman]

Re: End of World Nigh ?

3. If they are created and are stable, the black holes must remain on the Earth. The protons involved in the collisions are traveling at 99.99999% the speed of light. Any particles that fly out of the collision -- including black holes -- will have a speed much, much greater than the Earth's escape velocity. So, most likely if (1, 2) are correct, the black holes will fly out into space before we know they're there.

4. There is a MINISCULE probability that the black holes will be created with precisely 0 velocity (two protons colliding exactly head on with exactly the same speed can do this, but that's very difficult to do). If that happens (and they are stable), the black hole will sink into the earth toward the core and start gobbling stuff up. In this case, depending on who you ask, we'll have between 5-30 years to figure out how to get off the planet.

Any chance of talkin' them into slowing one of the particle streams down to 99.99963% the speed of light? That way (if I didn't screw up the math) any perfect head-on collisions should still have the 11.2 km/s needed to become someone else's problem, rather than ours. 8-)

And suppose one goes flyin' outta Switzerland and heads for the sun?!? How long will we have to figure out how to get out of the solar system? :wink:

[eldrick]

if you slow the protons down this amount, they are just going to bounce off each other with nothing happening

they need this great speed because they want to "smash 'em up" & see what's hiding inside these protons - fantasy particles like this higgs particle, etc ( jrm can tell us properly )

no speed - no experiment

[tandfman]

If created, the black holes will have a mass roughly 10,000 times that of a proton. So, right after they're created they won't do much of anything. The problem comes when the black hole starts eating other particles is encounters. As it grows, it becomes more problematic.

In particular, I do not see how it could sink into the earth at a speed
where it would be impossible to simple dig up a piece of the floor and send
it away on the next space shuttle. (Assuming that it actually managed to
land on a floor in the first place---and, obviously, that its existence and
position were known.)

Because the black hole would be so small (about 100,000 times smaller than a proton), it would sink to the center of the Earth and we'd never be able to find it.

Is it possible that we would not know that the black hole has been created and has sunk to the center of th Earth when it happened? If so, when and how would it start to provide evidence of its existence?

[eldrick]

you's start noticing the earth's surface gravity to start slowly increasing from 9.81m/s^2 to 9.82, 9.83...

[imaginative]

If created, the black holes will have a mass roughly 10,000 times that of a proton. So, right after they're created they won't do much of anything. The problem comes when the black hole starts eating other particles is encounters. As it grows, it becomes more problematic.

In particular, I do not see how it could sink into the earth at a speed
where it would be impossible to simple dig up a piece of the floor and send
it away on the next space shuttle. (Assuming that it actually managed to
land on a floor in the first place---and, obviously, that its existence and
position were known.)

Because the black hole would be so small (about 100,000 times smaller than a proton), it would sink to the center of the Earth and we'd never be able to find it.

Is it possible that we would not know that the black hole has been created and has sunk to the center of th Earth when it happened? If so, when and how would it start to provide evidence of its existence?

This is one of the things that puzzle me too. I do not see how it
could have any _direct_ effect on the surface. Instead, it would just
eat up the floating parts of the earths innards, effectively creating
a somewhat larger black-hole surrounded by empty space and a giant
shell corresponding to the surface. I can only guess that it would
have indirect effects through seizmic disturbances and eventually a
collapse of the surface due to lack of supporting inner pressure (and
even here I am uncertain, lacking the geological knowledge, if the
surface may not be stable enough to survive). Effectively, it would
not be a change in gravity, but a change in supporting structures, that
ended things.

Another interesting thought is that the black hole would not go from
the surface to a resting place at the center of the earth. For one
thing, it would likely have a jo-jo like movement, moving past the
center, then moving up-again, then down, until slowly growing to a
halt. For another, it will start with a tangential (to the earth's
rotation) velocity component that is larger than the surround masses
closer to the earth's center. This in turn could cause a spiral
movement of some kind. Eventually, it all boils down to how fast it
would absorb surrounding mass (and thus slow down).

Then again, if JMR is right about the low amount of resistance offered
through the original small size, the likelyhood of absorbing mass at
any given time is comparatively small (at least initially) making this
a slow process.

I would not like to be the one developing a mathematical model for
this problem.

(Why do I answer when I do not really know anything? Because I have
noticed that the more I write today, the better my thoughts are
tomorrow---even if what I write today is off the mark.)

[eldrick]

earth's core is molten

a black hole is going to swallow this up, keeping overall mass constant, but earth's radius is going to reduce, pushing up value of g

i'd guess, best way to test it in your kitchen is to get out those nice electronic scales, put in small amount of sugar in an air-tight container to say 100g exact weight

re-weigh weekly & if it starts creeping up to 100.5g, 101g...

we are screwed :shock:

[Master Po]

What's the worst that could happen?. They inadvertently destroy all matter in our universe? Just think of it as a reboot of the system.

At which time we could perhaps wipe the slate clean of any problematic WRs and other questionable performances high on the all-time lists...(but only if all matter in the universe is destroyed first -- otherwise, I'm a traditionalist...)