2009 College Football Predictions

[Marlow]

The house wants 50% on team A and 50% on team B.

Aha. So they factor in what biases already exist. If ND is 'really' a 3-pt underdog, the line will be even, cuz Vegas knows ND will attract more bettors for them.

[Avante]

The house wants 50% on team A and 50% on team B.

Aha. So they factor in what biases already exist. If ND is 'really' a 3-pt underdog, the line will be even, cuz Vegas knows ND will attract more bettors for them.

There's an actual science to all this. If you plan on playing seriously you'll be spending a few hours a week looking for those "spots" where one team has most of the advantages. And the betting line seems out of wack. Keep in mind a team will be one of four things...

home favorite
home dog
road favorite
road dog

It's up to the player to research how these teams perform in whatever role they are in that week. Then there's all kinds of trends and stats that need to be addressed.

Notre Dame doesn't get the respect they once did. So unless they are playing a cream puff at home the line is usually pretty accurate.

Of the four "spots" a team can be in the biggest winner is....home dog. A team at home getting points, not a bad play from an historical perspective.

[jazzcyclist]

Avante, would you care to explain to us how the betting lines help to determine who gets to play for the crystal football? And are you really suggesting that Boise State's 2009 schedule, which includes not only a division I-AA team but also division II team, is tougher than USC's 2009 schedule?

[Avante]

Avante, would you care to explain to us how the betting lines help to determine who gets to play for the crystal football? And are you really suggesting that Boise State's 2009 schedule, which includes not only a division I-AA team but also division II team, is tougher than USC's 2009 schedule?

You struck out twice there.

I'm not saying the betting line has anything to do with the BCS. I'm saying that the betting line tells the public who the favorites/underdogs are. How could a point spread effect anything having to do with rankings? It's after the teams have been ranked that it gets interesting. Especially when a higher ranked team is an underdog.

You totally misunderstood me as far as USC and Boise State went. USC has played the far superior schedule. Hell, how obvious can that be? My point was how could Boise State be ranked ahead of USC because they definitely have played the weaker schedule. I was giving an example of just how screwed up the BCS is. Better?

[jazzcyclist]

Avante, would you care to explain to us how the betting lines help to determine who gets to play for the crystal football? And are you really suggesting that Boise State's 2009 schedule, which includes not only a division I-AA team but also division II team, is tougher than USC's 2009 schedule?

You struck out twice there.

I'm not saying the betting line has anything to do with the BCS. I'm saying that the betting line tells the public who the favorites/underdogs are. How could a point spread effect anything having to do with rankings? It's after the teams have been ranked that it gets interesting. Especially when a higher ranked team is an underdog.

You totally misunderstood me as far as USC and Boise State went. USC has played the far superior schedule. Hell, how obvious can that be? My point was how could Boise State be ranked ahead of USC because they definitely have played the weaker schedule. I was giving an example of just how screwed up the BCS is. Better?

I think I understand you now. You use the point spreads to determine upsets, while I hang my hat on the BCS rankings, and I guess the word "upset" is an subjective term. And I have to admit that you're right on the Boise State schedule thing, because I totally missed your point on that one.

[gh]

The house wants 50% on team A and 50% on team B.

Aha. So they factor in what biases already exist. If ND is 'really' a 3-pt underdog, the line will be even, cuz Vegas knows ND will attract more bettors for them.

That's about right, but the general public never knows how much swing rabid favoritism brings to the table. I once read somewhere that I trust (but now forget) that you can consistently make money against the spread by betting against the New York teams to cover, because of the double whammy of a plethora of fervid--read illogical--NYC fans combined with the sheer numbers the bring to the table.

On the other hand, if that were true, then every semi-serious player would know that theory, and that by now has probably brought the numbers back in line with (un)reality!

[jazzcyclist]

Another reason 1-A football shouldn't relinquish control of its post-season to the NCAA is those pathetic trophies.

[Davidokun]

couple of talking heads on the radio this afternoon; one a local guy who is a Notre Dame alum and rabid Irish honk; the other was a national writer whose name I didn't catch. They were basically excoriating the BCS setup and how the voters (and the obviously flawed computer models) don't seem to account for strength of schedule, making all W's equal, so teams that play tougher schedules get screwed.

An alternate viewpoint:

The BCS computer formulas don't care about style points. They do care about schedule strength, though. That's why 8-0 Iowa, despite sitting just eighth in the coaches poll, currently stands next in line behind Florida/Alabama/Texas in the BCS race.

