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Bill James: When is a College Basketball Game "Over&quo

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  • Bill James: When is a College Basketball Game "Over&quo

    Any thoughts?

    http://www.slate.com/id/2213713/?from=rss

  • #2
    A 17-point lead with three minutes to play ... bingo. That's a safe lead.
    I'll bet there HAS been a game, HS, college, pro or YMCA, when that has not been the case. Obviously there is a point, 20 points with a minute to go, when it's beyond reach, but 17 with 3 to go ain't it. Full court press, steals, and 3s can reverse a score in a big hurry.

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    • #3
      I remember my HS basketball team cramming into a car after our own game to listen to Okla A&M (now Okla State) score 11 points in the final minute to beat Wyoming in the 1948 (?) NCAA tournament. This was post-Kurland, before the three point shot when final scores were typically in the 30s and 40s

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      • #4
        "My editor, doing his due diligence, found one game in which a team lost after holding a safe lead. On March 2, 1974, North Carolina trailed Duke, 86-78, with 17 seconds to play—a safe lead for Duke. Duke had repeated misadventures in in-bounding the basketball and wound up losing the game in overtime. That was before the human typo was hired to coach Duke, but ... does anybody know where I could get a tape of that game?"

        bambam, do you remember this game?

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        • #5
          Originally posted by dj
          "My editor, doing his due diligence, found one game in which a team lost after holding a safe lead. On March 2, 1974, North Carolina trailed Duke, 86-78, with 17 seconds to play—a safe lead for Duke. Duke had repeated misadventures in in-bounding the basketball and wound up losing the game in overtime. That was before the human typo was hired to coach Duke, but ... does anybody know where I could get a tape of that game?"

          bambam, do you remember this game?
          There is footage of this famous game in the UNC/Duke documentary that's currently on HBO.

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          • #6
            Compare these two results:
            10 point lead with 0:40 left and team ahead does not have the ball: Yes, the lead is 100% safe.
            Team behind makes 3 point shot.
            7 point lead with 0:38 left and team ahead does have the ball: On the way, the lead is 53% safe.

            Seems to be a wild swing there.

            Not basketball, but one of the weirder come from behinds I watched on TV involved a Minnesota state high school hockey game (it may have been consolation round). One team was up 5-2. The team behind scored with 35, 18, and 3 seconds left (roughly) to tie the game. I think that they lost in overtime though.

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            • #7
              different sport but must be mentioned

              the heidibowl
              Tom Hyland:
              "squack and wineturtle get it"

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