Why the Steelers will win another Superbowl

[dakota]

Who had Barama to win the 2008 Prez Sweepstakes in their post-2004 office pools?

Me.

[Marlow]

Who had Barama to win the 2008 Prez Sweepstakes in their post-2004 office pools?

Me.

Really. He was an Illinois state senator at that time. He had, however, delivered the keynote address ar the DNC that summer. Good call by whoever decided that!

[Texas]

You're just saying that because I seem to know the outcome of these big football games in advance....huh?

as someone that knows something about football, Id like to say emphatically that Tex is as good a prognosticator as I have ever seen. Very rare.

Thank you 8-)

It didn't start out that way however. I got into trying to pick football games back in my Navy days. Like everyone who gets into that "science" I took a beating at first. I didn't understand scheduling dynamics which is the foundation you build upon in the NFL where any team can beat any other team. That isn't so in college football. USC will beat North East Missouri State 100 out of a 100 games. Huge difference in levels of talent in college ball, not so in the NFL.

Let's say Seattle is playing the Jets. It's the Seahawks second road game in a row. They had just won a division game vs the Rams and are feeling pretty good about themselves. The Jets are home again after losing to the Bengals and need a win with division foe Miami next up in Miami. Now how do the Seahawks do in that second consecutive road game? How often do the Jets lose two home games in a row? I go back two seasons. In that "spot" the Seahawks are a feeble 1-3 while the Jets haven't lost two home games in that period of time. Now how do the Seahawks do as roadwarriors after a home division victory? In that "spot" they are 2-6. As we can see there is no real reason to back the Seahawks in this "spot". Now add how do they do vs east coast teams? In that "spot" a meager 1-4. Oh yeah that game vs the Rams was a Monday night game. So how do they perform on the road coming off a short week? Yep they are weak in that "spot" also. Division games are the ones the pros gear up for since the goal is to make the playoffs. After a division game we can see a let down, the Seahwaks could be in that "spot". Good teams coming off a loss another "spot" to zero in on, the Jets could be in that "spot".

The deal is looking for reasons to back a road team. As you can see I have no reason to back the Seahawks in this particular "spot" so I won't. Yes it is time consuming and unless you are serious about the "science" of picking winners you won't be successful. I enjoy the challenge and the rewards that come with doing the homework.

Yes all that does is tell you who "should" win the game. Turnovers, penalties and injuries will ruin the best laid plans and often do. My goal is to go 11-5 in straight up picks and I will accomplish that. When it comes to beating the spread I'll win 4 out of 6. Keep in mind that's after about 40 years of study :lol:

College football is where you play one/two games because there are a ton of advantages favoring one team or another. No way you have time to look at all those games. You only zero in on league games after the 4th week of the season. You look for a good team that loss. As we know in college football a loss is huge, the good teams usually bounce back because another loss is devastating. You search out those "spots". Now start looking at which losing team has a lot of advantages vs their next opponet.

I do have a magazine that I purchase every season that has all that info I'm talking about as far as history goes.

[bambam]

You're just saying that because I seem to know the outcome of these big football games in advance....huh?

as someone that knows something about football, Id like to say emphatically that Tex is as good a prognosticator as I have ever seen. Very rare.

Thank you 8-)

It didn't start out that way however. I got into trying to pick football games back in my Navy days. Like everyone who gets into that "science" I took a beating at first. I didn't understand scheduling dynamics which is the foundation you build upon in the NFL where any team can beat any other team. That isn't so in college football. USC will beat North East Missouri State 100 out of a 100 games. Huge difference in levels of talent in college ball, not so in the NFL.

