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  • #16
    Originally posted by mump boy
    i read one report that 100,000 'could' get swine flu every day !!! and the 98,000 would die in london alone (98,000 mind you not 100,000) who comes up with this crap. :roll:
    Maybe somebody with a better sense of history?

    Pandemic flu strains tend to infect between 25 percent and 35 percent of the population - in London and surrounds with a rough population of 9m, that would mean 2,250,000 - 3,150,000 infected. The death rate in the 1918 pandemic was an average of 2.6 %.(but up to 16%). A replication of that 2.6% would mean 58,500 - 81,900 dead.

    The H5N1 "avian flu" has infected 352 people since 2003 and killed 219, which is 62% mortality. This gives you an indication of the potency of the flu virus but let's assume that this is a wild overestimate and reduce that potential mortality rate to 6.2%, one tenth of current. This would give you London deaths of 139,500 - 195,300 or 450,000 - 630,000 if it is 1/3 of the current rate.

    Of course, the swine flu is currently highly infectious but has a very low mortality rate but so did the 1918 flu when it first started....

    Don't assume that a modern society will save you either. You would shit yourself if you knew how few people can be involved in supplying critical supplies to huge percentages of the populations. With a just in time society, just having a large number infected can have massive knock on effects.

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    • #17
      [quote=El Toro]
      Originally posted by "mump boy":3krtt6go
      i read one report that 100,000 'could' get swine flu every day !!! and the 98,000 would die in london alone (98,000 mind you not 100,000) who comes up with this crap. :roll:
      Maybe somebody with a better sense of history?

      Pandemic flu strains tend to infect between 25 percent and 35 percent of the population - in London and surrounds with a rough population of 9m, that would mean 2,250,000 - 3,150,000 infected. The death rate in the 1918 pandemic was an average of 2.6 %.(but up to 16%). A replication of that 2.6% would mean 58,500 - 81,900 dead.

      The H5N1 "avian flu" has infected 352 people since 2003 and killed 219, which is 62% mortality. This gives you an indication of the potency of the flu virus but let's assume that this is a wild overestimate and reduce that potential mortality rate to 6.2%, one tenth of current. This would give you London deaths of 139,500 - 195,300 or 450,000 - 630,000 if it is 1/3 of the current rate.

      Of course, the swine flu is currently highly infectious but has a very low mortality rate but so did the 1918 flu when it first started....

      Don't assume that a modern society will save you either. You would shit yourself if you knew how few people can be involved in supplying critical supplies to huge percentages of the populations. With a just in time society, just having a large number infected can have massive knock on effects.[/quote:3krtt6go]

      i couldn't care less, what am i going to do about it stay indoors forever !??! there is absolutely no point in bandying about made up figures only to scare people and get yourself on the news. i have no control over the supply of drug, the strength of the virus or contamination rate. creating hysteria doen nothgin to help

      it was reported inthe new today that a 2 year old girl died of meningitus because everyone at the doctors and the hospital just assumed it was swine flu !and sent her home :shock:
      i deserve extra credit

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      • #18
        Originally posted by mump boy
        i couldn't care less, what am i going to do about it stay indoors forever !??! there is absolutely no point in bandying about made up figures only to scare people and get yourself on the news. i have no control over the supply of drug, the strength of the virus or contamination rate. creating hysteria doen nothgin to help
        I agree in principle with that sentiment, but on the other hand, I WILL be taking precautions. I'll get the shot; I'll limit my contact with others and things that could contain germs; I'll use that foam disinfectant on my hands more. But I will not become a germophobe and alter my basic life-style.

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        • #19
          The Public Health Agency of Canada is encouraging Canadians to "talk with family, friends, and neighbours and figure out how you might help each other during the H1Ni pandemic".
          The department will launch the next phase of its "Citizen Readiness Campaign" this fall with a major public information campaign that will focus on family preparedness plans, immunization, and keeping stockpiles of prescription medication, non-perishable food and water.
          Bloody socialists, trying to be their brother's keeper...
          Obviously, people who know a lot more about this than I do, and maybe almost as much as mump boy, are getting increasingly concerned about the
          possible next stage of this virus. I'm going to at least listen to them...

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          • #20
            Currently, the projection is so bleak that if you live above ground you will not survive this winter. :roll:

            http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/08/24/us ... index.html
            If you're ever walking down the beach and you see a girl dressed in a bikini made out of seashells, and you pick her up and hold her to your ear, you can hear her scream.

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            • #21
              http://news.aol.com/article/2000-studen ... ate/657100
              If you're ever walking down the beach and you see a girl dressed in a bikini made out of seashells, and you pick her up and hold her to your ear, you can hear her scream.

              Comment

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