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  • Dietmar239
    replied
    http://news.aol.com/article/2000-studen ... ate/657100

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  • Dietmar239
    replied
    Currently, the projection is so bleak that if you live above ground you will not survive this winter. :roll:

    http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/08/24/us ... index.html

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  • rasb
    replied
    The Public Health Agency of Canada is encouraging Canadians to "talk with family, friends, and neighbours and figure out how you might help each other during the H1Ni pandemic".
    The department will launch the next phase of its "Citizen Readiness Campaign" this fall with a major public information campaign that will focus on family preparedness plans, immunization, and keeping stockpiles of prescription medication, non-perishable food and water.
    Bloody socialists, trying to be their brother's keeper...
    Obviously, people who know a lot more about this than I do, and maybe almost as much as mump boy, are getting increasingly concerned about the
    possible next stage of this virus. I'm going to at least listen to them...

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  • Marlow
    replied
    Originally posted by mump boy
    i couldn't care less, what am i going to do about it stay indoors forever !??! there is absolutely no point in bandying about made up figures only to scare people and get yourself on the news. i have no control over the supply of drug, the strength of the virus or contamination rate. creating hysteria doen nothgin to help
    I agree in principle with that sentiment, but on the other hand, I WILL be taking precautions. I'll get the shot; I'll limit my contact with others and things that could contain germs; I'll use that foam disinfectant on my hands more. But I will not become a germophobe and alter my basic life-style.

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  • mump boy
    replied
    [quote=El Toro]
    Originally posted by "mump boy":3krtt6go
    i read one report that 100,000 'could' get swine flu every day !!! and the 98,000 would die in london alone (98,000 mind you not 100,000) who comes up with this crap. :roll:
    Maybe somebody with a better sense of history?

    Pandemic flu strains tend to infect between 25 percent and 35 percent of the population - in London and surrounds with a rough population of 9m, that would mean 2,250,000 - 3,150,000 infected. The death rate in the 1918 pandemic was an average of 2.6 %.(but up to 16%). A replication of that 2.6% would mean 58,500 - 81,900 dead.

    The H5N1 "avian flu" has infected 352 people since 2003 and killed 219, which is 62% mortality. This gives you an indication of the potency of the flu virus but let's assume that this is a wild overestimate and reduce that potential mortality rate to 6.2%, one tenth of current. This would give you London deaths of 139,500 - 195,300 or 450,000 - 630,000 if it is 1/3 of the current rate.

    Of course, the swine flu is currently highly infectious but has a very low mortality rate but so did the 1918 flu when it first started....

    Don't assume that a modern society will save you either. You would shit yourself if you knew how few people can be involved in supplying critical supplies to huge percentages of the populations. With a just in time society, just having a large number infected can have massive knock on effects.[/quote:3krtt6go]

    i couldn't care less, what am i going to do about it stay indoors forever !??! there is absolutely no point in bandying about made up figures only to scare people and get yourself on the news. i have no control over the supply of drug, the strength of the virus or contamination rate. creating hysteria doen nothgin to help

    it was reported inthe new today that a 2 year old girl died of meningitus because everyone at the doctors and the hospital just assumed it was swine flu !and sent her home :shock:

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  • El Toro
    replied
    Originally posted by mump boy
    i read one report that 100,000 'could' get swine flu every day !!! and the 98,000 would die in london alone (98,000 mind you not 100,000) who comes up with this crap. :roll:
    Maybe somebody with a better sense of history?

    Pandemic flu strains tend to infect between 25 percent and 35 percent of the population - in London and surrounds with a rough population of 9m, that would mean 2,250,000 - 3,150,000 infected. The death rate in the 1918 pandemic was an average of 2.6 %.(but up to 16%). A replication of that 2.6% would mean 58,500 - 81,900 dead.

    The H5N1 "avian flu" has infected 352 people since 2003 and killed 219, which is 62% mortality. This gives you an indication of the potency of the flu virus but let's assume that this is a wild overestimate and reduce that potential mortality rate to 6.2%, one tenth of current. This would give you London deaths of 139,500 - 195,300 or 450,000 - 630,000 if it is 1/3 of the current rate.

    Of course, the swine flu is currently highly infectious but has a very low mortality rate but so did the 1918 flu when it first started....

    Don't assume that a modern society will save you either. You would shit yourself if you knew how few people can be involved in supplying critical supplies to huge percentages of the populations. With a just in time society, just having a large number infected can have massive knock on effects.

    Leave a comment:


  • Pego
    replied
    Originally posted by K.I.R.
    Actually, with pandemic flu, as this batch of H1N1 is purported to be, it's the young and healthy who are at greatest risk.
    The mortality stats I've seen indicate that over 90% are those with significant underlying health problems.