Let's say Seattle is playing the Jets. It's the Seahawks second road game in a row. They had just won a division game vs the Rams and are feeling pretty good about themselves. The Jets are home again after losing to the Bengals and need a win with division foe Miami next up in Miami. Now how do the Seahawks do in that second consecutive road game? How often do the Jets lose two home games in a row? I go back two seasons. In that "spot" the Seahawks are a feeble 1-3 while the Jets haven't lost two home games in that period of time. Now how do the Seahawks do as roadwarriors after a home division victory? In that "spot" they are 2-6. As we can see there is no real reason to back the Seahawks in this "spot". Now add how do they do vs east coast teams? In that "spot" a meager 1-4. Oh yeah that game vs the Rams was a Monday night game. So how do they perform on the road coming off a short week? Yep they are weak in that "spot" also. Division games are the ones the pros gear up for since the goal is to make the playoffs. After a division game we can see a let down, the Seahwaks could be in that "spot". Good teams coming off a loss another "spot" to zero in on, the Jets could be in that "spot".

The deal is looking for reasons to back a road team. As you can see I have no reason to back the Seahawks in this particular "spot" so I won't. Yes it is time consuming and unless you are serious about the "science" of picking winners you won't be successful. I enjoy the challenge and the rewards that come with doing the homework.

Yes all that does is tell you who "should" win the game. Turnovers, penalties and injuries will ruin the best laid plansand often do. My goal is to go 11-5 in straight up picks and I will accomplish that. When it comes to beating the spread I'll win 4 out of 6. Keep in mind that's after about 40 years of study :lol:

So have you become wealthy as a result of this?

[Texas]

So have you become wealthy as a result of this?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Not sure wealthy is the word. How about it's worth the time I spend disecting these games...ok? The rewards are worth the effort..ok?

[Texas]

You're just saying that because I seem to know the outcome of these big football games in advance....huh?

The bad news: you got last year's Super Bowl DEAD WRONG! :twisted:

The good news: I agree with the comment above - you DO know your sprinters and your football. But sometimes even the experts are wrong. Who had Barama to win the 2008 Prez Sweepstakes in their post-2004 office pools?

Let's look at that Giants win again...ok? Remember that the Pats were winning with less than 2 minutes to go in the game...right? Then there was "the play" the one where they almost had Manning, then he throws one up and the cat catchs it on top his helmut. That play changed everything. I had the right side. If they had played the following week I take the Pats again. I did lose the game but...DEAD WRONG....really isn't accurate.

[Marlow]

Let's look at that Giants win again...ok? Remember that the Pats were winning with less than 2 minutes to go in the game...right? Then there was "the play" the one where they almost had Manning, then he throws one up and the cat catchs it on top his helmut. That play changed everything. I had the right side. If they had played the following week I take the Pats again. I did lose the game but...DEAD WRONG....really isn't accurate.

Texas - that whole post is below your dignity! As any Vegas bookie can tell you, there's only the Win and the Loss!

[Texas]

Let's look at that Giants win again...ok? Remember that the Pats were winning with less than 2 minutes to go in the game...right? Then there was "the play" the one where they almost had Manning, then he throws one up and the cat catchs it on top his helmut. That play changed everything. I had the right side. If they had played the following week I take the Pats again. I did lose the game but...DEAD WRONG....really isn't accurate.

Texas - that whole post is below your dignity! As any Vegas bookie can tell you, there's only the Win and the Loss!

While I picked a winner, I didn't play a side. I played straight up plays vs NFC/Giant fans. The Giants had the better defense which kept me off the spread aspect.

Here's a little something...

A team will be one of four things.

home favorite
home dog
road favorite
road dog

Historically speaking the strongest play in the NFL is a small home dog. A team getting 3 or less at home. If you just looked for that situation and played nothing but small home dogs you'd be a winner. Just another weapon in your arsenal 8-)

[Marlow]

If you just looked for that situation and played nothing but small home dogs you'd be a winner. Just another weapon in your arsenal 8-)

The Vegas bookies are pros who understand that and adjust the line for that. I'm guessing that if you took a large field of data and looked at 1 or 2 point home underdogs, they would cover the spread right around 50%.

[Texas]

If you just looked for that situation and played nothing but small home dogs you'd be a winner. Just another weapon in your arsenal 8-)

The Vegas bookies are pros who understand that and adjust the line for that. I'm guessing that if you took a large field of data and looked at 1 or 2 point home underdogs, they would cover the spread right around 50%.

