Cyclists on next generation of EPO?

[gh]

Multiple Tour de France hits for its successor, CERA (story on front page)

[rasb]

Re: Cyclists on next generation of EPO?

Multiple Tour de France hits for its successor, CERA (story on front page)

And more to come soon, I hear.

[26mi235]

Both of these were the 'expected' cases. Leonardo Piepoli admitted to using along with roommate Ricco, although he recanted at Ricco's meeting with the Italian committee. Stefan Schumacher has had multiple run-ins, including being dropped from the World's team on his home (German) course last year.

The other possible miscreants are a little harder to guess at, but the more that they get rid of the better. Jazz, what is your opinion on the evolving state of the top level in cycling? Is it getting clean enough that the riders feel that they can succeed without doping and that the chances of eventually getting caught are increasing (and if they do dope, it is with reduced levels, making it easier for clean competitors to prevail). Note that some of these 'positives' are the result of inconsistencies in tests across time.

It does seem that 'ordinary good' cyclists are now winning (e.g., LP, SS) when they use PEDs, which is consistent with others not using (much). An interesting dynamic may create some problems. The number of available positions seems to be decreasing. This means some riders might decide that they cannot stay in the sport unless they use PEDs, so the loss from being caught is less (i.e., they would be out of the sport either way).
top cyclists with jobs is decreasing and

[jazzcyclist]

Last year I thought that the sport was definitely cleaning up when it was the slowest in 13 years, but this year the speed is back up a bit, so I don't know what to think. Armstrong coming out of retirement definitely intrigues me. I can't possibly imagine that he would be so wreckless as to risk doping at this stage in his life with all he has to lose. And I don't think he would want to be the only clean rider in the peleton and risk embarassing himself either. That leads me to believe that he must believe that the pro peleton is relatively clean, and I would think that he would be in a position to know.

26, you make a good point about doping in sports, when you say that as long as marginal athletes feel that they cannot stay in the sport unless they use PEDs, there are going to be athletes doping, since there is no loss from being caught, because they would be out of the sport either way. For example, Jose Canseco says that he would have never made it to the big leagues without doping, so doping was a no-brainer for him. The only way this will change is if the punishment for doping becomes much more draconian than being kicked out of professional sports, and only law enforcement can make that happen. How many of us would speed on the highways if the punishment for getting caught was a mandatory five years in prison?

[26mi235]

Baseball has this big asymmetry in rewards of Major vs Minor leagues. A lot of pressure to make the next level, especially if they stick past the first bit. Baseball does seem to have instituted harder testing at the minor level, but this is just my impression.

[26mi235]

some more on the additional tests:

http://www.velonews.com/article/84101/why-so-long-for-schumy

"The fact is that Micera is an innovative molecule that is both functionally and structurally different and it can be differentiated in samples from both naturally occurring erythropoietin and from all other traditional ESA products," the company noted in its statement. "Roche has provided samples of Mircera and assay reagents to the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) to help ensure that WADA laboratories will be able to carry out reliable anti-doping testing."
...
Recent developments in blood testing have improved the ability of testers to distinguish exogenous EPO in plasma samples. That method, coupled with the new "biological passport" requirement that individual riders provide a regularly updated blood profile, has allowed testers to isolate traces of exogenous EPO and, now, CERA.

The Tour de France noted that there were blood samples from 15 riders, whose urine tests were inconclusive, that were to be analyzed for indications of CERA use. Thus far, we've seen the results of just two.

[croflash]

Both of these were the 'expected' cases. Leonardo Piepoli admitted to using along with roommate Ricco, although he recanted at Ricco's meeting with the Italian committee. Stefan Schumacher has had multiple run-ins, including being dropped from the World's team on his home (German) course last year.

Actually, Schumacher won the bronze medal in that race.

[Powell]

Reportedly some urine samples collected at the Olympics are to be retested using new CERA tests.

[gh]

And endurance athletes across the board are quaking in their shoes?

Suppose the worst possible scenario you could imagine played out, and (making some big numbers up) the IOC found 20 cyclists, a dozen tracksters, 10 swimmers, 3 modern pentathletes and a few scattered people in other sports to be CERA positive.

Would they view it as a major triumph, or go "holy shit, we've got a PR disaster on our hands, how do we spin this?" Or would they even consider a cover-up?

[Jefferson Buffalo]

Suppose the worst possible scenario you could imagine played out, and (making some big numbers up) the IOC found 20 cyclists, a dozen tracksters, 10 swimmers, 3 modern pentathletes and a few scattered people in other sports to be CERA positive.

Que cera, cera.

[26mi235]

Both of these were the 'expected' cases. Leonardo Piepoli admitted to using along with roommate Ricco, although he recanted at Ricco's meeting with the Italian committee. Stefan Schumacher has had multiple run-ins, including being dropped from the World's team on his home (German) course last year.

Actually, Schumacher won the bronze medal in that race.

My mistake. I was thinking of the after-incident that might have led to his losing his award (from Wikipedia):

Following his third place in the 2007 world championships in his home town of Stuttgart, Schumacher was arrested for drunken driving. Four months later he revealed that the blood test taken at the time of his arrest had shown traces of amphetamines, whilst denying that he had knowingly taken drugs or had any knowledge of how the positive test had come about. Since a rule change in 2004 amphetamines were no longer on the WADA's out-of-competition banned list; as a result the German federation again exonerated him.


Also, The next most talked about potential positive Tour was Bernard Kohl, who seemed to be riding 'above form' in the Tour. Apparently the other shoe dropped today. Now I am at a loss to predict others without going closely over the race results.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news.php?id=news/2008/oct08/oct13news4

"Bernhard Kohl of Gerolsteiner tested non-negative for CERA, French sports paper L'Equipe reports. The French anti-doping agency AFLD had tested Kohl's blood samples. Kohl finished third in the Tour de France and won the climber's jersey"

[26mi235]

AFLD done with Tour testing – no more cases

The French anti-doping agency AFLD has concluded its re-testing of the 2008 Tour de France samples. Bernhard Kohl was the last to be caught and no other cases have been found, L'Equipe reported.

There were a total of 30 samples re-tested specifically for CERA, after suspicious blood values had been observed.

[Mennisco]

Serious question: Are obese people wanting to get their hands on this drug?

How much? where? prequalified by WHO?