Say what you want about the Hawkeyes' decidedly ugly brand of football -- they've beaten more BCS-conference opponents with winning records (7-1 Penn State, 5-2 Wisconsin, 5-2 Arizona, 5-3 Iowa State and 5-3 Michigan) than any undefeated team and their opponents' combined record of 38-22 (.633) is far better than that of any other top 10 team.

Hence, five of the six BCS computer polls currently rank Iowa No. 1, placing the Hawkeyes solidly in fourth in the overall standings.

Poll Watching

[jazzcyclist]

This morning on ESPN's College Gameday, Phil Knight was the guest handicapper, and when it came to pick the winner of the UCLA-Oregon State game, Knight picked Oregon State. Host Chris Fowler noticed that there was no reaction from the rabid college students who surrounded the stage, and said that anyone else who picked the Beavers would have been booed in that setting, but the students knew to lay off of Knight. It must be nice to walk down the streets of Eugene when you're Phil Knight, as I'm sure Ducks sports can hold their own with Rush Limbaugh's ditto-heads when it comes to shameless sycophancy. I wonder who would be greeted with the most genuflecting if he walked into NBA, NFL or MLB locker room, Phil Knight or Barack Obama?

[Conor Dary]

This morning on ESPN's College Gameday, Phil Knight was the guest handicapper, and when it came to pick the winner of the UCLA-Oregon State game, Knight picked Oregon State. Host Chris Fowler noticed that there was no reaction from the rabid college students who surrounded the stage, and said that anyone else who picked the Beavers would have been booed in that setting, but the students knew to lay off of Knight. It must be nice to walk down the streets of Eugene when you're Phil Knight, as I'm sure Ducks sports can hold their own with Rush Limbaugh's ditto-heads when it comes to shameless sycophancy. I wonder who would be greeted with the most genuflecting if he walked into NBA, NFL or MLB locker room, Phil Knight or Barack Obama?

Jazz...you are just jealous that your school doesn't have its own billionaire.

When i was at Oregon 30 years ago, there might have been a football team but few noticed. Of course, Dan Fouts and Bobby Moore went there, but other than that...

How, things have changed....Go Ducks...

[jazzcyclist]

Jazz...you are just jealous that your school doesn't have its own billionaire.

You're absolutely right I'm jealous. I wish we had a sugar daddy in Baton Rouge who loved LSU track and field and LSU football. We haven't won a track or football championships since the 2007-08 school year, and that's a long time for us spoiled folks down here in Cajun country.

[Conor Dary]

With a 24 point lead and 7 mins to go, it looks very good for the Ducks!



On to the Rose Bowl.... hopefully.

[jazzcyclist]

Make no mistake. USC was taken to the woodshed.
Go Ducks!

[Avante]

I saw this coming a mile away. Sure us USC fans can...we were missing some key componets like McCoy, Johnson etc. That won't fly because Oregon was missing Blount, Thurmond and a couple other defenders. USC did pound the Ducks in 2008...44-10 and 35-10 in 2006. Oregon winning in 2007...24-17. So with this butt kicking things are about even as far as the last few years go. Not that any of that matters unless your a wimply USC fan trying to ease the pain :cry: Yes it worked...hahahaha!!!!!

The smallish quick running back, seems to give the Trojans fits. Is that the blueprint on how to beat them? That and a QB who can extend plays. A pocket passer and a big power back isn't how you beat the Trojans. Or so it appears.

The sad thing for Trojan fans....James has at least two more years as a Duck.

[donley2]

Florida hasn't played a non-conference opponent outside the state of Florida since..... 1991!

News Flash! When you play in the SEC, you don't need to play anyone else to prove yourself.

Bullshit! The way Florida AND LSU schedule non-conference games is a joke. Tennessee is in the SEC, and look at the teams they've played out of conference in the last decade, and most were home-and-homes. Furthermore, USC has arguably been the most respected team in college football over the last decade, but their non-conference schedule is something to be proud of. Why doesn't Florida play Miami every year? One of our local sports radio guys had one of LSU's dozens of associate athletic directors on to discuss LSU's scheduling, and he gave a cock-and-bull explanation that no one believed. When people try and blow smoke up your ass like that, they're usually hiding something. In the case of LSU and Florida, I believe the reason is cowardice. On the other hand, they have combined to take home four of the last six crystal footballs, so I guess your can't blame them for not wanting to risk.

You are obviously passionate about college football and dislike the weak schedules as shown by your wording here. I would however strongly contend that if you are an upper tier SEC, Big 12 or Pac 10 (an every once in a while big 10) you are IDIOTIC if you schedule home and home series with strong opponents. If the goal is to get to a BCS game (and particularly a BCS championship game) the risk/reward factor is not even close to being worth it. The BCS system has NEVER rewarded strong scheduling by people in the major conferences from day 1.