Marlow don't argue with me over this...please! I've been at this a long time...ok? Yes like you I was skeptical and also thought..."what a bunch of bull." That was until I started "really" getting into it. Like anything else there are fundamentals involved. Something the average bettor doesn't understand. I wish I had a buck for everytime I've heard.."that stuff means nothing"...as they hand me over the $. There is a system/science to this and it does take time to understand that. Yes small home dogs are the best play in the NFL, it's not even debatable...ok?

paste..

Betting on underdogs at home is a general guideline in NFL handicapping that Sharp bettors look for when they are scanning the betting lines for value. Slim underdogs win regularly outright when they play inspired team ball. This is usually true for all a sports and can be easily researched on the Internet for your local team's ATS record. Big underdogs at home generally cover because do not give up at home in an embarrassing loss because they know that their home fans have paid good money to see them. Through solid research you can find teams with good ATS home records even though they have lousy W-L records.

[Marlow]

Marlow don't argue with me over this...please! I've been at this a long time...ok?

You don't know me very well, do you??!!

The ones arguing with you would be the Vegas bookies who would laugh at you, if you think you know more than they do. They have access to far more 'live data' than you do. Their income depends on how well they know the line. Although I HAVE been 'at it' (following the NFL) LONGER than you, I do completely defer to your greater knowledge of the game, because I no longer follow it closely, BUT the people whose livelihoods depend on their following it VERY closely would like to talk to you out behind the casino at 5pm today. 8-)

[Texas]

Marlow don't argue with me over this...please! I've been at this a long time...ok?

You don't know me very well, do you??!!

The ones arguing with you would be the Vegas bookies who would laugh at you, if you think you know more than they do. They have access to far more 'live data' than you do. Their income depends on how well they know the line. Although I HAVE been 'at it' (following the NFL) LONGER than you, I do completely defer to your greater knowledge of the game, because I no longer follow it closely, BUT the people whose livelihoods depend on their following it VERY closely would like to talk to you out behind the casino at 5pm today. 8-)

Couldn't be more wrong. First of all it's not "Bookies" who set the line. You are talking "odds makers" not Bookies...ok? As you probably know all they are trying to do is split the bets right down the middle or 50/50. So when you play that 110 to win a 100 the "vig" is the profit.

Ok you leave me no choice, I didn't really wanna brag too much but....

I am a student of the top handicapper in the country in Marc Lawrence. I have access to everything it takes to beat the spread. Yes a bookie's nightmare because they feast on passionate players. Guys who like a team which is voodoo to us serious players. You never ever play a game because of emotion. This is business! I will crush any bookie over a football season. To the point of them not wanting to deal with me any longer. Marlow you really aren't getting this. Stop trying to argue and disbelieve...ok?

Tell me Marlow, who was the first NFL player from one of those HBCU schools? What player with no college experience lead the league in rushing? That's where I'm at when it comes to this stuff. Very serious...ok?

[paulthefan]

Ok you leave me no choice, I didn't really wanna brag too much but....

I am a student of the top handicapper in the country in Marc Lawrence.

amazing, I didnt even know any of your past but after reading 4 or 5 of your football "guesses" I could tell you had a great eye for the game.

[Marlow]

First of all it's not "Bookies" who set the line. You are talking "odds makers" not Bookies...ok?

Yes, I knew that. I meant 'bookies' as the 'Betting Establishment'

I will crush any bookie over a football season. To the point of them not wanting to deal with me any longer. Marlow you really aren't getting this. Stop trying to argue and disbelieve...ok?

oh . . . please . . . :roll: Oh course I am a disbeliever. You'd be a MULTI-millionaire if this were true.

[Texas]

Ok you leave me no choice, I didn't really wanna brag too much but....

I am a student of the top handicapper in the country in Marc Lawrence.

amazing, I didnt even know any of your past but after reading 4 or 5 of your football "guesses" I could tell you had a great eye for the game.

Like everything else the key word is.......experience.