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Coronavirus Impact on Tokyo 2020

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  • Coronavirus Impact on Tokyo 2020

    The Coronavirus is terrible timing for the Olympic games in Tokyo.

    SARS took 9 months to get rid of. At the current rate of Coronavirus, it seems unlikely that the region will have anything under control by the summer. China is literally on fire right now and its throwing sparks across the globe. Fingers crossed nothing starts to catch.

    in 2016, there was Zika to worry about during Rio but Coronavirus is very different and far more infectious as its asymptomatic and already spreading person-to-person without direct contact. Tokyo already has a few confirmed cases and who knows how many the actual number is right now....

    Just also saw that the World Championships in Nanjing have been postponed to 2021.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/sport...irus-concerns/

    What does everyone think? Do you think we'll get to see a summer Olympics in 2020?

  • #2
    And what is the basis of your statement that it spreads from people before they display symptoms? I have heard concerns that this just might be the case but there is no evidence that it is. If you are not sure that this is the case then you are spreading rumors while presenting them as the 'truth'. While probably unrealistic (see the very recent (20 minutes ago) video reporting by a CNN crew in Beijing that were very recently in Wuhan), the 'hero' of SARs is saying that he thinks that the infection will peak in another ten days.

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    • #3
      Yes I forgot about Tokyo.....could be an interesting year.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by spikes007 View Post
        china is literally on fire right now and its throwing sparks across the globe.
        tafny!

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        • #5
          Originally posted by 26mi235 View Post
          And what is the basis of your statement that it spreads from people before they display symptoms? I have heard concerns that this just might be the case but there is no evidence that it is. If you are not sure that this is the case then you are spreading rumors while presenting them as the 'truth'. While probably unrealistic (see the very recent (20 minutes ago) video reporting by a CNN crew in Beijing that were very recently in Wuhan), the 'hero' of SARs is saying that he thinks that the infection will peak in another ten days.
          https://nationalpost.com/news/world/...ed-no-symptoms

          Someone who is coughing and/or sneezing is obviously going to be at risk of infecting more people, but if this is true, that this version of coronavirus is contagious before symptoms start, it is going to be very difficult to get the disease under control.

          Currently in the US, close contacts of known cases are being monitored, but allowed to live their lives freely, until they show symptoms. So if the CDC is wrong, if the virus can be spread before symptoms, we will likely see a lot more cases in the US.

          Also, as of yesterday, the CDC was only screening passengers on flights coming in from Wuhan. The governor of my state wants to screen passengers coming from any part of China, based on the number of cases outside of Wuhan, but we cannot until the CDC orders it.

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          • #6
            Meanwhile....

            W.H.O. Declares Global Emergency
            as Wuhan Coronavirus Spreads


            The World Health Organization declared on Thursday that the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak was a global health emergency, acknowledging that the disease now represents a risk beyond China, where it emerged last month.

            https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/30/h....co/dKpKWxiDw7

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            • #7
              It is interesting that while I have been following things relatively closely this is the first that I have seen and it has not been mention anywhere else. Since it is apparently a Lancet article it should be reliable. Cases that are asymptomatic are likely less communicable because probably the main vector is droplets spread from 1-6 feet by sneezing and coughing, and if not doing those things it would take more intimate contact. Contrast this with the measles which can be transmitted up to 60m/200' and which have longer time for contact and which infect more highly upon contact. That is why the reinfection rate for measles is over 10 and why infections have to be highly contained.

              The current count is 9925 with 9783 in China and 5806 in Hubei (Wuhan+). Of the 213 fatalities, 204 are from Hubei (3.5%), 9 from the rest of China (0.225%) and none yet from the 142 outside China. The overwhelmed Hubei cases are likely getting much less treatment, but are also the 'oldest' and it takes a while to die from the virus.

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              • #8
                Death rate is part of the story... if the virus is sending a large percentage of victims to the hospital, that is super problematic. Hospitals in the US are already pretty swamped, especially with flu season ongoing, and if the virus takes hold in an area and hundreds of people need ICU-type care, that will quickly overwhelm local resources.

