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  • Alabama 24 LSU 17

    Home field advantage is huge in college football. Baton Rouge is not Tuscaloosa. Can LSU go into Crimson Tide country and beat them there.....nope! Alabama has lost one home game (27-28Auburn) in the last 4 seasons.In that same time frame LSU has lost 7 road games, one of those "in" Tuscaloosa.

    Yes LSU has played the tuffer schedule, yes they should be ranked over Alabama. Just like Wisconsin was ranked over MSU. We saw what a home field can do there, we will see that same situation Nov 5th.

    Trent Richardson will be the difference maker. He'll have Bama in 3rd and 2/3 which will keep a defense guessing. When Bama scores it will come off "long defense resting drives". When LSU scores it will come from "get ready defense you're right back out there"..plays. That will take it's toil on that Tiger D.

    Keep in mind this isn't LSU vs Alabama in a bowl game played in Texas. This is an LSU team going into Alabama and all that home cooking and trying to beat them in a place they rarely lose in. They can't do it!

  • #2
    Re: Alabama 24 LSU 17

    The early computer line has Bama favored by 4. Anything that small is subject to what I call the 'Breaks Rule', which states that during the game some random event (a receiver muffs a good throw and it's intercepted) can determine the outcome. So, while I agree with the line, I would certainly not bet real $$$ on it.

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    • #3
      Re: Alabama 24 LSU 17

      Originally posted by Marlow
      The early computer line has Bama favored by 4. Anything that small is subject to what I call the 'Breaks Rule', which states that during the game some random event (a receiver muffs a good throw and it's intercepted) can determine the outcome. So, while I agree with the line, I would certainly not bet real $$$ on it.
      As a road dog LSU...4-5 vs the spread going back to 2007.As a home fav Bama...11-12. As we can see there is no strong betting trend there. So I'm with you as far as $$$$$ goes. I need to see something like Bama home fav....20-3, LSU as a road dog...2-7. That's a 27-5 trend favoring Bama.

      If the game was in Baton Rouge, LSU would be favored by 2 1/2.

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      • #4
        Re: Alabama 24 LSU 17

        The sideline advantage(aka the Les Factor) is hugely in Bama's favor, and who knows what player scandal will hit LSU between now and Nov 5.

        Alabama 31

        LSU 21
        There are no strings on me

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Alabama 24 LSU 17

          Originally posted by guru
          The sideline advantage(aka the Les Factor) is hugely in Bama's favor, and who knows what player scandal will hit LSU between now and Nov 5.

          Alabama 31

          LSU 21
          I just can't see LSU (or anyone) beating Alabama in Tuscaloosa. If the game is anywhere else I'm not so sure Bama wins it. Huge advantage playing these big games at home. No not talking an obviously inferior team winning because of home field. I'm talking a game between evenly matched teams. Alabama wins at home.

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          • #6
            Re: Alabama 24 LSU 17

            Originally posted by Avante
            Huge advantage playing these big games at home.
            Avante, did you read the SI article about WHY home field is so advantageous? They said it was not
            a. crowd noise
            b. familiarity with environs
            c. sleeping in own bed

            Interesting article.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Alabama 24 LSU 17

              Originally posted by Marlow
              Originally posted by Avante
              Huge advantage playing these big games at home.
              Avante, did you read the SI article about WHY home field is so advantageous? They said it was not
              a. crowd noise
              b. familiarity with environs
              c. sleeping in own bed

              Interesting article.
              I've given up on sports writers/announcers. Sooooooooo many times they are totally wrong. You wanna know who are the best football pickers? It's not former coaches/players/insiders. It's....gamblers. Guys who study trends/stats/tendancies/histories in similiar "spots".

              Teams coming off a bye week on the road, teams at home heading into a bye week. Teams in that second consecutive road game. Teams playing that second consecutive home game. All that stuff does make a difference. Especially in the NFL where any team can beat any team. Yes LSU is beating Grambling under any circumstances, not true when they face another good SEC team. Now you look for advantages that favor one side or the other.

              So why do teams have more success at home?

              If I went with what I've read/heard.

              George Farmer (USC receiver) is a 10.2 guy.
              Sammy Watkins has "world class" speed.
              Ollie Matson won the 1952 Olympic 400m.
              Houston McTear looks just like Willie Smith (Auburn 400m) according to a picture in T&FN.
              Calvin Johnson is a sub4.3 guy.
              Otis Davis never ran collegiate track.
              Joey Galloway had "world class' speed.
              Gale Sayers was a "world class" long jumper. A 24 something in hs.
              Robert Griffin III has a legit shot at making the 2012 Olympic 400h team.
              Eric Dickerson had "world class" speed.
              Anyone who ever ran track....."he has world class speed!" :roll:

              There is a famous video of Bob Hayes catching a pass vs the Giants as Henry Carr tries to run him down. They run about 70 years with Carr right on his tail. Cute story if that really was Henry Carr. It's not, it's Carl "Spider" Lockart who was a decent collegiate hurdler. Carr was number 24, that's number 48 chasing Hayes. 48=Spider Lockart.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Alabama 24 LSU 17

                Originally posted by Marlow
                The early computer line has Bama favored by 4. Anything that small is subject to what I call the 'Breaks Rule', which states that during the game some random event (a receiver muffs a good throw and it's intercepted) can determine the outcome. So, while I agree with the line, I would certainly not bet real $$$ on it.
                The home team can survive more of these breaks than can the visiting team; maybe that is one of the differences.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Alabama 24 LSU 17

                  Originally posted by Avante
                  Originally posted by Marlow
                  Originally posted by Avante
                  Huge advantage playing these big games at home.
                  Avante, did you read the SI article about WHY home field is so advantageous? They said it was not
                  a. crowd noise
                  b. familiarity with environs
                  c. sleeping in own bed
                  Interesting article.
                  So why do teams have more success at home?
                  The in-depth SI analysis boiled MOST of home-field advantage to the subtle psychological pressure the refs feel (not even consciously) to 'please' the crowd. The refs want a 'good show' and to be seen as 'good refs'. Having the crowd continuously boo your calls is subconsciously uncomfortable. When the crowd cheers a homer call, they feel the approval personally. This happens even with 'neutral conference' refs in the Bowls. Whoever has the most vocal fans will affect the refs, without their even knowing it.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Alabama 24 LSU 17

                    Originally posted by Marlow
                    c. sleeping in own bed
                    They all stay in out of town hotels, now, to eliminate distractions. Home team is bused in the day of the game.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Alabama 24 LSU 17

                      Originally posted by Bruce Kritzler
                      Originally posted by Marlow
                      c. sleeping in own bed
                      They all stay in out of town hotels, now, to eliminate distractions. Home team is bused in the day of the game.
                      I was talking about regular season games, where 99% of teams do sleep in their own beds.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Alabama 24 LSU 17

                        Originally posted by Marlow
                        Originally posted by Avante
                        Originally posted by Marlow
                        Originally posted by Avante
                        Huge advantage playing these big games at home.
                        Avante, did you read the SI article about WHY home field is so advantageous? They said it was not
                        a. crowd noise
                        b. familiarity with environs
                        c. sleeping in own bed
                        Interesting article.
                        So why do teams have more success at home?
                        The in-depth SI analysis boiled MOST of home-field advantage to the subtle psychological pressure the refs feel (not even consciously) to 'please' the crowd. The refs want a 'good show' and to be seen as 'good refs'. Having the crowd continuously boo your calls is subconsciously uncomfortable. When the crowd cheers a homer call, they feel the approval personally. This happens even with 'neutral conference' refs in the Bowls. Whoever has the most vocal fans will affect the refs, without their even knowing it.
                        Historically speaking all teams have a better record at home than they do as roadwarriors. It has nothing to do with the refs. You are there in friendly surroundings that you are familiar with, there's the family/friends watching, you were in a better situation prior to the game, all that does make a difference. I liked playing at home better than boarding buses, and dreading the travel back home if we loss.

                        Another sports writer without a clue, you see winning/losing has nothing to do with it.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Alabama 24 LSU 17

                          Originally posted by Marlow
                          Originally posted by Bruce Kritzler
                          Originally posted by Marlow
                          c. sleeping in own bed
                          They all stay in out of town hotels, now, to eliminate distractions. Home team is bused in the day of the game.
                          I was talking about regular season games, where 99% of teams do sleep in their own beds.
                          They may sleep in their city of residence, but many programs have been having them rack out in local hotels for decades now.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Alabama 24 LSU 17

                            Originally posted by gh
                            They may sleep in their city of residence, but many programs have been having them rack out in local hotels for decades now.
                            Take ALL the college programs and count the teams that do that. A very small (but highly visible) minority.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Alabama 24 LSU 17

                              I'm talking the couple of 100 top-division schools; the others are only playing "football."

                              From cbssports.com, August of '09:

                              <<If it's Friday night in Gainesville and the Florida Gators are playing a football game the next day at The Swamp, Tim Tebow deserves a hotel room. How could he sleep in his apartment? He could not. He deserves a hotel room, and dammit, the University of Florida will spend the money to get him -- and his teammates, at a cost of roughly $40,000 for the season -- that room.

                              And it's the same thing at Oklahoma with Sam Bradford. And at North Carolina State with, um, whoever plays quarterback for North Carolina State. And at Tennessee and Oregon and Purdue and South Carolina and just about everywhere college football is played at the BCS level....>>

                              (it only takes 4 schools of the 342 to render your 99% false :evil: )

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