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as our descent back into the Middle Ages continues

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  • Meanwhile....

    Coronavirus Map: Tracking the Spread of the Outbreak

    By K.K. Rebecca Lai, Jin Wu, Allison McCann, Derek Watkins, Jugal K. Patel and Richard HarrisUpdated Jan. 31, 2020

    The Wuhan coronavirus has sickened more than 9,700 people in Asia, according to statements from health officials. Many other cases are suspected but not confirmed. As of Friday morning, at least 213 people have died, all in China.


    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...pgtype=Article

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    • Originally posted by Conor Dary View Post
      Stocks sink again after airlines cancel flights to China.

      The broadening outbreak has roiled stock markets and raised alarms about possible harm to global economic growth.
      The S&P 500 suffered its sharpest decline of the year on Friday after major airlines in the United States said they would cancel flights to and from mainland China. It was the worst daily decline since October, and pushed the markets into negative territory for the year.
      And yet AMZN up over 7% in one day...everyone knows the virus will be pandemic so they are buying up everything on line... s/

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      • Originally posted by Conor Dary View Post
        WHO knows!
        He was the first?

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        • WHO's on first?

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          • Originally posted by Conor Dary View Post
            WHO's on first?
            No, WHO has been a little late to the party, sort of left it to the 'pitcher' (Tomorrow) too long.

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            • Meanwhile Indian scientists find the similarity of the virus to HIV-1 "unlikely to be fortuitous in nature". New conspiracy theory, or sound science?

              https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...01.30.927871v1

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              • Looks like the first confirmed death outside of China. 1 person in the Philippines.
                https://mobile.twitter.com/WHOPhilip...97298477424641

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                • Originally posted by ATK View Post
                  Looks like the first confirmed death outside of China. 1 person in the Philippines.
                  https://mobile.twitter.com/WHOPhilip...97298477424641
                  I'd still treat the death of this particular 44 year old as an anomaly rather than the coming of the apocolypse for non-old, non-sick people, at least until any further evidence emerges.
                  Secretary Duque said there are mixed pathogens in the 44-year-old male including Streptococcus pneumoniae and Haemophilus influenza type b.
                  They didn't commit to saying what the principle cause was, or if indeed the other two diseases were significantly active.

                  It may be all down to 2019-nCoV or it was just the final straw. I'm not sure if it's possible to determine contribution accurately, anyway.

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                  • Cause of death can be pretty subjective when there are multiple things going on.

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                    • Originally posted by xw View Post
                      Meanwhile Indian scientists find the similarity of the virus to HIV-1 "unlikely to be fortuitous in nature". New conspiracy theory, or sound science?

                      https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...01.30.927871v1
                      It isn't peer reviewed yet. Probably falls somewhere in the middle of those two statements.

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                      • Originally posted by xw View Post
                        Meanwhile Indian scientists find the similarity of the virus to HIV-1 "unlikely to be fortuitous in nature". New conspiracy theory, or sound science?

                        https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...01.30.927871v1
                        If you read the comments below the abstract, it is clear that all corona viruses have some similar proteins to HIV and this is why SARS responded to HIV treatments. 2019-nCov is not exactly the same as SARS but it's not unusual to have similar proteins to other viruses.

                        It looks like the team was trying to say "Here's information that might help in narrowing treatment requirements" but got carried away and overegged the description on it's likelihood.

                        Ther authors withdrew the paper after considering feedback (mostly critical) and will re-present after undertaking further analysis. Don't forget that this is a pre-print site so anything published hasn't been peer reviewed and is to be taken with a grain of salt.

                        In commercial publishing you don't get to see a paper until its been criticised in private by experts and then reworked. In this case, you are seeing the first draft and some public review by peers. If the authors were lucky, more scathing comments might have been emailed.

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                        • Sadly, I am not surprised. As the issue becomes increasingly polarized, the AV community is drawing more and more people toward rejecting most/all normal medical advice, rejecting science, distrust of authority, etc.

                          The mom has been criticized for not getting a flu shot and not giving her child Tamiflu, but both of those things are nowhere near 100% effective. The far bigger issue is that it appears she delayed taking a very sick child to a hospital in favor of trying more woo science first.

                          https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/4-ol...173253601.html

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                          • https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51492039

                            A Doctor regrets.....

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                            • In the FT today....

                              A third key to understanding epidemics was formulated surprisingly recently. In the 1970s the German mathematician Klaus Dietz outlined a quantity known as the reproduction number R, representing the average number of people that an infectious individual will infect in a specific population.

                              If R is less than one, the number of cases declines over time. For many viruses in the early stages of an outbreak, including pandemic flu, Ebola and (it seems) Covid-19, R is around two. Coincidentally, Kucharski writes, Facebook researchers found R=2 for their fastest propagating online content such as the 2014 ice-bucket challenge. One of the most infectious germs known causes measles, with R as high as 20 in a fully susceptible group — which is why vaccination rates above 95 per cent are required to achieve sufficient herd immunity to stop measles.

                              If you are pushing a product or political message, you want R to be as large as possible. If you are fighting a virus, whether biological or electronic, you have to minimise R. In the case of Covid-19 a vaccine is unlikely to be available until next year. Until then health authorities must rely on other measures, such as quarantining those infected and tracing their contacts.

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