Econ Predictions...

[jhc68]

For decades when I went to a mall, I'd be appalled thinking, "Why do people buy all this crap?"

Last night I walked through a mall and I was appalled thinking, "Good Lord, NOBODY is buying ANY of this crap!"

So what's the consensus of opinion here? How bad is the current economic mess going to become?

On a 1-10 scale with 1=Just Another Recession and 10= Apocalyptic Social Collapse, how do you foresee the next couple of years?

[AS]

i'd go with an highly ill-informed and uncertain 4...

[AthleticsInBritain]

I'd love for this to be the ending of people buying "all this crap" as the markets have become so overblown. I'd love for people to realise they don't have to instantly have the latest 100" flatscreen tv in Super-duper-extra-fab-HD or they'll be regarded as neanderthals next to their neighbours who've got everything.

Sadly, I think it's just another periodic correction like we've been having since the South Sea bubble. Our PM, Gordon Brown made the freudian slip of calling it a 'depression' today. My former boss, a globalisation and labour market prof thinks we're up a well-known creek without a paddle of Great Depression proportions. I didn't agree until UK's Woolworths folded last year, although they had a bad business model. But we've seen several 'Main Street' chains go under in the last 6 months. You could argue they would have gone anyway but ...

I'm undecided, but anyone with any knowledge ought to have seen this coming a couple of years ago. Although things may be different in Britain than in the USA.

[eldrick]

Re: Econ Predictions...

For decades...

2 or 3

there has been no tech bubble comparable to '00

dow ~ 8k, but nearly shifted by 1k in a day last year !

it can stabilise at 9 - 10k, banks can be nationalised & re-inflation to 3 - 4% is educatory - it's simply liquidity - 3 - 4% inflation is perfectly acceptable as long as base rate is 5 - 6%

we are getting stuffed with curse of deflation currently - prices fall, consumers pay less, wages fall as result, etc - curse of japan for a decade+ - they refuse to inflate believing limitless exporting is king, but if income barely covers costs, it isn't - they are too scared to change now

anyhows it shoud impact the obesity crisis !

[lonewolf]

Re: Econ Predictions...

For decades when I went to a mall, I'd be appalled thinking, "Why do people buy all this crap?"?

That has always been my reaction too, regardless of the overall economy. What happens to all that stuff? It cannot possibly all be sold.
Admittedly, the world economy would be in the dumper if everyone were as non-acquisitive as I. I concluded long ago that all a man really needs is a serviceable vehicle, a good camera , two pairs of pants, four shirts and enough underwear and socks to get from washday to washday.
Sadly, or maybe not, none of my significant others and dependents shared my economic philosophy and have over-compensated for my penury..

[eldrick]

Re: Econ Predictions...

I concluded long ago that all a man really needs is a serviceable vehicle, a good camera , two pairs of pants, four shirts and enough underwear and socks to get from washday to washday

a camera ?

why so profligate

when mobile phones came out, i sold my camera & bought a phone with camera built in for 1/2 the return & pocketed the rest

[catson52]

i'd go with an highly ill-informed and uncertain 4...

I will go with another highly ill-informed and uncertain 7.

[catson52]

Re: Econ Predictions...

For decades when I went to a mall, I'd be appalled thinking, "Why do people buy all this crap?"?

That has always been my reaction too, regardless of the overall economy. What happens to all that stuff? It cannot possibly all be sold.
Admittedly, the world economy would be in the dumper if everyone were as non-acquisitive as I. I concluded long ago that all a man really needs is a serviceable vehicle, a good camera , two pairs of pants, four shirts and enough underwear and socks to get from washday to washday.
Sadly, or maybe not, none of my significant others and dependents shared my economic philosophy and have over-compensated for my penury..

Agree with most of what you said. My single significant other of 38 years goes along with my "miserly" ways. One good part of this is that in spite of my retiring last year, and my wife thinking of doing so in a few months - both from state jobs, we hope to ride out this financial storm, with no "income" from jobs.

[Halfmiler2]

I'd say we are at about a 5. It likely won't get much worse - although the unemployment rate (which is a lagging economic indicator) will still rise in the coming months. The recovery, however, is likely to be quite slow and lackluster because the bailouts, stimulus packages, etc. are preventing the necessary economic corrections to take place. The next few years are unlikely to be like the early 1980's when the economy came roaring back in 1984. Instead, it is more likely to be like Japan in the 1990's.

[gh]

Re: Econ Predictions...

...
anyhows it shoud impact the obesity crisis !

If you mean make it worse, yes, as McFood more and more replaces a healthy diet.

[SQUACKEE]

Re: Econ Predictions...

...
anyhows it shoud impact the obesity crisis !

If you mean make it worse, yes, as McFood more and more replaces a healthy diet.

Eggsactly- you can get a double cheese burger packed with fat and calories for a freaking dollar! Probably 350-400 calories for a buck.

[Conor Dary]

Re: Econ Predictions...

...
anyhows it shoud impact the obesity crisis !

If you mean make it worse, yes, as McFood more and more replaces a healthy diet.

Eggsactly- you can get a double cheese burger packed with fat and calories for a freaking dollar! Probably 350-400 calories for a buck.

460 calories.

http://caloriecount.about.com/calories- ... ger-i53968

[polevaultpower]

7 or 8. I think 5 to 10 years to recover.

We're thinking about moving out to the sticks with the grandparents and doing a little farming to supplement whatever jobs we can pick up in the area. It could keep them in their house and keep the house in the family, so kind of a win-win.