                Hopefully not an issue.

                Our local high school has a trip planned to Japan in April. I hope it works out for them...

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by 26mi235 View Post
                  It is interesting that while I have been following things relatively closely this is the first that I have seen and it has not been mention anywhere else. Since it is apparently a Lancet article it should be reliable. Cases that are asymptomatic are likely less communicable because probably the main vector is droplets spread from 1-6 feet by sneezing and coughing, and if not doing those things it would take more intimate contact. Contrast this with the measles which can be transmitted up to 60m/200' and which have longer time for contact and which infect more highly upon contact. That is why the reinfection rate for measles is over 10 and why infections have to be highly contained.

                  The current count is 9925 with 9783 in China and 5806 in Hubei (Wuhan+). Of the 213 fatalities, 204 are from Hubei (3.5%), 9 from the rest of China (0.225%) and none yet from the 142 outside China. The overwhelmed Hubei cases are likely getting much less treatment, but are also the 'oldest' and it takes a while to die from the virus.
                  I'm a Chinese national, and there are case reports where some asymptomatic individuals infected as many as 4 people in their families. Our own CDC also warned that some patients with neglegible symptoms are still positive in nucleic acid tests and can still pass the virus onto others, more likely in close contact.

                  Fortunately, it does seem that the pathogenic power and fatality of the virus are quite low outside Hubei, and many cases of death outside the province were imported patients from Hubei after all. Why is that nobody knows - my guess is that after a couple of rounds of transmission the virus gets weaker. Hopefully MDs on this board could weigh in on this matter!

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                  • #10
                    After seeing the most recent Real Sports, it may be that the denial about the ongoing impact of Japan's nuclear accident is a bigger problem.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by 26mi235 View Post
                      And what is the basis of your statement that it spreads from people before they display symptoms? I have heard concerns that this just might be the case but there is no evidence that it is. If you are not sure that this is the case then you are spreading rumors while presenting them as the 'truth'.......
                      It appears spike007 is indeed correct with confirmation a 10 year old boy was positive but displayed no symptons.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by xw View Post
                        I'm a Chinese national, and there are case reports where some asymptomatic individuals infected as many as 4 people in their families. Our own CDC also warned that some patients with neglegible symptoms are still positive in nucleic acid tests and can still pass the virus onto others, more likely in close contact.

                        Fortunately, it does seem that the pathogenic power and fatality of the virus are quite low outside Hubei, and many cases of death outside the province were imported patients from Hubei after all. Why is that nobody knows - my guess is that after a couple of rounds of transmission the virus gets weaker. Hopefully MDs on this board could weigh in on this matter!
                        Fauci confirmed that they documented asymptomatic transmission in a press conference yesterday. Duration of exposure probably also influences transmission as well as viral load.

                        I wouldn't expect the virus to mutate so quickly. It's probably influenced by surveillance. Early on, probably mostly the sickest cases were being identified making the denominator artificially low. Now there is more testing and awareness so surveillance is now more sensitive (and finding cases sooner may help treatment controlling spread to at risk people, etc). Anyway, it will take a while before they get a better handle on the case fatality rate.

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                        • #13
                          Meanwhile....

                          With the coronavirus outbreak spreading in China, there's been a growing concern that the 2020 Olympics -- which begin in just six months -- are in jeopardy. However, Tokyo Olympic organizers revealed that there are no plans to postpone or cancel the upcoming games.

                          https://www.cbssports.com/olympics/n...irus-outbreak/

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                          • #14
                            I had a little play online and Wuhan to Tokyo is about the same distance as from New York to Austin or London to Athens (Greece not GA).

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Trickstat View Post
                              I had a little play online and Wuhan to Tokyo is about the same distance as from New York to Austin or London to Athens (Greece not GA).
                              How many flights per day may be a more important measure.

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