2009 College Football Predictions

[26mi235]

The top 4 ranked Big Ten teams all won against more highly rated opponents (all in the top 15), and in three of those they looked the much better team. NW (next ranked team) lost in OT with an injured kicker, MN lost by one point and even a diminished Michigan State (14 players suspended) was leading in the fourth quarter -- the league could have been 7 - 0.

The Big Ten could have also gone 2-5 if Penn State and Wisconsin had lost games that could have easily gone either way. By the way, depending on which poll you're looking at, Penn State was actually ranked higher than LSU.

Again, "that could have easily gone either way" is a statement about how the breaks come out. As it turned out, Miami got about 80% of the breaks in the game, and if they had gotten 95% they would have won. Getting 95% of the breaks is NOT "could have EASILY gone the other way".

[Pego]

The entire season we have heard "Big Ten is Overrated" chants. Bookies must have agreed, as only Penn St. (possibly Minnesota) were razor thin favorites. Well, four of them won, two (Northwestern and Minnesota) should have.

[jazzcyclist]

Again, "that could have easily gone either way" is a statement about how the breaks come out. As it turned out, Miami got about 80% of the breaks in the game, and if they had gotten 95% they would have won. Getting 95% of the breaks is NOT "could have EASILY gone the other way".

My point is that Wisconsin never delivered the knockout punch despite dominating the game statistically. They let Miami stay in the game until the very end. With 1:22 to go, Miami had a first and ten at their 41-yard line and were only down by six points. Surely the folks in Madison weren't celebrating at that point. Yes, Miami got the breaks, but turnovers, onsides kicks and big kickoff returns are all part of the game. Hell, even Iowa let Georgia Tech hang around too long, despite totally outclassing the Yellowjackets.

As to your larger point, I agree with you that Wisconsin, Iowa and Ohio State thoroughly dominated their bowl opponents and the Big Ten acquitted itself well during the bowl season. I just disagree with anyone who says that the outcome of the Miami-Wisconsin game was never in doubt.

[Daisy]

I just disagree with anyone who says that the outcome of the Miami-Wisconsin game was never in doubt.

You're right. Everyone in Madison was pleasantly surprised.

[jazzcyclist]

FYI, the teams with the 25 toughest schedules in 2009 were, in order:

• Mississippi State 0.868
  Alabama 0.842
  Georgia 0.807
  Virginia Tech 0.791
  Florida State 0.791
  Florida 0.79
  Oregon 0.778
  South Carolina 0.769
  Arizona 0.76
  Louisiana State 0.757
  Georgia Tech 0.756
  Baylor 0.756
  Miami (Florida) 0.755
  Oklahoma 0.751
  Arkansas 0.749
  Washington 0.748
  Texas 0.747
  Clemson 0.736
  Auburn 0.736
  Washington State 0.732
  Southern California 0.711
  Vanderbilt 0.711
  Virginia 0.707
  UCLA 0.705
  Connecticut 0.703

And the teams with the 25 weakest schedules in 2009 were:

• Temple 0.242
  Army 0.242
  Western Michigan 0.263
  Kent 0.276
  Middle Tennessee State 0.306
  Northern Illinois 0.317
  Ball State 0.336
  Texas-El Paso 0.345
  North Texas 0.359
  Louisiana-Lafayette 0.364
  Toledo 0.375
  Arkansas State 0.378
  Ohio 0.379
  Tulsa 0.384
  Louisiana-Monroe 0.386
  Southern Mississippi 0.402
  Florida Atlantic 0.402
  Buffalo 0.405
  Western Kentucky 0.409
  Central Michigan 0.41
  Southern Methodist 0.414
  Eastern Michigan 0.414
  Akron 0.432
  Hawaii 0.433
  New Mexico State 0.434

http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cf2009.htm

Also, here are the final conference power rankings in order, which I'm sure will please guru:

• SEC 0.711
  Big East 0.656
  Big 12 0.641
  Pac 10 0.624
  ACC 0.616
  Big Ten 0.613
  MWC 0.532
  Independent 0.531
  WAC 0.502
  CUSA 0.465
  MAC 0.424
  Sun Belt 0.409

[Pego]

I find it amusing that Big Ten went 2-0 over favored ACC opponents, yet the conference has a lower "power ranking".

[jazzcyclist]

I find it amusing that Big Ten went 2-0 over favored ACC opponents, yet the conference has a lower "power ranking".

These rankings are based solely on the regular season and conference championship games, so the Big Ten's bowl performances don't help them.

[Pego]

I find it amusing that Big Ten went 2-0 over favored ACC opponents, yet the conference has a lower "power ranking".

These rankings are based solely on the regular season and conference championship games, so the Big Ten's bowl performances don't help them.

I know that. It just suggests that those "power rankings" may leave something to be desired.

[jazzcyclist]

Whenever I think about this year's championship game, I will always wonder what might have been had McCoy not gotten hurt. McCoy was as important to this year's Longhorn offense as Vince Young was four year ago, and no thinking person believes that the 2005 Texas team would have beaten USC without Young. Texas was put in an impossible situation when they were forced to go with a freshman quarterback in that situation and I'm surprised that they were able to keep it as close they did.

[guru]

Texas was put in an impossible situation when they were forced to go with a freshman quarterback in that situation and I'm surprised that they were able to keep it as close they did.

If you take away that terrible shovel pass call that went for an INT TD at the end of the 1st half, Texas is leading by 4 with 3 minutes to go instead of down 3. With Texas not likely to be passing the ball on their own 7 with a lead(or consequently fumbling), it would have been interesting to see if Bama could have come back.

All moot now of course.

[jazzcyclist]

Gary Patterson is even more optimistic about next year's TCU team than he was about this year's, and said that he didn't expect this year's team to go 12-0 and make it to the BCS.

Patterson said on the eve of the game that he was a little surprised TCU had gone 12-0 and reached a BCS bowl game for the first time this season.

"I thought next year would be the best football team we had because lost seven starters off last year's defense that was No. 1 statistically in the nation," he said. "They kind of took it upon themselves as a whole group to kind of grow up."

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/ ... folo_N.htm

[jazzcyclist]

Lane Kiffin is headed to USC.

http://sports.espn.go.com/los-angeles/n ... id=4820737