    Leave a comment:


  • mump boy
    replied
    Originally posted by gm
    It is hardly simmering in the background in Britain. Pretty close to mass hysteria, it seems, reading the news reports.
    there has been hysteria in UK but only because we love to have something to moan about. apparently people have been dropping like flies i read one report that 100,000 'could' get swine flu every day !!! and the 98,000 would die in london alone (98,000 mind you not 100,000) who comes up with this crap.

    so far about 30 people have died and all but 2 had underlying health issues. i live in densily populated central london and don;t know one person who has had it

    :roll:

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  • K.I.R.
    replied
    Originally posted by Pego
    What a discovery! The sick and morbidly obese (sick, really) have a greater chance to be killed by flu than the healthy folk. WOW!
    Actually, with pandemic flu, as this batch of H1N1 is purported to be, it's the young and healthy who are at greatest risk. Unlike run of the mill flu, what actually kills people in a pandemic flu isn't the virus itself but the body's vigorous immune response to the invading pathogen. The more robust your immune system, the further up Shite Creek you are.
    Of course 'they' would never say this but if you are a strapping young man/woman in good health you really should've been finding people who had swine flu this spring and playing tonsil hockey with them. The early version of swine flu was affecting mostly the very old and very young, not even requiring hospitalization in most cases, and resulted in only a couple days of feeling ill. However, the exposure to the H1N1 strain would've given you an immunity to the second wave (which is more deadly in pandemic flus) that perhaps will be coming this fall.

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  • rasb
    replied
    The Government of Canada has just ordered 50.4 million shots of pandemic flu vaccine, to help combat a possible significant swine flu outbreak during the upcoming flu season.
    The Federal Government will cover 60 % of the costs, at $ 400. million plus, with the rest covered by the Provinces. Normally, the Provinces pay 100 % of the costs of seasonal flu vaccines, so this seems to represent a higher rate of alarm than normal. Ah, nice to have a National HealthCare System :wink:

    Leave a comment:


  • rasb
    replied
    Originally posted by jules
    Originally posted by gh
    We ain't remotely out of the woods. You should def. read this one:

    http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.c ... 603D03.DTL


    <<...In a disturbing new projection, health officials say up to 40 percent of Americans could get swine flu this year and next and several hundred thousand could die without a successful vaccine campaign and other measures....>>
    Okay but what % of Americans are obese?
    I don't think that is the point, jules, with all due respect. Who knows what will happen with this virus over the next few months? But if it takes hold, as many are projecting, the target populations will not only include the morbidly obese, but also the very young, and the elderly, and the frail, for whatever reasons... Cynically, one could say it's Mother Nature's way of enforcing "survival of the fittest"...

    Leave a comment:


  • jules
    replied
    Originally posted by gh
    We ain't remotely out of the woods. You should def. read this one:

    http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.c ... 603D03.DTL


    <<...In a disturbing new projection, health officials say up to 40 percent of Americans could get swine flu this year and next and several hundred thousand could die without a successful vaccine campaign and other measures....>>
    Okay but what % of Americans are obese?

    Leave a comment:


  • rasb
    replied
    Originally posted by gh
    Originally posted by rasb
    [......I think more than a few people may have shrugged this one off a bit early....Hope not, but some scaring sounding possibilities...
    Blame it on 24-hour cable news, which builds things up bigger than they need to be (way bigger), then toss them aside when the rush is gone. North America got lucky in the initial wave, but when we get to our winter and people are inside breathing all over each other and fomites become the order of the day....

    The "good" news is that he cables will be aware of this latest report and I'm sure they're gearing up to scare—rather than inform—people again.
    True enough, gh...
    But the reason that I posted, back on July 19th, was due to the intersection of the swine/flu to obesity link on here, and some "jungle drums" that I was reading/hearing based on opinions from some who are far more expert than thou or me, on possiblities for the future of this virus.
    Of course, not only the media outlets, but some "experts" make a living from being somewhat alarmist, to say the least. But I went and did a bit of research (if you can call internet sources research), and it seemed to me that there were credible sources, with nothing to be gained from alarmism, hoping that we got the swine flu vaccine in place before the next big flu season... That got my attention...

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  • gh
    replied
    Originally posted by rasb
    [......I think more than a few people may have shrugged this one off a bit early....Hope not, but some scaring sounding possibilities...
    Blame it on 24-hour cable news, which builds things up bigger than they need to be (way bigger), then toss them aside when the rush is gone. North America got lucky in the initial wave, but when we get to our winter and people are inside breathing all over each other and fomites become the order of the day....

    The "good" news is that he cables will be aware of this latest report and I'm sure they're gearing up to scare—rather than inform—people again.

    Leave a comment:


  • dal4018
    replied
    Originally posted by Pego
    What a discovery! The sick and morbidly obese (sick, really) have a greater chance to be killed by flu than the healthy folk. WOW!
    Pego saw a 14 yr old boy in the newspapers he weighed 555 POUNDS LOOKS LIKE HE'LL BE NEXT!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Leave a comment:

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